O'Sullivan's Sunday WNBA Twilight Game Picks: Mystics vs Sky, Wings vs Aces, Sparks vs Mercury, Sun vs Storm
Seattle O’Sullivan 2022 WNBA Season so far: 42-24, +$128.06
(Friday: 4-1, +$27.00)
Washington Mystics at Chicago Sky, 6 pm Eastern
The Pick: Washington +8 (-110), bet $11 to win $10
Speaking of recency bias…This line is putting way too much into Chicago beating Washington on May 22 by nine points, 82-73. I agree with anyone who says that game wasn’t that close. But as some experts (cough, me, cough) said at the time, it was a nationally-televised game and Candace Parker would take it as an opportunity to show the country the defending-champs Sky were still a force. Today? Enh. The game’s on Amazon Prime, and Chicago’s already shown the country. If there’s anything the Sky do reliably, it’s not play to their potential when fewer people are watching. Parker has said so herself. Washington is the most improved team in the league, they will want to show that May 22 was an aberration, and it’s too many points for two teams pretty close in skill. I’ll take another underdog.
Dallas Wings at Las Vegas Aces, 6 pm Eastern
The Pick: Las Vegas -7 (-112), bet $8.33 to win $7.50
Shocked, huh? You shouldn’t be. Dallas played great on Friday, pounding the Seattle Storm in their own gym, 68-51. You know who probably took note of that pounding? The Las Vegas Aces. I think this line is another one laden with recency bias. What’s more, I think it’s ignoring what I know about my Wings – they all too often follow up a great performance with a lackluster one. Las Vegas is the best team in the league. The Aces lead the league in offensive rating, assist/turnover ratio, and defensive rebound percentage. And, they don’t typically give lackluster performances. Most important, I need to show my Dallas Wings they can’t just expect my support without earning it . . . that may be a rationalization. I’m working out some stuff, here. But I like the Aces today.
Los Angeles Sparks at Phoenix Mercury, 6 pm Eastern
The Pick: Phoenix -160, bet $8 to win $5
There was no point spread to be found on this game, so I’ll pay a high price for just a straight win here. Phoenix has lost seven in a row but the last two were tight to good teams, and frankly, they should’ve beaten the Sun on Thursday. Los Angeles continues to bounce up and down, fail to impress me, and not guard the basketball (they’re the worst in the WNBA in defensive rating). The Mercury are not what they were last year but they’re not as bad as their record indicates, and they have pride. They’ll take a step forward against the Sparks.
Connecticut Sun at Seattle Storm, 6 pm Eastern
The Pick: Connecticut +3 (-113), bet $11.30 to win $10; Connecticut +124, bet $5 to win $6.20
Wait, you’re going to give me three points for arguably the best team in the WNBA (I think it’s the Aces, but work with me here) against a team that never has an easy time closing games at home? Yes, please. I’ll take Connecticut, with the second-best record in the WNBA, against a Seattle team that’s 3-4 against the spread at home. The Sun’s defense may have slipped from last season, but it’s still better than the Storm’s. But their offense, which is second in the league, is much better than Seattle’s, which is tenth. The Sun also get after it on the offensive glass, while the Storm are struggling to keep opponents off of it. I think this is a statement game for Connecticut, and a statement that Seattle might just be on fumes.
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