Tennis: Abrams picks 2nd round women’s play at Indian Wells

Indian Wells
Women’s Singles Round 2

Simona Halep over Barbara Strycova
Simona Halep has a great chance of winning this tournament. The only player in her half of the draw who I believe could give her a run for her money is 4th seeded Sloane Stephens, and she is so erratic that half the time she’s not even a tough opponent. Serena Williams and Vika Azarenka, who play each other today, are both in the upper half of the draw floating like “free men” among serfs. They are so dangerous because, since they’re both coming back from giving birth, their rankings aren’t sufficiently high to place them in an opportune seeded position. Barbara Strycova, whom Halep holds a 4-1 lifetime advantage over, actually has more career match wins than Halep, but that’s just because she’s been playing on the Tour longer. Her serve is not a tremendous weapon, so if the Czech is going to win she’s going to have to beat the 2nd seed at her own game, and that’s very unlikely. Halep isn’t ranked No. 2 in the world just because she has a great game. She’s also, perhaps, the single toughest competitor on the women’s Tour.

Ash Barty over Tatjana Maria
Barty is seeded 12th here, and she should have little trouble upholding her seed and getting to the round of 16, at least. At age 22 she already has almost 200 career match wins, and that’s impressive. Although this will be the first time these two will be playing each other on hard courts, they’ve played three previous times with Barty taking all three matches. Maria is a 31-year-old Tour veteran from Germany, and has carved out a nice career playing pro tennis. But after playing professionally for over 12 years she is only ranked 69th, and has had a pretty mediocre record at the Grand Slams (having gotten past the second round once in the 27 times she made the main draws), which this tournament is a surrogate for. I think Barty will roll.

Sloane Stephens over Stefanie Voegele
You never know which Sloane Stephens you’re going to see. It might be the Sloane Stephens who won the U.S. Open in 2017 or who got to the finals of the French Open last year. But you are just as likely to see the Sloane Stephens who lost in the first round of two of the last five Grand Slam tournaments that she played in. Interestingly, Voegele, the 28-year-old from Switzerland, has won four out of the five matches these two have played and that gives her a big boost in confidence going into this match. Additionally, the wind will be blowing in the desert, which will likely negatively affect Stephens more than Voegele. Moreover, Stephens has not impressed lately, having lost last week in the second round in Acapulco as the top seed. Even so, I’m going with the 4th seeded American for no other reason than I think she’s due. I could be totally wrong.

Amanda Anisimova over Elise Mertens
This will be a very interesting match. Elise Mertens is the 16th seed here, and at age 23 has already won 6 WTA doubles titles and 5 WTA singles titles—one of which has come this year. But Anisimova, the 17-year-old who runs like a deer and hits like a man, looked great in her first round win over Aleksandra Krunic. I think the New Jersey native will be one of the two or three next superstars in the women’s game, but she IS only 17, meaning that she could suffer a bad loss now that she won’t in three or four years. I just don’t think it will come here, and if it does, it won’t be bad, as Mertens is a polished professional ranked No. 16 in the world.

Serena Williams over Vika Azarenka
I’m really looking forward to this match between perhaps the greatest female player who has ever played, and a former multiple Grand Slam champion. It’s telling that they will clash in only the second round here. They are both coming back from having given birth, and Vika also had to endure a year-plus nasty custody battle over her son Leo, which was emotionally draining. So Serena is coming in to this tournament closer to her best, although she is admittedly well past her prime, and has many competitors that can beat her that she didn’t have ten years ago. But so does Azarenka, as her best years were in 2012 and 2013. In fact, although Vika made nice, quick work of compatriot Vera Lapko in the first round, she is farther from her best then Serena is. Here’s the “tell” of this match: Serena holds a 17-4 career record against the 6’0” Belarusian. That record should get even more lopsided today.

