Saturday Soccer picks from Feinting the Line: Granada vs Villarreal, Wolfsburg vs Koln, and Arsenal vs Liverpool
If you plan on tailing, please do so with responsibility and caution. Before you tail, please read our introduction post on Bettors Insider describing who we are, our history, and our betting style. Additionally, check out @FeintingtheLine on Twitter. Best of luck with all your plays.
Granada v. Villarreal | La Liga | 8:00 am ET
THE PLAY: Granada/Villarreal o2.5 @ +121 | .35u
Hell of a viewing split for our selections off the back of international break. We do not choose the spots, the numbers do.
While we perceive a near coin-flip probability of this game producing three goals, oddsmakers have granted us plus money opportunity. Pinnacle provided our enticing price which we posted Friday morning; however, the play still provides value for later players at current prices of +114 available at MarathonBet, Betfair, and 888sport. We endorse the play down to a minimum price of +105. Hop on board quickly though, as we expect additional closing line value before kickoff based on current money trends.
Tactically, multiple reports suggest Villarreal will deploy first-choice midfield and back four selection with Manchester United target Pau Torres returning to bolster the side’s defensive outlook (when can I expect my Amargao Futebol correspondent check, Sean Miller?). However, with an important Europa League match midweek against Dinamo Zagreb, we are not convinced Europa magician, Unai Emery, risks his most influential player at the back directly off injury or certain other first choice selections.
Regardless of Emery’s XI, the play provides value with the Granada contingent receiving necessary rest and rejuvenation over the international break, boosting our desired outcome probability chances.
If our argument does not entice you, goals tipster extraordinaire Robert Hawley’s consulting and approval on the play might convince you! Check out his long-term profitable tips as he unveils his new ‘Unders Taker’ system on Twitter. One of our favorite tails and a source of free and valuable o/u selections.
Wolfsburg v. Koln | Bundesliga | 9:30 am ET
THE PLAY: Wolfsburg win to nil @ +175 | .5u
Wout Weghorst is fully rested up front for Wolfsburg’s contest with Koln Saturday morning. While Renato Steffen and Paulo Octavio miss, the regular defensive alignment - anchored by the ever-impressing American stalwart John Anthony Brooks - remains intact for Wolfsburg. A personal fear on this play is the grueling schedule that Xaver Schlager has endured through a coupling of Oliver Glasner‘s reluctance to rotate and an excessive amount of minutes played in six days on international duty. An open midfield spurred by tired legs is the chief concern to our shutout win proposition.
On the bright side, we have garnered $.25 (or .25u) of closing line value with best price available having shortened to +150 at 888sport and Bovada.
Wolfsburg’s concession rate rests just under top spot held by RB Leipzig by a singular goal allowed in the Bundesliga. Meanwhile, Koln scores at the third-worst clip in the German top-flight.
Arsenal v. Liverpool | Premier League | 3 pm ET
THE PLAY: Arsenal ML @ +250 | .35u
THE PLAY: Arsenal -1 @ +550 | .25u
THE PLAY: Arsenal ML @ +235 | .4u
We anticipate a somewhat rotated Liverpool side considering the number of players deployed for their international contingent in the camp combined with a looming mid-week Champions League heavyweight clash against Real Madrid. These factors, along with Liverpool’s previously unthinkable current position in the league, will draw Jurgen Klopp’s eyes to the only chance Liverpool has to salvage success in this campaign: a return to Champions League glory.
Alexandre Lacazette has led the form charge for the Gunners up front behind the creativity of uplifting newcomer Martin Odegaard. Organizationally, Liverpool lack in the absence of Captain Jordan Henderson. We hope Arteta tactfully exploits Liverpool’s back seven organizational weakness by deploying an adventurous and preferred 4-2-1-3 or 4-2-3-1 formation. Gabriel’s inclusion significantly benefits our desired outcome probability.
We have gained significant closing line value on the alternate line play with $.70 (or .7u) accumulated. A ML price of +242 (average of our ML play prices) implies a probability of 29.2% while we estimate Arsenal collects three points from similar-natured matches between a 32.3% - 34.95% rate. Consequently, we calculate an estimated value edge between 3.1% - 5.75%.
MarathonBet and 888sport provide the best available prices for the plays now, respectively, at +224 and +480.
While Liverpool will most likely be victorious in the match and Arsenal will need a solid performance to pull the upset, the prices we played provide value opportunity.
Granada/Villarreal o2.5 @ +121 | .35u
Wolfsburg win to nil @ +175 | .5u
Arsenal ML @ +250 | .35u
Arsenal -1 @ +550 | .25u
Arsenal ML @ +235 | .4u
*To stay abreast on updates to plays, closing line value updates, results spreadsheets, and all Feinting the Line content, check out @FeintingtheLine on Twitter.