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Newcastle United v. Aston Villa | Premier League | 3 pm EST
THE PLAY: Aston Villa ML @ +110 | .5u
THE PLAY: Aston Villa -1 @ +210 | .4u
THE PLAY: Aston Villa win to nil @ +310 | .3u
Steve Bruce’s Magpies plays host to Aston Villa on Friday. Newcastle looks for any possible way to secure a point with relegation breathing down its neck. And we are back again, with the away wins.
Aston Villa’s recent down-trodden form without star-man Jack Grealish, seemingly has implicated a recency-bias into the oddsmakers prices here. Despite Dean Smith’s 1- 3 record in the absence of his Captain in recent weeks, we believe these plays provide solid value opportunity for late buyers. A major factor in our increased desired probability outcome for this matchup (compared to a normal matchup of these teams without Jack Grealish) is the absence of Allan Saint-Maximin, Callum Wilson, and Miguel Almiron. The three most dynamic attacking pieces for Steve Bruce’s selection are unavailable.
While the shutout win price has shortened substantially in our favor due to the absences meaning a significantly lower percentage chance for Newcastle to score a goal (our desired outcome probability increased), it is puzzling that the same logic has not applied to the ML and alternate line prices (our actual desired probability outcome is also higher for these bets post-injury news, but probably not as substantial an increase) which have stuck steady despite the injury news. We chalk this phenomenon up to the aforementioned recent form of the Villains.
As of the time of this writing we have garnered $.85 (or .85u) of closing line value on our shutout win prop. This bet type is a grease-fire and you will save years on your life if you simply do not watch when you place these types of wagers. A best price available now exists at 888sport while we originally took at Bovada.
Our ML and alternate line plays are still available at listed prices at 888sport. We estimate the Villains wins similarly situated matches at a 52.15% - 55.25% rate. Accordingly, based on an implied probability of 47.6% at a ML price of +110, we calculate an estimated 4.55% - 7.65% value edge on the ML.
THE PLAYS
Aston Villa ML @ +110 | .5u
Aston Villa -1 @ +210 | .4u
Aston Villa win to nil @ +310 | .3u
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