2024 Men's Wimbledon Betting Preview: Live Odds, Best Bets, and Predictions for Each Quarter

Wimbledon is here and our 2024 preview has all you need to get ready for the action. We'll cover the live odds and give out some best bets and predictions. Good luck!
Grigor Dimitrov may be worth a look to win Q1 at Wimbledon!
Grigor Dimitrov may be worth a look to win Q1 at Wimbledon!

Tennis’ third Grand Slam has arrived with the grass season just about wrapping up here at Wimbledon. We’ll be taking a look at the Men’s Draw on a quarter by quarter basis and try to extract some value in the outright/quarter markets. 

Before jumping into the quarters, a few macro thoughts here on the outright market and tournament favorites. The outright market is unsurprisingly top heavy with Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz, and Novak Djokovic leading the pack. Djokovic finds himself as the three seed in this tournament, avoiding both top seed Sinner and reigning champion Carlos Alcaraz in his side of the draw.

Djokovic once again finds himself at the center of media attention leading up to Wimbledon as he looks to challenge for his eighth title in London. We have some huge question marks about the 37 year old Djokovic, after tearing his meniscus during the French Open and somehow being ready to play after undergoing surgery just about three weeks ago.

Djokovic has not played well so far in 2024, with age potentially catching up to him at this stage of his career. He should be aided by short points and a familiar surface at Wimbledon, but this could be the largest test of his physical limitations of his career. More on Djokovic’s chances below…

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Quarter 1: 

The first quarter is led by Jannik Sinner in what has turned out to be a packed quarter on what has been the World No. 1’s worst surface in his young career. Sinner is a deserving tournament favorite, but a price of +175 is just too low given the path laid out in this draw. Sinner gets an early challenge in Round 2 where he’ll run into his countryman, Matteo Berrettini.

Berrettini has severely struggled to stay healthy in the past two years, but has a penchant for grass courts behind his huge first serve and slice. Berrettini had a finals appearance in Stuttgart two weeks before Wimbledon and looks to be in decent form. It’s an interesting early round challenge for Sinner who will not likely blow by the Berrettini serve and could be forced into a longer match, much earlier in the tournament than expected.

In his eighth, Sinner also finds Tallon Griekspoor, another player with a strong game for grass but struggles with durability and consistency. Griekspoor took a set off Sinner in their opening round matchup at Halle, before Sinner’s eventual title. These are both matches I expect Sinner to win, but again could add to his total court time and provide a bigger challenge before even getting through the fourth round. 

Looking at the other eighth of the quarter we find Daniil Medvedev and Grigor Dimitrov leading the way. Despite some relative success in his career, Medvedev isn’t exactly a prototype on grass. He has a great first serve, but his deep return position and baselining playing style doesn’t really translate to slick, low bouncing courts like those that will be featured at Wimbledon.

He’ll be competitive in his quarter, but I don’t find any value in his prices at 40/1 outright and about +650 for the quarter. The player that I am interested in here is Grigor Dimitrov, who has the easiest section of the quarter than the other seeded players. He could run into Adiran Mannarino in the third quarter who is always dangerous on the surface, but looks to be far off his game in 2024. BetMGM is putting up 11/1 for Dimitrov to win the quarter (same price as Berrettini) which just doesn’t make sense to me.

He’ll likely need to beat Medvedev and Sinner in a row to cash this bet but he shouldn’t have difficulty getting there. I don’t think a ML rollover gets you far passed 11/1 and perhaps we can take advantage of chaos in the quarter. I’ll take a stab at this one with a ton of upside.

Bet: Grigor Dimitrov to win Q1 (+1100) 0.5u

Prediction: Sinner over Dimitrov

Quarter 2: 

Reigning champion Carlos Alcaraz gets a great draw here in the third quarter, with his next highest seed being Casper Ruud who usually spends the better part of grass season golfing and partying in Europe. Despite winning the French Open, Carlos Alcaraz has left a little to be desired in 2024, at least up to his standard. Zverev beat himself in the French Open final and Alcaraz just seems to be missing the edge that he had at this point in 2023.

Alcaraz’s early season elbow injury could be the culprit but it’s been difficult to pinpoint what caused the slight drop in level from the Spaniard. That being said, Alcaraz will need to get through Frances Tiafoe and an out of form Ugo Humbert to reach the quarterfinal here, giving him a deserving price of -200 in the quarter.

