Feinting the Line's early Saturday soccer: Bordeaux vs Metz, Wolfsburg vs Hertha Berlin, Bologna vs Lazio
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Bordeaux v. Metz | Ligue One | 7:00 am ET
THE PLAY: Metz PK @ +165 | .3u
THE PLAY: Metz ML @ +277 | .3u
With best available PK and ML prices shortening to +120 (Bovada) and +235 (Pinnacle), we have garnered a significant $.42 (or .42u) and $.45 (or .45u) of closing line value on these plays.
We estimate these teams are similarly matched. Vegas has admitted substantial value on these plays, but we estimate even more value with an approximate edge of 9% if you took at the +277 ML price. Although the original price implied a probability of 26.5% we estimate Frederic Antonetti’s side wins similar matches at an approximated 33.75% – 37.25% clip.
Bordeaux enters the contest 11th in the table while Metz rests at 6th position, +10 in goal difference compared to the opposition. Bordeaux has accomplished one point from its preceding five league encounters.
Wolfsburg v. Hertha Berlin | Ligue One | 9:30 am ET
THE PLAY: VfL Wolfsburg ML @ -118 | .25u
THE PLAY: VfL Wolfsburg -1 @ +158 | .7u
THE PLAY: Wolfsburg win to nil @ +240 | .5u
Knock on wood now. Wolfsburg has been our cash cow this season. Does she have any milk left for us at the Volkswagen Arena for mid-Saturday morning Bundesliga?
We have garnered a substantial $.8 (or .8u) of combined closing line value on these plays. Cannot complain about positive closing line value, but we expected more.
We estimate Wolfsburg proceeds with three points in 60.2% - 62% of like-situated matchups. Our desired outcome estimated probability rests between 6.1% - 7.9% higher than the ML price of -118 implies (54.1%). Therefore, we believe the plays provide significant value opportunities.
Bologna v. Lazio | Serie A | Noon ET
THE PLAY: Lazio ML @ +110 | .5u
THE PLAY: Lazio -1 @ +220 | .5u
Best prices for these plays have slipped to even and +195, respectively. 888sport supplies the cheapest current lines. Consequently, we have picked up a closing line value of $.10 (or .1u) on the ML play and $.25 (or .25u) on the alternate line play. While these closing line value gains may seem marginal, the prices still have room to shorten with potential for sharp and public money to back the Simone Inzaghi-led team before a lunch kickoff on the east coast. Additionally, we posted the play only 24 hours prior.
We estimate Lazio wins similarly situated fixtures above a coin-flip rate. Hence, the plus money plays provide solid value. Four of Bologna’s past five defeats in Serie A have concluded with a margin of two goals or more, so the alternate line may provide some added value. Lazio’s embarrassing collapse at the hands of the somewhat out of form Champions of the World at the week’s Champions League matchday is/was a possible reason for the inflated prices.
THE PLAYS
THE PLAY: Metz PK @ +165 | .3u
THE PLAY: Metz ML @ +277 | .3u
THE PLAY: VfL Wolfsburg ML @ -118 | .25u
THE PLAY: VfL Wolfsburg -1 @ +158 | .7u
THE PLAY: Wolfsburg win to nil @ +240 | .5u
THE PLAY: Lazio ML @ +110 | .5u
THE PLAY: Lazio -1 @ +220 | .5u