Bet the Tuesday WNBA: O'Sullivan picks Minnesota Lynx at Washington Mystics, Dallas Wings at Phoenix Mercury
I mean, at what point is it safe to assume this is personal, now? First Chicago. Then second, Chicago. Third, well, Chicago. But on Sunday it was Seattle’s turn to ruin my day, with Storm guard Jordin Canada (merely a -16 +/- rating for the game - minus 16 (*!*) *sigh*) putting a half-hearted hand in the face of Dallas Wing leading scorer Arike Ogunbowale at the 3-point line which was most definitely not enough to keep Ogunbowale’s shot from going in, giving the Wings a 68-67 victory, and furthering my gambling torment. Seattle? Really? Now, I wasn’t named after the WNBA team; my parents had an admiration for the Duwamish chief. But still. How could that be anything but deliberately vindictive? One can only imagine head coach Noelle Quinn advising her team in the huddle before that final possession, “Remember, Seattle O’Sullivan has us heavy on the money line…so *wink wink*…” That is the only explanation, isn't it? That, and the unassailable fact that life is pain, of course.
Seattle O’Sullivan so far: 13-10
Minnesota Lynx at Washington Mystics, 7:00 pm EDT
The Pick: Washington ML (+110), Washington +2.5 (-118), U 166.5 (-110)
Minnesota has won three in a row, while Washington has lost two straight. Those Lynx wins were all at home, however, two to the mediocre Atlanta Dream, while the Mystic’s last loss was a hard-fought one to the very, very good Las Vegas Aces. In fact, Washington scored 13 straight in the fourth to tie Las Vegas at 90 before finally falling to one of the WNBA’s best squads. I think the Mystics are on the come-up. Washington’s point differential is -1.5 while Minnesota’s is -1.2, hardly a huge difference. Mystics center Tina Charles is the WNBA’s leading scorer and will be the best player on the floor tonight, so I’ll take Washington to cover and win straight up. The two teams combine to score 161.1 points and combine to give up 163.8, so the under looks good here too.
Dallas Wings at Phoenix Mercury, 10:00 pm EDT
The Pick: Dallas +1.5 (-106)
What am I missing here? Dallas is third in the league in scoring (87.6 ppg) while Phoenix is ninth (80.3), the Wings out-rebound the Mercury by almost three per game (39.3 vs. 36.6), and they make two more 3-pointers per game (8.8 to 6.8). Dallas does give up six more points per game (86.3 vs. only 80.3), but the Wings’ average does include two 100-spots surrendered to the Seattle Storm, who despite my shattered heart and propensity to hold grudges I must concede is still one of the WNBA’s best teams. Oh, those two games were also overtime contests, so… Dallas’s net rating is 0.7; Phoenix’s is 0.2. The Mercury did beat the Wings in Dallas on May 29, but only by four points and after shooting 50.0% to the Wings’ 37.2%. Dallas has been toughened up by playing Seattle this past weekend, and their confidence will be up due to losing a buzzer-beater in overtime and then winning on a buzzer-beater. Wings’ guards Arike Ogunbowale (22.1 ppg) and Marina Mabrey (19.4 ppg) are gaining confidence with every possession. They’re not going to fear going to Phoenix, who’s still without star Diana Taurasi. Take tonight's other team I believe is on the come-up with the points - well, the point-and-a-half.
