Feinting the Line Saturday picks: Metz v Rennes, Bremen v Wolfsburg, Huesca v Osasuna, Valladolid v Sevilla
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Metz v. Rennes | Ligue One | 8:00 am ET
THE PLAY: Metz ML @ +255 | .8u
THE PLAY: Metz -1 @ +600 | .2u
These prices have stuck steady. Meanwhile we perceive value at current prices because we estimate Metz wins similar matches at a 2.85% - 4.15% higher rate than a ML price of +255 implies at 28.2%.
Werder Bremen v. Wolfsburg | Bundesliga | 10:30 am ET
THE PLAY: Wolfsburg win to nil @ +265 | .5u
This season, shutout win prop bets have been a consistent source of closing line value and profit for FtL followers; however, a Wolfsburg clean sheet will be no straightforward task on Saturday morning as Koen Casteels and company look to keep Joshua Sargent and the rest of Florian Kohfeldt’s feisty mid-table squad at bay.
Bovada and 888sport generally provide high value win to nil markets compared to other bookmakers. We have garnered $.50 (or .5u) of closing line value as of writing. Best price available resides at Bovada at +215 on the both teams to score no and Wolfsburg win selection. Wolfsburg prices may be slightly long based on a perceived general value on home sides perspective that is greater than the actual valuation of current home sides on average by oddsmakers.
Huesca v. Osasuna | La Liga | 1:30 pm ET
THE PLAY: Osasuna PK @ +110 | .5u
This play is widely available for around five to ten cents more expensive than our posted price. We believe Osasuna is undervalued as the visitor. We estimate Osasuna gains three points from 33.9% - 35.15% of ilk-natured matches. Considering an implied probability of 31.3% based on a ML of +220 (available at the time we played), we estimate a 2.6% - 3.85% value edge on this play.
We prefer the safety of the draw no bet option because of the league rate of draw for the two teams. Huesca rests bottom of La Liga with a -6 goal difference comparatively to 13th positioned Osasuna.
Real Valladolid v. Sevilla | La Liga | 4:00 pm ET
THE PLAY: Sevilla ML @ +108 | .35u
THE PLAY: Sevilla -1 @ +220 | .325u
THE PLAY: Sevilla win to nil @ +230 | .325u
We have accumulated a combined closing line value of $1.13 (or 1.13u) on these spots.
The shutout win prop became a substantial $.50 (or .5u) more expensive.
These numbers are our only validation. The rest comes down to Julien Lopetegui and his men. Lucas Ocampos is rumored to be ready from the off and in the XI which enhances our desired outcome probability significantly.
THE PLAYS
Metz ML @ +255 | .8u
Metz -1 @ +600 | .2u
Wolfsburg win to nil @ +265 | .5u
Osasuna PK @ +110 | .5u
Sevilla ML @ +108 | .35u
Sevilla -1 @ +220 | .325u
Sevilla win to nil @ +230 | .325u
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