Feinting the Line Late Sunday: Cadiz v Celta, Getafe v Real Madrid, Levante v Villarreal, plus FA Cup
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We are back to normal major positive expected and closing line value ways. Not a single selection on the list misses that mark today. We look to the Premier League and FA Cup for a few high-stakes, scarce home market selections while away wins markets continue to yield most of our value opportunities.
Cadiz v. Celta Vigo | La Liga | 12:30 pm ET
THE PLAY: Celta Vigo PK @ -118 | .33u
THE PLAY: Celta Vigo -1 @ +380 | .4u
This La Liga away wins selection accounts for our highest value snag of the weekend. We boast a whopping $.77 (or .77u) of closing line value on the draw no bet play. For pricing reference, the ML price is now available at +108. We claim a massive $1.55 (or 1.55u) of closing line value on the alternate line.
Best available prices have shortened to -195 and +225, respectively, at MarathonBet and Pinnacle.
We not only gather massive value, but also have the privilege of backing an in-form side against a Cadiz squad whose expected goals tally and goal difference statistics suggest a somewhat fortuitous 12th position in the Spanish top division.
Leicester City v. Southampton | FA Cup | 1:30 pm ET
THE PLAY: Leicester City ML @ +110 | .5u
THE PLAY: Leicester City -1 @ +225 | 1u
Our highest stakes spot of the day calls for a Brendan Rodgers semi-finals FA Cup victory.
Caglar Soyuncu slots in at the back to boost our desired probability outcome. The gifted midfield pairing of Wilfred Ndidi and Youri Tielemans produces our best opportunity to overrun and tactically control the contest.
Although Southampton has managed to boost the squad through health and fitness rejuvenation in the past few weeks, prices have still swung in our favor.
We garner $.20 (or .2u) of closing line value on the home win bet as the best available price has shortened to -110 at MarathonBet. The alternate line price has shortened to a best available of +174 at Pinnacle, so we accumulate significant closing line value of $.51 (or .51u) on our full unit spot.
We approximate a 3.75% - 5.15% value edge on the ML play considering we estimate Rodgers’ Foxes wins 51.35% - 52.75% of like-poised matches.
Getafe v. Real Madrid | La Liga | 3:00 pm ET
THE PLAY: Real Madrid ML @ -120 | .7u
Late takers are supplied a golden opportunity as the Real Madrid ML is somehow still available at -125 at MarathonBet. Late closing line value is expected with late public money likely to back the shortly priced Los Blancos.
We back Zidane and company. If the league table, your eyeballs, and club aspirations do not convince you – Champions League and domestic league trophies as opposed to relegation avoidance – then our projections should. We estimate Real Madrid is victorious in 58.1% - 59.45% of similarly poised contests. Accordingly, we approximate a 3.6% - 5.95% value edge when contemplating an implied probability of 54.5% based off a ML price of -120.
Levante v. Villarreal | La Liga | 3:00 pm ET
THE PLAY: Villarreal -1 @ +235 | .6u
Unai Emery’s El Submarino Amarillo is scorching in the Europa League. History dictates this is no surprise, but Villarreal rests 7th in the La Liga table. At just a point out of touch for European competition next year, Emery must also focus his men on domestic sights.
The best available alternate line price has shortened to +200 available at 888sport. Accordingly, we claim $.35 (or .35u) of closing line value on the selection which relies on the more talented contingent.
THE PLAYS
Celta Vigo PK @ -118 | .33u
Celta Vigo -1 @ +380 | .4u
Leicester City ML @ +110 | .5u
Leicester City -1 @ +225 | 1u
Real Madrid ML @ -120 | .7u
Villarreal -1 @ +235 | .6u
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