I see potential challenge from Tommy Paul at the bottom half of the quarter as the American is playing some of his best tennis and has the game to be effective on grass. That being said, +550 is a bit too short for me for Tommy to win the quarter, I’d rather take this match by match as he'll face some tricky opponents in Max Purcell and Alex Bublik.

Casper Ruud’s propensity to pack it in and prepare for the US Open during grass season looks to be priced into the markets already which is why we’re not getting inflated times on the lower seeded players. From a pricing perspective I’m more interested in Alexander Bublik (20/1) than anyone else in the quarter but I’m looking at Tommy Paul as a potential upset quarter-finalist.

That being said, it seems like the whole market is keen to Paul’s ability and draw, leaving us with equitable pricing. Keep an eye out for Alcaraz’s level in this quarter.

Prediction: Alcaraz over Paul

Quarter 3:

Quarter 3 could be the most wide open in the draw, avoiding the “big 3”. Alexander Zverev leads this quarter in the midst of one of the best seasons of his career. Zverev hasn’t seen much success at Wimbledon, never making it past the fourth round in London. Zverev also hasn’t won a tournament on grass in his entire career.

2024 could be his best opportunity to do damage at Wimbledon given his draw and position within the quarter. He’ll run into Jack Draper in the fourth round, who has become a popular pick within this quarter and for the tournament after his title run at Stuttgart. Draper is more than capable on the surface but has struggled with his fitness in years passed.

He hasn’t made a deep run in best of five tennis and I’d rather see it before I believe it with prices as short as +300 to win the quarter. He’d probably be in the 2/1 range against Zverev and still have to face Taylor Fritz then Rublev/Korda to cash that 3/1 bet. Fritz can easily serve his way through his first few matchups, but lacks the return ability to make a deep run at this tournament in my opinion.

Sebastian Korda is an interesting look in this quarter, a player who clearly has the game but has lacked the mental strength to make a run at a Grand Slam. Korda has all-court ability and a strong first serve to pair with decent touch at the net. Korda’s biggest liability in his career has been his inability to close out important points/matches and his tendency to melt down in big spots.

He’s likely undervalued in the outright markets at (80/1) given his ability, but he’s deserving of these prices given his struggles. He has picked up some form during the grass season reaching the final at Rosmalen and semi-final at Queen’s Club.

I’m interested to see if Korda can get through Stefanos Tsitsipas, who’s practically a non-factor on the surface. Tsitspas has a very strong first serve but his one-handed backhand is such a liability on the surface and isn’t a threat to get out of this quarter. 

I’m interested to see how Andrey Rublev looks in the midst of a nightmare season for the Russian filled with meltdowns, broken rackets, and on-court yelling matches with himself. He should have a cake-walk to the fourth round with Musetti being the other seeded player in his section.

Musetti made an improbable run to the final at Queen’s club but I’m not ready to crown the Italian as a grass courter just yet. I’ll be monitoring Rublev’s pricing match-by-match to see if he can build up some confidence in the early rounds and make a run in a winnable quarter.

Prediction: Zverev over Korda

Quarter 4:

Finally arriving in the fourth quarter, the only question we have is can Novak Djokovic really win this tournament? We take a lot of wait and see approaches in the early rounds of grand slams but Djokovic’s level might be the toughest to call. His seemingly endless motor has been challenged in 2024 so his tendency to take some sets off in the early rounds could come back to bite him over the next two weeks.

Where Djokovic has lucked out this year is in the draw. Hubert Hurkacz is a formidable opponent on the grass, but Novak wouldn’t even see him until the quarter final. His side of the bracket is littered with clay courters and he likely won’t be challenged until a potential Round four matchup with Karen Khachanov, should he get past Holger Rune. 

Hubert Hurkacz stands the most to gain from the question marks around Djokovic, as Hurkacz’s serve is untouchable at times and can hide his inability to generate break points. Hurkacz is perfectly fine winning tie breaks in each of his matches and generally has the temperament in big spots given how often he’s playing with tiny margins for error in his victories.

That being said, I don’t think +300 is a big enough price to back Hurkacz here with Alex De Minaur lurking in his section of the quarter as well. I still don’t think ADM has the power to stick with the top talent on tour, but if a couple points go his way in a tiebreak, he has the motor to push Hurkacz to five sets.

15/1 for Hurkacz is simply too low even if Djokovic ends up pulling out with injury in a path that will take him through Alexander Zverev and then Sinner/Alcaraz in a final. Yes, this price will disappear but should something go wrong with Djokovic, but at that point the market will be over-valuing Hurkacz more than they already are.


Djokovic over Hurkacz

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