Thursday WNBA: O'Sullivan picks Storm at Fever, Dream at Mystics, Sun at Sky, Lynx at Wings, Liberty at Aces
Last night there was only one game. Incidentally, in that game Erica Wheeler, the Spark I cited yesterday morning, scored 18 points on 8-17 shooting, had 10 assists, helped hold Mercury guard Skylar Diggins-Smith to 4-13 from the field, and hit a shot with 8.9 seconds left to salt away the game for Los Angeles.
All of which means I’m a genius, naturally.
So tonight, let’s build on that genius together with the five games on the slate. Well, it’s either a good chance for us to make some cash or for me to find some humility.
Seattle O’Sullivan so far: 28-19
We’re gonna soften some of the high costs of Seattle and Las Vegas by parlaying them with Dallas and Washington, as always with the full awareness that parlays are stupid…
ML Parlay: Seattle (-1700), Las Vegas (-1450), Total Price -769
ML Parlay: Seattle (-1700), Dallas (-190), Las Vegas (-1450), Total Price -137
ML Parlay: Seattle (-1700), Washington (+100), Dallas (-190), Las Vegas (-1450), Total Price +246
Seattle Storm at Indiana Fever, 7 pm EDT
The Pick: Seattle ML (-1700)
Even though Indiana did have a chance to cover on Tuesday, Seattle was never threatened in any way, shape, or form. With the exception of the Mitchells, Kelsey and Tiffany, the Fever really have no one who can score reliably. In fact, they struggle to score for stretches at a time. On the other hand, the Storm have four members of their starting five: Breanna Stewart, Jewel Loyd, Sue Bird, and increasingly Katie Lou Samuelson, who are not only trustworthy as scorers themselves but work as a team to efficiently put the ball in the basket. I’ll put a respectable wager on the money line so as not to risk irresponsibly, and take the small win.
Atlanta Dream at Washington Mystics, 7 pm EDT
The Pick: Washington +1.5 (-110)
Well, this is an interesting one: Washington star Tina Charles, the WNBA’s current leading scorer, will be out for tonight’s game with Atlanta. Injury? No. Load management? No. Personal reasons? Well, in a manner of speaking: Charles is missing tonight’s game to attend the premiere of her film GAME CHANGERS at the Tribeca Film Festival in New York. You know, just like Bill Russell used to do all the time with the Boston Celtics back in the day. (eye roll) Despite my curmudgeonly-ness, I’m still picking the Mystics. They’re at home, where they’re 4-1 in their last five against the spread. They’re also 6-1-1 against the spread against Atlanta. The Dream give up the second-most points per game in the WNBA (86.5), the second-highest FG% (45.6), and the second-highest 3-point % (40.2). I think Washington picks up the half-game they’re behind Atlanta in the standings tonight, while Charles hob-nobs with Robert DeNiro and Bobby Cannavale in a meat-packing plant somewhere near the Brooklyn Bridge.
Connecticut Sun at Chicago Sky, 8 pm EDT
The Pick: Connecticut +4.5 (-110)
The Sun are without Jonquel Jones, this is true. The Sky have Candace Parker back and rounding into form, this is true. Chicago is at home, sure, true. As Aaron Altman (Albert Brooks) yelled in BROADCAST NEWS, “Yes! Yes! I grant you everything!” But. Even after getting pasted by the Seattle Storm 89-66 on Sunday, the Sun still give up the fewest points per game in the league (78.5). Their offensive rating is third, while Chicago’s is 10th. I think Chicago still plays a little too laissez-faire (that’s French for lackadaisical to the point of making me livid), and Connecticut still holds the top spot in the Eastern Conference. They may not win tonight, but they’ll fight.
Minnesota Lynx at Dallas Wings, 8 pm EDT
The Pick: Dallas ML (-180), Dallas -3.5 (-118)
You know how I feel about Dallas. So you won’t be surprised to read that this money line offends me, almost to the point where I’ll fire off an email to…well, somebody. I’ve been saying for over a week now that the Wings are in the top tier of the league (in my power rankings which I’ll email to…well, somebody, sometime, I think they’re third). Minnesota just lost at home by 16 (and it wasn’t that close) to a Chicago Sky team that’s compelling me to quote BROADCAST NEWS. Suffice to say, the Lynx are not anywhere near the top of my rankings. Aside from Napheesa Collier, who is tearing it up, no one on the Lynx scares me, while the Wings’ Arike Ogunbowale, Marina Mabrey, and Satou Sabally are all all-stars, in my opinion. Good teams with championship hopes take care of business at home; I think Dallas fits that description.
New York Liberty at Las Vegas Aces, 10 pm EDT
The Pick: Las Vegas ML (-1450)
Enh, I’ll just put down a bet-unit or two and take the small win. New York guard Sabrina Ionescu is still nursing a sore ankle, but the Liberty did fight on Tuesday before collapsing in the second half. They shoot three-pointers well enough to scare me off the spread, and I can see Las Vegas looking past them a bit given the second-half blowout earlier in the week. Aces guard Kelsey Plum had a huge game on Tuesday, with 32 points off the bench, and I suspect she’ll come back to earth a bit. But A’ja Wilson can get what she wants pretty much anytime she wants, and the Liberty have no answer for her. I’ll take a small profit with the game and hope it contributes to larger ones with the parlays (said every degenerate ever. “Yes. Yes! I grant you everything!”)