Bria Hartley of the Indiana Fever.
Bria Hartley of the Indiana Fever.@IndianaFever on Twitter

O'Sullivan's Sunday WNBA Afternoon Game Picks: Lynx vs Liberty, Fever vs Dream – liking the road underdogs

Minnesota Lynx at New York Liberty, 2 pm Eastern, Indiana Fever at Atlanta Dream, 3 pm.

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Seattle O’Sullivan 2022 WNBA Season so far: 42-24, +$128.06

(Friday: 4-1, +$27.00)

(Standing Caveat: The universe is chaotic. Life is unpredictable. Things happen. Like injuries. And COVID protocols. In following Seattle O’Sullivan’s betting advice, be advised that you should always monitor your bets during the day to make certain unforeseen things have not occurred which might change your wagering opinion. Thank you.)

Minnesota Lynx at New York Liberty, 2 pm Eastern

The Pick: Minnesota +3.5 (-108), bet $8.10 to win $7.50; Minnesota +134, bet $4.00 to win $5.36

The other day, my editor teased me that my infatuation with the Minnesota Lynx was just as bad, if not worse, than my infatuation with the Dallas Wings. First of all, I can hold two infatuations in my brain at the same time. Second, I don’t think that’s true – I genuinely think Dallas could win the WNBA Championship this year if they screwed their heads on right, while Minnesota doesn’t have enough pieces. But I do think Minnesota is better than they’re showing . . . and they’re definitely better than New York. So them getting 3.5 points is enough for me to continue my faith in them, editorial teasing be damned. The Lynx beat the Liberty on May 24, 84-78, so they won’t be intimidated going into Barclay Center. New York has the worst offensive rating in the WNBA, and while Minnesota is only eighth, they’re almost eight points better. Minnesota’s much better on the boards, and New York is still without Betnijah Laney, their best scorer. I’m taking the Lynx, and willing to endure mockery for it.

Indiana Fever at Atlanta Dream, 3 pm Eastern

The Pick: Indiana +6.5 (-112), bet $8.40 to win $7.50

Now, I haven’t gotten teased for my love of the Indiana Fever. I assume that’s because it’s understood that my faith in them, their great rookie class, and their new coach Carlos Knox, is absolutely justified. The Fever lost to the Liberty by 13 on Wednesday, but that was the second game of a back-to-back on the road. I’m not totally throwing it out, but I do think today’s spread has the recency bias of that game, along with the conventional wisdom that Indiana is the WNBA’s punching bag. A combination of old bias and recent bias, if you will. The Fever are better with Knox guiding them. Now, Atlanta is better too, but they’re at the “beat bad teams but not good ones” stage. While better with Rhyne Howard, I don’t think they’re quite at the level of automatically taking care of business. Combine that with the Fever’s renewed energy at the top, and I’ll take the points here too.

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