Tuesday WNBA: O'Sullivan rages at Sparks, then picks Wings at Sun, Sky at Liberty, Mystics at Storm
Never has a 1-2 day felt so enraging. Never has the spirit of Father’s Day felt more embraced than rooting for two teams to not score not only to hit the under for that one win but simply out of spite. After a day off spent stewing, I’m gonna soothe my annoyance at the Los Angeles Sparks blowing a fourth-quarter lead to the New York Liberty Sunday by smiling at the fact that within the span of a week, the Dallas Wings’ odds to win the WNBA Championship have dropped from +5500 to +1700. Hopping on the Wings’ bandwagon at the beginning of June before “reputable” sites such as ESPN.com might rank as my second-proudest achievement, behind my unblemished record as an Airbnb guest (check the reviews!)…
(whispers) I still think there’s value there.
Seattle O’Sullivan so far: 35-28
Dallas Wings at Connecticut Sun 7 pm EDT
The Pick: Dallas -1.0 (-110), Over 156 (-110)
Speaking of my Dallas Wings, they’re at Connecticut tonight. Dallas is 9-4 against the spread overall, 6-2 against it on the road, and 8-1 as an underdog. Even though they’re favored by one here, those are impressive records. Back on May 8, the Sun beat the Wings 89-76 in the preseason but just throw that result right out: Satou Sabally, Arike Ogunbowale, Marina Mabrey, Bella Alarie, and others didn’t play for Dallas. I’m surprised they even printed the box score, that’s how irrelevant that game is to this discussion. Now, Jonquel Jones and Briann January didn’t play for Connecticut that day either. But Jones won’t be playing tonight - and that’s the most relevant information in the last seventy-five words I just spewed. Both teams shoot the three-pointer well, but Dallas shoots it more often. The two teams are quite even in a whole lot of statistical categories. The key will be pace. Dallas likes to play faster, while Connecticut’s pace/40 is the slowest in the league (76.04). I think the Wings speed the game up enough to hit the over.
Chicago Sky at New York Liberty, 7 pm EDT
The Pick: Chicago ML (-250), Chicago -6.0 (-110)
Whilst on the subject of bandwagons…Chicago is now finally playing the way I expected them to a few weeks ago. I’d like to think it’s because they’ve finally accepted my wisdom and quit self-sabotaging themselves. I’m willing to accept it might have more to do with Candace Parker’s return to health and Courtney Vandersloot’s (named WNBA’s Co-Player of the Week yesterday) entertaining court vision and passing, which, when you’ve gambled against the Sky, is not entertaining so much as infuriating. New York returns home but if I may be allowed to re-emphasize, blew a lead to Los Angeles on Sunday; they really should have lost that game. (Feel free to rewatch the last five minutes of that game if you wanna understand some more of my infuriation, but bear in mind, with the several interminable official replays, it will kill most of an afternoon.) The Sky are third in defensive rating (95.2) to the Liberty’s tenth (102.6). Chicago turns the other team over 17.4 times per game, are 4-2 on the road, and they have won five in a row (practically off of me personally). So I’m climbing back on the Sky’s bandwagon for tonight. I’m ready to forgive, Chicago. But I have not forgotten. I’ll put enough on the money line to consider the cover gravy.
Washington Mystics at Seattle Storm, 10 pm EDT
The Pick: Seattle ML (-1000)
Seattle’s back home after a two-week road trip where they went 5-0. In fact, the only loss they’ve incurred since May 18 was on a last-second heave against Dallas. Tonight’s game against Washington is the final tune-up before the heavyweight matchup of the WNBA’s first half against the Las Vegas Aces on Sunday. I think it’s far enough before that game that the Storm won’t be looking ahead. Besides, their offense is simply much more effective and dangerous than Washington’s. But I’m only taking the money line here; Seattle is only a straight .500 against the spread this season (7-7), including 1-4 at home. So even though they may not be looking ahead, they may be conserving energy for that big matchup against the Aces this weekend.