Feinting the Line Sunday soccer picks Bologna vs Sampdoria, Nimes vs Montpellier, Monaco vs Lille, 4 more
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Bologna v. Sampdoria | Serie A | 7:30 am ET
THE PLAY: Sampdoria ML @ +238 | .5u
THE PLAY: Sampdoria -1 @ +525 | .5u
Away wins prices may be inflated.
Prices for these plays remain available. Sampdoria visits Stadio Renato Dall’ara on Sunday. Despite entering the contest two spots higher in the table, +5 in comparative goal difference, and with higher advanced offensive and defensive analytics positions to this point in Serie A, oddsmakers have dubbed Claudio Ranieri’s side heavy underdogs.
We estimate Sampdoria produces three points from ilk-natured matches at a 33.1% - 34.65% clip. Accordingly, a ML price of +238, at an implied probability of 29.6%, carries an estimated 3.5% - 5.05% value edge.
While just under half of Sampdoria’s league victories have produced a greater than one goal margin, half of Bologna’s losses have come via the same margin; therefore, the alternate line play may carry enhanced value opportunity.
Nimes v. Montpellier| Ligue One | 8:00 am ET
THE PLAY: Montpellier ML @ +122 | .4u
THE PLAY: Montpellier -1 @ +240 | .4u
Away wins prices may be inflated.
We believe these spots provide solid value opportunity for late players because we estimate Montpellier wins similarly situated contests at a near coin flip rate. A ML price of +122 provides around 5% of value edge accordingly. Because we also played late, closing line value at time of writing is not a possibility.
Nimes has lost by two or more goals in twelve of seventeen league defeats this season, so the alternate line may provide enhanced value. Additionally, Nimes’ concession rate is the worst in the French top-flight this season. Despite sitting lowly in the relegation zone at 18th, we project Nimes should be even lower in the table based on expected goals difference, offensive and defensive advanced statistics categories, and expected points tally.
Celta Vigo v. Athletic Club Bilbao | La Liga | 9:00 am ET
THE PLAY: Athletic Club Bilbao ML @ +205 | .5u
THE PLAY: Athletic Club Bilbao -1 @ +490 | .5u
Away wins prices may be inflated.
You may notice a theme here.
We have garnered significant closing line value on these plays with $.35 (or .35u) gained on the ML play and a whopping $.90 (or .9u) gained on the alternate line bet. Best prices available reside at Pinnacle at +170 and +400, respectively.
Here’s to a revival of Bilbao’s form for some CLV cash on a Sunday.
Stade Rennais v. Racing Strasbourg | Ligue One | 10:00 am ET
THE PLAY: Racing Strasbourg ML @ +260 | .4u
Away wins prices may be inflated.
Although we have not gained any closing line value with sticky prices as of writing, we still believe this play holds value.
Julien Stephan is out, but Rennes is still reeling. The club is in a lowly place having lost its past six in all competitions without having secured three points in two calendar months.
Considering we estimate Thierry Laurey’s squad manages a win in 29.4% - 31.15% of like-poised matchups, we calculate an estimated 1.6% - 3.35% of value edge based on an implied probability of 27.8% at a ML price of +260.
Red Bull Leipzig v. Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga | 10:30 am ET
THE PLAY: Eintracht Frankfurt PK @ +260 | .25u
THE PLAY: Eintracht Frankfurt -1 @ +1000 | .125u
Away wins prices may be inflated.
We have accumulated $.31 (or .31u) of closing line value on the ML play and $1.00 (or 1u) of closing line value on the alternate line bet for a combined $1.31 (or 1.31u) of closing line value. Cheapest spots currently open exist at 888sport at +229 and +900, respectively.
We do not project Frankfurt to beat Leipzig; however, with Daichi Kamada, Amin Younes, Andre Silva, and Filip Kostic all available for Adolf Hutter’s selection after initial fitness and injury concerns, these prices suggest implied probabilities that we believe are lower than our actual desired outcome probability. Consequently, the plays carry value.
Chirstopher Nkunku is the key threat with line-breaking gameplay and breakaway pace ability for the home contingent.
We estimate a 3.75% - 4.15% value edge on the draw no bet play. We believe the PK price carries enhanced value over the ML price because of Frankfurt’s tendency to (or rate of) draw against top-half sides.
Monaco v. Lille | Ligue One | 12:05 pm ET
THE PLAY: Lille ML @ +235 | .25u
THE PLAY: Lille -1 @ +600 | .25u
Away wins prices may be inflated.
Not often do you get the chance to bet the leaders of a domestic league as the underdog. Enter Vegas’ odds for Monaco/Lille.
Bookmakers have confirmed our perceived value as best prices have shortened to +221 for the ML at Pinnacle and +550 for the alternate line at 888sport. Consequently, we have garnered a combined $.64 (or .64u) of closing line value.
A major concern is the inclusion of Renato Sanches in the initial XI. He has slowly crawled his way back into Christophe Galtier’s good graces following extended injury time. Sanches’ involvement on the pitch significantly increases our desired outcome probability (even more so when playing a higher quality opponent like Monaco as opposed to most Ligue One opposition).
We estimate Lille wins like-natured matches at a 4.15% - 4.75% higher rate than a ML price of +235 implies at a probability of 29.9%.
Manchester United v. West Ham United | Premier League | 3:15 pm ET
THE PLAY: West Ham ML @ +405 | .7u
THE PLAY: West Ham -1 @ +1125 | .6u
THE PLAY: West Ham win to nil @ +850 | .2u
Away wins prices may be inflated.
Is there any way to block Sean Miller from Twitter feed for just a day? I know I will be getting hell when another dog inevitably crashes to Ole's Reds.
The ML price has shortened to a best current spot of +359 at Unibet. Meanwhile, we gain $.46 (or .46u) of closing line value. The alternate line price has shortened to a best current spot of +1000 at Unibet. Meanwhile, we gain $1.25 (or 1.25u) of closing line value. The shutout win prop price has shortened to a best current spot of +700 at 888sport. Meanwhile, we gain $1.50 (or 1.5u) of closing line value.
We pen a value punt letter addressed to David Moyes and West Ham’s Champions League dreams.
Sincerely,
FtL
THE PLAYS
Sampdoria ML @ +238 | .5u
Sampdoria -1 @ +525 | .5u
Montpellier ML @ +122 | .4u
Montpellier -1 @ +240 | .4u
Athletic Club Bilbao ML @ +205 | .5u
Athletic Club Bilbao -1 @ +490 | .5u
Racing Strasbourg ML @ +260 | .4u
Eintracht Frankfurt PK @ +260 | .25u
Eintracht Frankfurt -1 @ +1000 | .125u
Lille ML @ +235 | .25u
Lille -1 @ +600 | .25u
West Ham ML @ +405 | .7u
West Ham -1 @ +1125 | .6u
West Ham win to nil @ +850 | .2u
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