This is the first early-season meeting between these two teams. With some roster changes and injuries, this game is shaping up to be interesting. We’ve already seen both of these teams snag a win in this young season, and with the Sparks on the road tonight, we’ll see if they can hand the Mercury their first loss. Either way, though, this should be a fun game with a solid amount of veteran talent on both sides!
Julie Allemand Probable
Rickea Jackson Out
Rae Burrell Out
Cameron Brink Out
Natasha Mack Out
Kahleah Copper Out
With the Sparks still missing Cameron Brink, this game is going to be all about the veterans. Plum has come out looking stellar early this season, already having some massive scoring nights. However, the Mercury look dangerous this year with the additions of Satou Sabally and Alyssa Thomas; this team has taken a step forward. We saw both Thomas and Sabally dominate game one against the struggling Seattle Storm, each scoring over 20 points. As they head into their second home game of the season, the Mercury are in a solid position playing the Sparks this way. They’ll have the advantage coming into this one.
For the Sparks to have a chance in this game, they’re going to need to keep scoring in the paint, as their three-point shooting has been a bit up and down so far. If they can rely on Hamby and Plum attacking the rim while also getting to the line, that’s where their offense will thrive. Defensively, we’ll need to see more from them. They’ve been giving up far too many points at the rim; they need to do a better job of getting to the ball at the point of attack before the Mercury can get inside. If they’re able to do that, they should be able to force the ball outside, where Phoenix has struggled to convert shots.
The Mercury, on the other hand, need to attack the interior. That’s probably going to start on the defensive end, though. They’ll need to be solid at grabbing the defensive rebounds and then running in transition. If they can make smart plays and get the ball in transition before the Sparks can set up their half-court defense, they’ll likely bulldoze them. Overall, I like the chances that the Mercury can win the paint battle tonight in general.
I’m leaning towards the Mercury tonight; I like the additions they’ve made, and this looks like a serious team. Even though we’ve only seen them play one game in the regular season, their veteran additions can’t be overlooked. If the Sparks were closer to full health, I think they’d have a legitimate argument to take this game, but until that happens, I think they’re going to be about a .500 team. So, I’m taking the Mercury moneyline, the under on the 160.5 total points, and the PHO -5.5 spread.
Money line: LAS (+190) / PHO (-230)
Total Points: 160.5
Spread: +5.5 LAS (-105) / -5.5 PHO (-115)
With the injuries already piling up for the Sparks, Plum has taken over as the top scorer for the team. In her first two games, she’s already averaging 27.5 points per game after a huge 37-point performance in the season opener. However, I think this line is a bit high considering what we’ve observed from her over the last couple of seasons. I think grabbing the under is a smart move.
Game one of the series saw Sabally come out strong with a 27-point performance against the Seattle Storm. With how often we saw her getting to the line and having the ball in her hands, it’s clear she will be leading this offense for the Mercury. She did all this in just 26 minutes on the court; if she gets a more significant workload, I believe 23 points could be in the bag tonight against the Sparks.
Hamby has been putting in some strong work early this year. She’s already had back-to-back games with 10 rebounds each. She averaged 9.2 boards during the regular season the last two years, so she’s no stranger to collecting rebounds. LA relied heavily on her in both games as well, with her playing over 35 minutes each game. This should be a solid performance as long as the Mercury aren’t making all their shots!
This line seems a bit too high. We’ve only seen one game of Thomas with the Mercury, and while she did have 6 assists, reaching 9 against the Sparks seems optimistic. She averages about 8 per game over her last two years at Connecticut, but the under looks really appealing tonight.