Feinting the Line Early Sunday: Brest v Lens, Reims v Metz, Alaves v Huesca, Bordeaux v Monaco, more
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We are back to normal major positive expected and closing line value ways. Not a single selection on the list misses that mark today. We look to the Premier League and FA Cup for a few high-stakes, scarce home market selections while away wins markets continue to yield most of our value opportunities.
Arsenal v. Fulham | Premier League | 8:30 am ET
THE PLAY: Arsenal -1 @ +153 | 1u
For audio analysis of this late plus expected value take, visit our tweet in collaboration with @DataDrivenPick and @TheDaily_Slate. Both provide insightful and free selections on their twitter pages.
Brest v. Lens | Ligue One | 9:00 am ET
THE PLAY: Lens ML @ +170 | .25u
THE PLAY: Lens -1 @ +337 | .25u
While this market is volatile, we perceive another late expected value spot for late players here. Lens misses regular starters because of an outbreak of coronavirus in the camp, but Brest will also enter with significant absentees.
The ML price is still available at Pinnacle while the alternate price is widely available for about $.10 (or .1u) cheaper than when we took.
Although a ML price of +170 implies a probability of 37%, we estimate Franck Haise’s side gathers three points from this iteration of the match at a rate between 39.4% - 40.95%. Consequently, we calculate an approximated value edge of 2.4% - 3.95% on the ML selection.
Brest has lost four of its past eight league opportunities with only one victory over the span. The away wins market provides value with Lens having accomplished a +18 comparative goal difference over its competition in the top French division.
Reims v. Metz | Ligue One | 9:00 am ET
THE PLAY: Metz ML @ +245 | .5u
Metz travels to the Stade Francis-Le Ble in Brest with no wins in five attempts in all competitions; however, recency bias may account for our accrued value contemplating the strength of opponent over the dire stretch. Metz faced Monaco twice, Rennes, Lille, and Lens most recently. Four of the five accompany top five positions in the French top-flight while Rennes carry a massively talented squad who underperformed the first half of the season.
Most value has subsided on the bet as the Metz ML has shortened to a best available price of +210 at William Hill. Accordingly, we have garnered significant closing line value of $.35 (or .35u) on the selection.
We estimate the away wins value edge between 4.3% - 4.85%. We arrive at this calculation considering our projections approximate Metz wins similarly situated contests at a 33.3% - 33.85% clip while the ML price of +245 suggests a probability of only 29%.
Deportivo Alaves v. Huesca | La Liga | 10:15 am ET
THE PLAY: Huesca PK @ +135 | .4u
THE PLAY: Huesca ML @ +229 | .35u
The home contingent welcomes Pacheta and company hoping to demonstrate why the oddsmakers have favored them in this essential relegation battle.
Comparative goal difference, expected comparative goal difference, expected goals, and other advanced statistics, however, tend to suggest a much more evenly distributed probability of outcomes.
Although the draw no bet price has shortened to a best current price of +116 and the ML price has shortened to a best current price of +214 (both available at MarathonBet), those prices still furnish value opportunities – albeit, reduced – for late players.
At writing, we have accumulated $.19 (or .19u) of closing line value on the draw no bet selection and $.15 (or .15u) on the ML play.
We estimate Huesca wins ilk-natured games at a 33.45% - 34.65% rate. Integrating an implied probability of 30.4% based on a ML price of +229, we approximate a value edge of 3.05% - 4.25% for the outright away win bet.
Bordeaux v. Monaco | Ligue One | 11:05 am ET
THE PLAY: Monaco ML @ -111 | 1u
This is another collaboration selection with value connoisseur @DataDrivenPick.
We claim substantial closing line value of $.38 (or .38u) as the best available price has shortened to -149 at MarathonBet. Additionally, significant price variation exists across bookmakers on the play.
A ML price of -111 implies a probability of 52.6% for our desired outcome. We, however, project Monaco collects all three point from similarly situated matches at a 58.3% - 60.2% clip. Consequently, we estimate a value edge of 5.7% - 7.6%.
We look to Nico Kovac to deploy in-form French wonder-talent Aurelien Tchoumaeni. He is certainly one to watch for the future. A preferred XI also involves the services of Wissam Ben Yedder, Kevin Volland, Youssouf Fofana, and Aleksandr Golovin.
THE PLAYS
Arsenal -1 @ +153 | 1u
Lens ML @ +170 | .25u
Lens -1 @ +337 | .25u
Metz ML @ +245 | .5u
Huesca PK @ +135 | .4u
Huesca ML @ +229 | .35u
Monaco ML @ -111 | 1u
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