Feinting the Line Thursday Europa League Picks: Slavia Prague vs Arsenal, Roma vs Ajax
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Our Thursday value selections look to away Europa League Quarter-final wins.
Slavia Prague v. Arsenal | Agg. (1-1) | Europa League | 3:00 pm ET
THE PLAY: Arsenal ML @ -103 | .35u
THE PLAY: Arsenal -1 @ +199 | .35u
Mikel Arteta’s Gunners visits the Sinobo Stadium in Praha, Czechia with doubtful availability of Martin Odegaard and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang on Thursday. Despite the likely absences we have accrued significant closing line value with the line movement evidencing our intuition that Arsenal’s potential misses are in an area of the pitch where the squad can offer ample replacements.
The cheapest Arsenal ML price is now available at MarathonBet for -122. Consequently, we claim $.19 (or .19u) of closing line value on the Gunners win selection. The Arsenal alternate line bet price has shortened substantially to +156. Accordingly, we have gained $.43 (or .43u) of closing line value on the alternate line selection. With late public money likely supporting Arsenal, we may accrue further closing line value. Significant price variance exists across the selections markets as well.
We estimate Arsenal wins contests of similar stature at a significantly higher than coin flip rate and endorse the play down to -122. The ML provides a higher value proposition than the alternate line for late takers.
Roma v. Ajax | Agg. (2-1) | Europa League | 3:00 pm ET
THE PLAY: Ajax PK @ +104 | .4u
THE PLAY: Ajax -1 @ +359 | .6u
Go check out our audio analysis for reasoning on the selections and slight favoring of the alternate line bet.
We have accumulated $.29 (or .29u) of closing line value on the draw no bet selection with the best available price shortening to -125 at MarathonBet. The alternate line play has garnered a substantial $.97 (or .97u) of closing line value with the best price available residing at Pinnacle at +262. We claim a combined closing line value of $1.26 (or 1.26u) on these selections.
Our projections indicate Ajax is victorious in like-natured matches between 41.15% - 43.15% of the time. Considering an implied probability of 36.4% - based on a ML price of +175 which was available when we made our selections - we estimate a value edge of 4.75% - 6.75% between the selections.
THE PLAYS
Arsenal ML @ -103 | .35u
Arsenal -1 @ +199 | .35u
Ajax PK @ +104 | .4u
Ajax -1 @ +359 | .6u
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