O'Sullivan's Friday WNBA Picks: Storm vs Sun, Mercury vs Wings, Arike Ogunbowale to shine, Dream vs Sky
Arike Ogunbowale of the Wings.@DallasWings on Twitter

O'Sullivan's Friday WNBA Picks: Storm vs Sun, Mercury vs Wings, Arike Ogunbowale to shine, Dream vs Sky

Seattle Storm at Connecticut Sun, 7 pm Eastern, Phoenix Mercury at Dallas Wings, 8 pm, Atlanta Dream at Chicago Sky, 8 pm.

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Before we get to tonight’s WNBA picks, now that the NBA season is over, a recap:

Seattle O’Sullivan 2021-2022 NBA Season Final Results: 238-246-7, -$681.89

(Thursday: 1-0, +$10.00)

NBA Playoffs: 37-23, +$150.55

(I had a .617 winning percentage in the playoffs, and went 6-0 in my Finals picks. I should’ve been doing over/unders all season.)

(curses heavens)

Okay. Now, let’s focus.

Seattle O’Sullivan 2022 WNBA Season so far: 54-37, +$114.61

(Yesterday: 1-0, +$6.82)

(Standing Caveat: The universe is chaotic. Life is unpredictable. Things happen. Like injuries. And COVID protocols. In following Seattle O’Sullivan’s betting advice, be advised that you should always monitor your bets during the day to make certain unforeseen things have not occurred which might change your wagering opinion. Thank you.)

Seattle Storm at Connecticut Sun, 7 pm Eastern

The Pick: Seattle +8 (-113), bet $7.50 to win $6.68

I like Seattle to show a little heart, here. They’re not the team they were even last season, but they’re still full of veterans who aren’t going to want to lay down for Connecticut. They fell to the Sun on June 5, but by a respectable seven points. Also, the Storm have won four straight. Not to mention, while the Sun are 11-4, they’re only 8-7 against the spread. Connecticut’s defense is not what it was last year, while Seattle has been improved on that end of the floor, with a defensive rating third in the WNBA. Finding a line of 8 instead of 7.5 tips the scales in Seattle’s favor.

Phoenix Mercury at Dallas Wings, 8 pm Eastern

The Pick: Dallas -4.5 (-114), bet $7.50 to win $6.58

I’m combining two thoughts here: Dallas is a very-solid 9-5 against the spread, and they’ve also lost four in a row (six of seven). They need this win. It’d be nice if Arike Ogunbowale would stop kicking things (basketballs, scoring tables, whatnot) and getting ejections and technicals at crucial moments in ballgames. I do expect she may have learned her lesson at this point. Meanwhile, still without Brittney Griner, Phoenix is getting nothing on the glass - their 46.6% rebound rate is last in the league. The Wings’ rate is third. I like Dallas to put together a full performance tonight and get a cover.

Atlanta Dream at Chicago Sky, 8 pm Eastern

The Pick: Atlanta +9.5 (-114), bet $7.50 to win $6.58

Man, this is a lot of points to be giving. The Sky beat the Dream by eight in Atlanta on June 3, so it stands to reason they should win by more at home, right? Not so fast - I still think Chicago tends to let teams hang around when they shouldn’t. Atlanta rebounds the ball at a better percentage than any team in the WNBA save for Connecticut, while Chicago is eighth. The Dream are helped on the glass by their pace, which is the third-fastest, while the Sky’s is seventh. Overall, Chicago has a net rating of 5.2 but Atlanta’s is not bad at -0.4. That math adds up to almost three points less than the spread. I think Chicago wins, but not by double-digits.

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