Feinting the Line Saturday Soccer Picks: Wolfsburg vs Dortmund, Bayer vs Frankfurt, Sheffield vs Brighton
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Wolfsburg/Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | 9:30 am ET
THE PLAY: Wolfsburg/Borussia Dortmund o4 @ +335 | .375u
THE PLAY: Wolfsburg PK @ +141 | .5u
THE PLAY: Wolfsburg ML @ +221 | .5u
Borussia Dortmund attempts a late, desperate gasp of its coup for a Champions League spot when Edin Terzic and company invades the Volkswagen Arena for Sunday’s six-point Bundesliga blockbuster bout.
While our side selections remain available within $.05 of each selection price (providing a solid opportunity for late players), our goals take has accrued massive closing line value of $.85 (or .85u). The best available price has shortened to +250 at Bovada with value having subsided.
Although a ML price of +221 implies a probability of 31.2% for our desired outcome, we estimate Oliver Glasner’s Wolves collects three points in similarly poised matches at a rate between 34.75% - 35.8%. Hence, we project a value edge of 3.55% - 4.6%.
From a personnel perspective, Kevin Mbabu returns from a red card suspension providing a healthy boost to the right side of the pitch for Wolfsburg. The young French regular Maxence Lacroix is likely to step into the XI, as well, following a thigh niggle that sidelined him in the win at the midweek.
Bayer Leverkusen v. Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga | 12:30 pm ET
THE PLAY: Eintracht Frankfurt PK @ +149 | .5u
THE PLAY: Eintracht Frankfurt -1 @ +450 | .5u
The Eagles travels to the BayArena for a matchup of teams whose production can best be described as volatile.
Adolf Hutter’s side has higher rates of concession and chance creation but was certainly undervalued. Our projections indicate Eintracht Frankfurt wins ilk-natured matches at a 33.35% - 34.15% clip. A ML price of +235 (available when we selected) suggests only a 29.9% probability for our desired outcome, however. Accordingly, we approximate a value edge between 3.45% - 4.25%.
The best available Eintracht Frankfurt PK price and alternate line have shortened to +127 and +409, respectively, at MarathonBet and 888sport. Consequently, we claim closing line value of $.22 (or .22u) and $.41 (or .41u) on the selections, respectively for combined closing line value of $.63 (or .63u).
Our preferred XI includes the services of Andre Silva and Filip Kostic.
Sheffield United v. Brighton | Premier League | 3:00 pm ET
THE PLAY: Brighton -1 @ +252 | .35u
THE PLAY: Brighton win to nil @ +232 | .35u
Shutout win propositions supporting the away contingent at Bramall Lane have supplied FtL and followers with immense value and profit all season. The closing line value tradition with this breed of selection continues. Let us hope the profit does too. Perhaps the Blades allows us one last fleeting bet opportunity this season.
With best available prices shortening to +140 and +150 (widely available), we garner a massive $1.12 (or 1.12u) and $.82 (or .82u) of closing line value on the plays, respectively.
THE PLAYS
Wolfsburg/Borussia Dortmund o4 @ +335 | .375u
Wolfsburg PK @ +141 | .5u
Wolfsburg ML @ +221 | .5u
Eintracht Frankfurt PK @ +149 | .5u
Eintracht Frankfurt -1 @ +450 | .5u
Brighton -1 @ +252 | .35u
Brighton win to nil @ +232 | .35u
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