Garbine Muguruza over Lauren Davis
I have to admit that Lauren Davis is one of my favorite players on the Women’s Tour. Unfortunately, that is not going to get her this win. Davis is so much fun to watch because she battles like Pete Rose used to in the batter’s box. She takes nothing for granted and gives nothing away. But she’s running into a player who is just better in Muguruza, the 6’0” 20th seed here. The biggest hurdle Davis has to overcome, frankly, is her height, at only 5’2”. It puts her at a severe disadvantage particularly against the game’s taller players as they can cover the court in fewer steps, can generate more power on their serves and groundies, and can intimidate simply because of their size: think of how smaller opponents have felt going against Serena Williams, Mike Tyson, or Randy Johnson. Davis fights through it, and that’s what makes here so appealing to watch, but that won’t work here, as Muguruza is as tough as they come, having already won two Grand Slam tournaments and getting to the finals of a third.

Petra Kvitova over Venus Williams
Venus Williams is yesterday’s news. At 38-years-old, her best tennis is in the rearview mirror, but she loves to play, so she still goes out there and competes. This will be a tough matchup for the American, as she has drawn the third seed in the very tough Petra Kvitova in this second round match. These two have played seven times since 2008 with Kvitova taking five of those matches, and Kvitova, at 6’0” is one of the only players who gives up very little in terms of height to the 6’1” Venus. Kvitova is in her prime, and Venus isn’t. That sums it up here.

Angelique Kerber over Yulia Putintseva
Kerber, the 8th seeded German, has a very solid game, and is a real professional. She’s a relatively tall (5’8”) lefty, and is a bit crafty, as lefties tend to be. Her serve is not as much of a weapon as it could be, but she works her opponent from corner to corner with solid, penetrating groundstrokes. She holds a career 1-0 record over Putintseva, the 24-year-old Russian, in which the German won very easily. But Putintseva probably won’t go down easily here, because the windy conditions in Indian Wells could be a real equalizer. Interestingly, each has managed to stuff quite a bit of money in their bank accounts this year alone, with Putintseva winning over $134,000 and Kerber taking home over $290,000 since January 1. But when the dust settles, and the checks are cashed, Kerber will move on and Putintseva will have to settle for the $26,430 that second round losers receive.

Kirsten Flipkens over Danielle Collins
Last night Flipkens, the exciting Belgian, took out Canadian Genie Bouchard 7-5 in the third. Bouchard was fighting a cold, and looked like she was better off in bed, but she played reasonably well considering her condition. Yet, ultimately, Flipkens cut down on her errors late in the third to take this very exciting match. Flipkens sort of reminds me of Fabio Fognini (without the psychotic behavior), in that she’s fast, quick, exciting, can hit almost any shot spectacularly, but can follow a wonderful shot by dumping the next ball in the net. Still, if she makes more than she misses, she’s very dangerous. And in my opinion, Collins, the American from UVA, is a bit of a pretender. Her fortuitous run to this year’s Australian Open semifinals was a great result, but a bit of a fluke. Because of it, she finds herself seeded at tournaments now, but it has just set her up for disappointment so far. Last week Azarenka destroyed her in the first round in Acapulco, 6-1, 6-2, where Collins was the second seed. And although Collins will fight until the bitter end, I think she’ll go down here. Either way, this should be a really fun match to watch, and should be a war.

Ajla Tomljanovic over Aryna Sabalenka
Aryna Sabalenka is the 9th seed here, and has been consistently a favorite of the media since she finished the 2018 campaign strong. But I am not impressed. She hits the ball hard off of both sides, but she seems to have no particular strategy out there other than hitting hard. She is prone to errors because she doesn’t control her ball with much spin, and because she seems to prefer to haul off on her shots rather than play more cerebral choices. This hurts her. Tomljanovic is solid, if not spectacular. She had a really nice straight set win over the tough Frenchwoman Alize Cornet in the first round here, and is an appealing player to watch. If the Croatian can keep just one more ball in the court each point against Sabalenka, I expect her to bank the upset. If Sabalenka can control her “wild side” and play with more grace than power, then the Belarussian will prevail. But I expect the wind to play a part in this match, and I think it will affect Sabalenka more than Tomljanovic. And anything that affects Sabalenka is a bad thing for her.