Feinting the Line Saturday soccer: Everton vs Burnley, Fulham vs Manchester City, Getafe vs Atletico Madrid
Everton v. Burnley, Premier League, 12:30 pm EST; Fulham v. Manchester City, Premier League, 3 pm; Getafe v. Atletico Madrid, La Liga, 3 pm.
If you plan on tailing, please do so with responsibility and caution. Before you tail, please read our introduction post on Bettors Insider describing who we are, our history, and our betting style. Additionally, check out @FeintingtheLine on Twitter. Best of luck with all your plays.
Everton v. Burnley | Premier League | 12:30 pm ET
THE PLAY: Everton ML @ Even | .65u
THE PLAY: Everton -1 @ +175 | .2u
THE PLAY: Everton win to nil @ +240 | .4u
This ML price has shortened marginally by about $.10 (or .1u) on most markets. While the alternate line price is still available, we have garnered $.35 (or .35u) of closing line value on the shutout win prop. Best price now available is +205 at Bovada for Everton shutout win.
We estimate Carlo Ancelotti’s Toffees collects three points at a 3.4% - 4.75% higher than coin flip rate. Accordingly, an even money line provides value.
Burnley has failed to net in eleven of its twelve Premier League losses this season. Sean Dyche’s side scores at the joint second worst rate in the English top-flight. Meanwhile, Everton has kept a clean sheet in its three most recent league victories.
Fulham v. Manchester City| Premier League | 3:00 pm ET
THE PLAY: Manchester City win to nil @ +112 | .5u
Although Pep Guardiola’s defense has looked shaky at the back in recent contests, this matchup provides an opportunity to regain form. Eight of Fulham’s twelve league defeats have come via shutout. Thirteen of Manchester City’s twenty-one Premier League wins did not see concessions from the Cityzens. Plus-money is a solid look while we have gained a few cents of closing line value as of writing with more movement as a decent possibility.
Getafe v. Atletico Madrid | La Liga | 3:00 pm ET
THE PLAY: Getafe/Atletico Madrid o2 @ +122 | .25u
THE PLAY: Getafe/Atletico Madrid o2.5 @ +205 | .25u
Plays are still available at these prices within a few cents, but we are starting to gain late momentum in our favor on the line as prices have dropped marginally across markets. High price variation exists in these markets as well, so late players have a nice opportunity here.
We estimate similarly situated contests produce three goals at a 2.25% - 4% higher rate than a price of +205 suggests at an implied probability of 32.8%.
Everton ML @ Even | .65u
Everton -1 @ +175 | .2u
Everton win to nil @ +240 | .4u
Manchester City win to nil @ +112 | .5u
Getafe/Atletico Madrid o2 @ +122 | .25u
Getafe/Atletico Madrid o2.5 @ +205 | .25u
*To stay abreast on updates to plays, closing line value updates, results spreadsheets, and all Feinting the Line content, check out @FeintingtheLine on Twitter.