Feinting the Line early Sunday soccer: Montpellier v SRFC, Nimes v FCGB, Strasbourg v Angers, AC Milan v Inter
If you plan on tailing, please do so with responsibility and caution. Before you tail, please read our introduction post on Bettors Insider describing who we are, our history, and our betting style. Additionally, check out @FeintingtheLine on Twitter. Best of luck with all your plays.
Montpellier HSC v. Stade Rennais | Ligue One | 7:00 am ET
THE PLAY: Montpellier -1 @ +460 | .25u
Prices have held steady on this play. Although Rennes sits four spots above Montpellier in the table with a game in hand, recent form has been shaky at best. Rennes has won a single game in its past five outings in Ligue One. Meanwhile, Montpellier has won its previous three matches in all competitions including an impressive victory against Lyon last weekend.
We estimate Michel Der Zakarian’s men pick up three points at a 2.4% - 3.65% higher clip than a ML price of +205 suggests at an implied probability of 32.8%.
Nimes Olympique v. Girondins de Bordeaux | Ligue One | 9:00 am ET
THE PLAY: Bordeaux PK @ -137 | .375u
THE PLAY: Bordeaux ML @ +130 | .05u
THE PLAY: Bordeaux -1 @ +270 | .5u
Bordeaux visits Stade des Cosdtieres on Matchweek 26 of the French top-flight’s season. Nimes holds the worst goal difference of any Ligue one side by a healthy margin (-8 from 2nd worst). Alternatively, Bordeaux’s expected goals, expected goals allowed, and goal difference factors suggest its spot in the table is appropriate to slightly unlucky.
Although lines have stuck for these plays, we remain confident in the value they offer. We estimate Bordeaux wins matches of similar ilk at a 45% - 47% rate. Accordingly, the ML bet, at a price of +130, provides an estimated value edge of 1.5% - 3.5% considering an implied probability of 43.5%.
We believe the PK or alternate line plays may provide marginally higher value contemplating Bordeaux’s league-average draw rate and Nimes pension to lose by a margin of greater than one in defeats (eight of previous ten defeats in all competitions), respectively.
Racing Strasbourg Alsace v. Angers SCO | Ligue One | 9:00 am ET
THE PLAY: Angers PK @ +149 | .25u
THE PLAY: Angers ML @ +255 | .3u
THE PLAY: Angers -1 @ +650 | .3u
These plays are still widely available. Despite lines sticking steady, we see value in the road favorites, Angers. We estimate Angers collects three points at a 3% - 4.25% higher clip than a ML price of +255 implies (28.2%).
AC Milan v. Inter Milan | Serie A | 9:00 am ET
THE PLAY: AC Milan PK @ +168 | .25u
THE PLAY: AC Milan ML @ +272 | .05u
THE PLAY: AC Milan -1 @ +700 | .25u
After conceding late on to draw against Red Star Belgrade in the first leg of the Round of 32 Europa League tie, AC Milan hosts Inter Milan on Sunday. The Rossoneri will welcome a fully rested Franck Kessie and Zlatan Ibrahimovic back into the fold. Rafael Leao will likely get the nod down one of the offensive flanks considering his 45’ cameo at the weekend.
Although Stefano Pioli’s side lightened our pocketbook last time out, we believe his Red and Blacks is undervalued in this spot, once again. We estimate Milan wins similarly situated contests in like conditions between 29.7% - 32% of the time. Considering an implied probability of 26.9% based on a ML price of +272, the bet provides an estimated 2.8% - 5.1% value edge.
While the PK and ML prices are still widely available, we have gained $.50 (or .5u) of closing line value on the alternate line play since posting to Twitter.
THE PLAYS
Montpellier -1 @ +460 | .25u
Bordeaux PK @ -137 | .375u
Bordeaux ML @ +130 | .05u
Bordeaux -1 @ +270 | .5u
Angers PK @ +149 | .25u
Angers ML @ +255 | .3u
Angers -1 @ +650 | .3u
AC Milan PK @ +168 | .25u
AC Milan PK @ +272 | .05u
AC Milan -1 @ +700 | .25u