Tennis: At Volvo Car Open, Abrams picks Saturday semis -- Puig vs. Keys, Wozniacki vs. Martic

Volvo Car Open
Women’s Semifinals

Monica Puig over Madison Keys
In disposing of Australian Open semi-finalist American Danielle Collins, Monica Puig looked to be playing every bit as well as she did when she took the Gold Medal at the 2016 Olympic Games. She played almost flawless, attacking tennis, and showed steely resolve any time Collins tried to mount a run. Collins incessantly complained about line calls and had the umpire, who is charged with keeping control of the match, leave his chair to check marks made by the balls in the har-tru surface time and again when her close shots were called out. But Puig didn’t let the two-time NCAA champion’s gamesmanship slow her down, and rose to the occasion every time Collins got the umpire involved. Puig served well, hit hard and deep, and although she didn’t have as many winners as Collins, she made very few errors particularly in the first set, but also throughout the match. She looks ready for a monumental career comeback after two years of mediocre results.

Madison Keys notched her first career win over compatriot Sloane Stephens by dictating play and hitting winners. Both Keys and Stephens played noticeably better than they had previously in the week, and although there were probably myriads of reasons why, the biggest one that I found noticeable was that they both hit bigger than they had previously. Keys, in particular, found her range more than Stephens, and Keys won this match . . . Stephens did not lose it. With that said, the first set tiebreaker was very strange indeed. Keys ran off the first four points and then Stephens answered with six points of her own. Holding two set points, Stephens temporarily folded while Keys won another four points in succession to take the set. Streaks like that are fairly uncommon, especially in tiebreakers where the serve changes hands every two points. But the har-tru courts mute big hitters’ boomers, and rather than a see-saw, as most tiebreakers are, this one was more like a run seen in basketball. After dropping the first set, Stephens capitalized on an abundance of unforced errors from Maddy, which has become something of a trademark recently for Keys. But, while winning the second set, Stephens did not pick up the pace of her shots, seemingly content on simply allowing her opponent to miss. This ultimately came back to haunt Stephens in the third set when Keys cut down on her unforced errors and dictated play, while Stephens simply bunted the ball back more often than not.

I think Puig is going to upset Keys on Saturday because Keys tends to be so inconsistent that she often follows up a terrific shot with two unforced errors, and that ratio won’t work. Keys will probably dictate play, as she is wont to do, but she will also miss more often than her Puerto Rican opponent. If Puig serves as well as she did against Collins, and if Keys continues to make more errors than winners, Puig will move on.

Caroline Wozniacki over Petra Martic
Estonian Petra Martic sure played well in knocking out Switzerland’s 22-year-old Belinda Bencic 6-3, 6-4 in the first of Friday’s quarterfinals. Martic has had a terrific week with four straight “good” wins and looked totally in charge in each match. She did experience a slight speed bump in the second set of her first-round match against 17-year-old American Amanda Anisimova, but she recovered and dominated every match after that. Martic showed a nice clay-court game and nifty strategy upheld by a strong first serve and consistent, penetrating ground strokes in taking out Mandy Minella, Jessie Pegula, and Bencic, all experienced Touring pros. As a losing semi-finalist Martic will take home over $37,000 and an important 185 ranking points that should keep her as one of the 32 seeds for the upcoming French Open that is only six weeks away. But lose she will, as her 0-5 record against Wozniacki tells the only story you need to know about this match.

Wozniacki hasn’t played particularly well this week, but she has emerged as the best player in the draw. She survived a fourth-round match against Mihaela Buzarnescu, the 12th seed who had only one win this year going into the Charleston tournament. However, in the third round and in the quarters Wozniacki was able to dominate her foes while hitting mediocre groundstrokes that landed only three to four feet behind the service line. These short shots would be instant suicide on the men’s Tour, but, because neither Laura Sigemund nor Maria Sakkari were able to either knock those patsies off for winners or chip a simple down-the-line approach shot and attack the net, Woznicacki seemed emboldened. To her credit, Wonzniacki hit her backhand down the line so hard and deep that those two-handers went for winner after winner, as none of her opponents were able to catch up with them. The Dane also served well, and even on the slow har-tru courts her serve set her up for easy holds. There were times where Woz got into long games and had to fight to endure, but in the end, the scores seemed lopsided in her favor and all her work was proven worthwhile and her shallow groundies seemed like an unimportant afterthought. All in all, this tournament is Wozniacki’s to lose, and as I commented before her Round of 16 match, she looks like a champion.