WNBA Saturday: O'Sullivan, in recovery from Aces moneyline loss, picks Mystics at Wings, Liberty at Dream

(sigh; hiccup; sigh)

Seattle O’Sullivan so far: 41-34-1

Washington Mystics at Dallas Wings, 1 pm EDT

The Pick: Washington +6.5 (-118), Dallas (-250)

I know, I know. “‘Middles’ are stupid.” But hear me out. Even though they lost their last game, Washington has been playing well. That loss to the Sparks was by 7, but it was close until the end. The game before that, they beat the Storm in Seattle; they were in charge the whole time. As I’ve been saying, Tina Charles has been unstoppable all season, leading all WNBA scorers at 25.3 points per game. As I’ve been tearing my hair out, as a new starter Leilani Mitchell has been burying threes. The Mystics have latched onto a new lineup and their offense has picked up. But I’m not abandoning Dallas. They return home after pasting Indiana, out-rebound Washington by two (37.7 to 35.6), and despite a 7-8 record, have a +3.1 point differential. They’re the better team, but Washington is discovering its own identity with each game. (shrug) Hey, people do stupid things all the time. You think this is the last stupid thing I'll do today?

New York Liberty at Atlanta Dream, 7 pm EDT

The Pick: Atlanta (-188)

After starting the season 4-1, New York has gone 3-7 (and 3-7 against the spread). The Liberty are coming off two absolute pastings from the Chicago Sky, in which they shot 21.4% and 16.0% from the three-point line, respectively. It was as if they heard me say after Tuesday’s rout that they couldn’t shoot any worse from 3 and collectively decided, “Let’s show that guy just how bad we can be on Thursday.” The Liberty lead the league in turnovers per game (17.5). They’re in a bit of a free-fall. Atlanta isn’t much better, but their offensive rating is eight points better (102.3 vs. 94.3). I think the way New York shoots the 3 now is closer to the way they should be shooting the 3, so I’ll take Atlanta at home.