O'Sullivan's Friday WNBA Picks: Sky vs Sun, Liberty vs Fever, Storm vs Wings, Mystics v Lynx, Dream v Mercury
Seattle O’Sullivan 2022 WNBA Season so far: 48-31, +$112.99
(Wednesday: 1-1, +$1.90)
(Standing Caveat: The universe is chaotic. Life is unpredictable. Things happen. Like injuries. And COVID protocols. In following Seattle O’Sullivan’s betting advice, be advised that you should always monitor your bets during the day to make certain unforeseen things have not occurred which might change your wagering opinion. Thank you.)
Chicago Sky at Connecticut Sun, 7 pm Eastern
The Pick: Chicago +6.5 (-118), bet $8.85 to win $7.50
Even though Chicago lost to Washington on Wednesday, they came back from a 12-point deficit to almost pull it out at the end (netting me the +2.5 cover, so thank you!), and I continue to buy into the Sky’s determination to be more consistent than last season. So I think they’ll give Connecticut a game tonight. The Sun have won four in a row, but a third of the way through the year, their defense has slipped a bit from last year - just a bit, but Chicago’s is right behind them. This is the first matchup between the two teams since last year’s fierce (and ultimately, surprising) playoff series, so I think both squads will be spoiling for a battle. That indicates a tight battle, which means I’ll take the points, please.
New York Liberty at Indiana Fever, 7 pm Eastern
The Pick: Indiana +3.5 (-114), bet $11.40 to win $10
I’m a broken record on this one, but I don’t care. The Fever play hard, especially at home. This is a game they can win. Besides, where does New York get off being favored against anyone? On the road? Yes, they just beat Minnesota, but I’m not buying the Liberty (just yet, anyway). New York has the second-worst offensive rating in the league, and turn the ball over more than any other team except Atlanta. These are two bad teams, one of which is on the rise, the other is adrift. I’ll take the team on the rise, especially as a “home dog.”
Seattle Storm at Dallas Wings, 8 pm Eastern
The Pick: Dallas +2.5 (-110), bet $11 to win $10
Here’s another “home dog” I’ll take with little hesitation. Dallas has already beaten the Storm in Seattle. The Wings are 7-4 against the spread. The Storm are 4-7 ATS and yet to cover the spread on the road (0-2). Right now, Dallas is +4000 to win the WNBA Championship and I have three people on my staff whose specific job responsibility it is to make sure I don’t just put a wild play on that - yet. But I might re-assess if Dallas takes another step tonight, which I think they will.
Washington Mystics at Minnesota Lynx, 8 pm Eastern
The Pick: Minnesota +6.5 (-106), bet $7.96 to win $7.50
(shrug) Another “home dog.” I think Washington wins this game but Minnesota keeps it close enough to cover. The Lynx are slowly, raggedly, figuring things out. I’m not looking at their WNBA Championship future price - at all. But they’re not as bad as their start indicates. Minnesota lost by 12 to the Mystics at home on May 8, but they’ve improved since then. And once again, the Lynx always have an advantage in the middle with Sylvia Fowles. Fowles and her teammates rebound on the offensive glass at at 32.8% rate, third in the WNBA. I think that advantage is enough to keep them close tonight.
Atlanta Dream at Phoenix Mercury, 10 pm Eastern
The Pick: Phoenix -168, bet $10 to win $5.95
This time, I’ll take this favorite, but I’ll pay a little extra to do it and not worry about the 3.5 points. Phoenix finally won on June 5 after losing seven straight, and it was an important win, holding off the Los Angeles Sparks to get upright. They’re a veteran team led by Skylar Diggins-Smith, and that should be enough tonight against an Atlanta team that’s exciting to imagine in the future but who right now has the worst offensive rating and worst turnover percentage in the WNBA. The Dream are going to have some growing pains as they get better and better, and right now I don’t think they’re weathered enough to win games on the road like this…give them another month of two.
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