5 Feinting the Line Saturday soccer picks for Bundesliga, Premier League, La Liga, Ligue 1
If you plan on tailing, please do so with responsibility and caution. Before you tail, please read our introduction post on Bettors Insider describing who we are, our history, and our betting style. Additionally, check out @FeintingtheLine on Twitter. Best of luck with all your plays.
Augsburg v. VfL Wolfsburg | Bundesliga | 9:30 am ET
THE PLAY: VfL Wolfsburg ML @ -107 | .5u
THE PLAY: VfL Wolfsburg -1 @ +176 | .3u
THE PLAY: VfL Wolfsburg win to nil +260 | .3u
Early play equals juice we do not lay. We have garnered solid closing line value - since posting January 31 - on all plays in this match. The Wolfsburg shutout win price has increased in our favor. We have snatched $.30 (or .3u) of closing line value there with the best price now available at +230 at Bovada and 888sport. The Wolfsburg alternate line has risen from +176 to a best price of +156 now available at MarathonBet. The best ML price available is at Pinnacle at -119. A combined $.62 (or .62u) of closing value on these plays would be rewarding in the event they cash.
Regardless of the oddsmakers admitting some value in our plays, we are confident in the value behind these plays because we estimate Wolfsburg wins against like opponents, in like conditions between 54.75% - 58% of the time. This actual probability estimation indicates value on the Wolfsburg ML considering the bookies’ implied probability for our desired outcome of 51.7% at a ML price of -107.
Wolfsburg visits WWK Arena on scintillating form having won three of its past four Bundesliga matches, including a four-goal tie against Julian Naglesmann’s RB Leipzig a few weeks ago. Augsburg sits thirteenth in the table on 22 points with a goal difference of -10 while Wolfsburg enters the contest third in the Bundesliga on 35 points with a goal difference of +11.
Augsburg has failed to net in three of its previous five losses in the Bundesliga. Meanwhile, Wolfsburg has shutout its opponents in four of its previous five Bundesliga victories.
FSV Mainz v. Union Berlin | Bundesliga | 9:30 am ET
THE PLAY: Union Berlin ML @ +145 | .45u
We have gained marginal closing value of $.14u or (.14u) on this play as this best price now available is +131 at MarathonBet.
As far as narrative conjectures go, we believe the oddsmakers may have undervalued the Union Berlin ML based on two recency bias factors. At first glance, Union Berlin has been on rough form, in its last five; however, four of those games came against sides sitting seventh or higher in the table. Union Berlin’s results over the stretch include a tie against Wolfsburg, a win against Bayer Leverkusen, a loss at RB Leipzig, and tie hosting Borussia Monchengladbach. Nothing to be ashamed of there.
Additionally, Mainz recently upset RB Leipzig. Mainz, however, rests 19 points lower in the table with a dreadful -22 goal difference including a whopping (2nd worst in the league) 40 goals conceded. Union Berlin enters with a starkly contrasted goal difference of +10 which suggest legitimacy in its above-average position in the table (eighth). We count on Urd Fischer and company to right the ship at the weekend.
Fulham v. West Ham | Premier League | 12:30 pm ET
THE PLAY: West Ham ML @ +115 | .25u
THE PLAY: West Ham -1 @ +230 | .25u
On Wednesday, Jesse Lingard’s Hammers coming out party drove West Ham to a 3-1 away win at Aston Villa. Lingard, David Moyes’, and the boys also drove Feinting the Line followers straight to the bank cashing our alternate line (+540), ML (+236), and PK (+151) plays for a total of +3.47575u. These afternoon wins capped FtL’s best-ever single day at +10u and change on Wednesday.
We go back to the well as we believe the Hammers are undervalued at these prices, once again. While these prices are still available, we expect them to drop by game time. We estimate West Ham wins similarly situated matches at around a coin flip rate. The positive difference (comparison) in desired outcome actual probability versus implied probability suggests value for these plays considering an implied probability of 46.5% at a ML price of +115.
Sevilla v. Getafe | La Liga | 3:00 pm ET
THE PLAY: Sevilla ML @ -122 | .75u
THE PLAY: Sevilla ML @ -125 | .2u
While we had garnered significant closing line value earlier in the week (ML price up to a best price of -140 at points), any significant closing line value has been relinquished with a best price now available of -128 at Pinnacle. Regardless, we expect the price to rise on this play further by game time.
Additionally, we see value irrespective of line movement. Sevilla has a +16-goal difference compared to Getafe this season. We estimate Sevilla wins similarly situated matches at a 3% - 5% higher rate than the ML price of -122 suggests at an implied probability of 55%. Sevilla has won eight of its past nine matches in all competitions with the only loss coming to La Liga title favorites Atletico Madrid.
We back Lucas Ocampos and a scorching form Youssef En-Nesyri to power the Julen Lopetegui side to victory.
RC Lens v. Stade Rennais | League One | 3:00 pm ET
THE PLAY: Stade Rennais PK @ -107 | .3u
THE PLAY: Stade Rennais ML @ +166 | .3u
Although marginally cheaper prices for these plays are now available, we see value on Rennes plays at these prices. Eduardo Camavinga is a world-class talent. Julien Stephan’s side has slipped lately, but the return of Sehrou Guirassy brings a much-needed spark plug to lead the Rennes’ line.
Rennes’ goal difference is +6 compared to Lens. Additionally, Rennes has a game in hand, yet Lens sit two spots lower in the table with three more losses.
Considering these factors, as well as others, we estimate Rennes wins a game under these conditions at around a 40% clip. Accordingly, these plays provide value when considering an implied probability of 37.6% based on a ML price of -107.
Congrats if you had the foresight to hold off on these plays and can take a cheaper number now. We would recommend these plays at reduced rates if you did not take earlier.
THE PLAYS
VfL Wolfsburg ML @ -107 | .5u
VfL Wolfsburg -1 @ +176 | .3u
VfL Wolfsburg win to nil +260 | .3u
Union Berlin ML @ +145 | .45u
West Ham ML @ +115 | .25u
West Ham -1 @ +230 | .25u
Sevilla ML @ -122 | .75u
Sevilla ML @ -125 | .2u
Stade Rennais PK @ -107 | .3u
Stade Rennais ML @ +166 | .3u