Betnijah Laney of the Liberty.
Betnijah Laney of the Liberty.@nyliberty on Twitter

O'Sullivan's Tuesday WNBA Picks: Wings vs Sun, Dream vs Mystics, Fever vs Sky, Liberty vs Lynx; underdog night

Dallas Wings at Connecticut Sun, 7 pm Eastern, Atlanta Dream at Washington Mystics, 7 pm, Indiana Fever at Chicago Sky, 8 pm, New York Liberty at Minnesota Lynx, 8 pm.

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Heh. Well, it was the Liz Cambage Revenge Game, all right. Just in a different way, I suppose…

Seattle O’Sullivan 2022 WNBA Season so far: 23-17, +$42.26

(Yesterday: 0-1, -$11.00)

(Standing Caveat: The universe is chaotic. Life is unpredictable. Things happen. Like injuries. And COVID protocols. In following Seattle O’Sullivan’s betting advice, be advised that you should always monitor your bets during the day to make certain unforeseen things have not occurred which might change your wagering opinion. Thank you.)

Dallas Wings at Connecticut Sun, 7 pm Eastern

The Pick: Dallas +8.5 (-106), bet $10.60 to win $10

Ah, come on. Don’t look at me that way. Connecticut may be 4-1 but Dallas is only a half-game behind at 4-2. The Wings followed up a big win at Phoenix by taking care of business against the Lynx at home, perhaps a sign that they’ve figured out they need to always be closing and can never take their foot off the gas. C’mon, don’t look at me that way. You want stats, now that we’ve got a bit of a sample size? No problem. Dallas’s offensive rating is 103.4, fourth in the WNBA and only 5.1 points behind the Sun’s. The Wings are 3-0 against the spread on the road so far this season. Hey, I’m not saying they’re going to win the game outright, just that 8.5 points is a whole lot for an improving team…Don’t look at me that way.

Atlanta Dream at Washington Mystics, 7 pm Eastern

The Pick: Atlanta +8.5 (-110), bet $11 to win $10

See? I’m picking other underdogs too! I pick underdogs all the time! Atlanta and Washington have both improved from last season. Perhaps Washington has improved more, sure, but Atlanta has started off 4-2 with a rookie superstar, Rhyne Howard, who’s averaging 20.5 points per game and probably doesn’t know Atlanta is supposed to be rebuilding. The biggest improvement for the Dream so far has been defensively; at a 94.9 rating, they’re ranked third in the league (less than a point from second). The Mystics are right behind them, at fourth with 95.8. These teams played on Friday, with Washington winning by 5. Howard and Atlanta surely know they can play with the Mystics, and surely want to avenge that loss. I think it’s a hard-fought, defensive battle, which means “take the points.”

Indiana Fever at Chicago Sky, 8 pm Eastern

The Pick: Indiana +13.5 (-113), bet $11.30 to win $10

I know I went away from my informal rule, “Take Indiana when they’re getting double-digit points,” on Sunday, but that was because they were playing a Connecticut team immediately after taking them to the wire in the previous game. Call it a codicil of the informal rule. I’m back on the Fever tonight, because Chicago didn’t just play them, they played the Mystics on national television. I wouldn’t be surprised if Candace Parker, who had a great game that day, is still lingering on it a bit and looking past the Fever. Indiana’s net rating this year is “only” -10.1, which I suppose is greater than 10 which I suppose counters my rule. But wait, aha - I bet you if you threw out Sunday’s game against the Sun it would be under 10. Huzzah! The rule (with codicil) works! Seriously, I like Indiana’s heart, and while they’ve still got a ways to go before they’re getting favored in games, this line is lingering like Parker’s mind. It’s lingering on Chicago winning the championship last year. Chicago wins, but by fewer than 13.5 points.

New York Liberty at Minnesota Lynx, 8 pm Eastern

The Pick: Minnesota -225, bet $15 to win $6.67

I’ve been “spoken to” (read, chastised and mocked) for making WNBA moneyline picks where the price is way too high. I’ve taken the note, but -225 isn’t that high, I don’t trust the Lynx that much at this point, and above all else, the point of this whole thing is to make money, isn’t it? Yes, yes it is. So I’ll pay a steep price for a Minnesota team that’s got talent and is at home but, you know, still is 1-6. Also, they’re playing a New York team that’s 1-4 and lost its last road game by 33. The Liberty have the worst net rating (-17.8) in the league, and though the Lynx are only one spot ahead of them, they are, uh, one spot ahead of them. New York’s starting center is Stefanie Dolson, a solid player who’s undersized and who should get feasted on by Lynx Hall of Famer Sylvia Fowles. Minnesota’s backcourt is improving, and the Lynx should get the win.

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