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Tottenham vs. Chelsea | Premier League | 3 pm ET
THE PLAY: Tottenham Double Chance @ -119 | .1725u
THE PLAY: Tottenham PK @ +180 | .1725u
THE PLAY: Parlay - Tottenham ML & Tanguy Ndombele > .5 assists +2654 | .15u
Do not bet if you need a must-have winner because who know what happens here. However, we do think these spots provide considerable value for a sprinkle. Tottenham is without striker Harry Kane, driving the Chelsea price higher. In addition to Kane’s absence, public money has cheapened the Tottenham ML price as it is estimated between 86% - 92% of all ML tickets placed are on Chelsea. Accordingly, we expect sharp money to come in on Tottenham as game time approaches. The Tottenham handle should exceed the Chelsea handle at game time despite all the public tickets on Chelsea in this one.
Said scenario could already be playing out considering the Tottenham Double Chance price has risen $.05 (or .05u) while the PK price has also risen marginally to +171 from +180 since we posted the plays at 6:30 pm ET on February 3. Best prices available for our straight plays are now at MarathonBet.
Although we hope to gain more significant closing line value as game time approaches, we are confident these plays present a value driven investment regardless. While the Tottenham ML is priced at +276 (Pinnacle) implying a probability of 26.6% for our desired outcome, we estimate Tottenham wins in similarly situated matches against Chelsea 27.5% - 32.5% of the time. The security of the draw no bet at plus money is certainly appetizing considering our estimated actual probability of a Tottenham win.
Although the network talking heads and Twitter pundits were quick to praise Thomas Tuchel’s so-called masterpiece against Burnley at the weekend, Tuchel’s Chelsea reign is simply comprised of a home draw to an ailing Wolves side and a home victory against Burnley who has mired in the 15-18 range of table all season. Chelsea has scored a whopping two goals in that time. Tactically, we are confident in the play if Mourinho plays a preferred XI in a 4-3-3 or 4-2-1-3/4-2-3-1 setup. We aim for Tuchel to deploy a conservative 3-4-3 as he typically does in high stakes matches, but will not bother if he opts otherwise.
If Jose Mourinho’s Tottenham does emerge victorious, Tanguy Ndombele will have more than likely created the Hotspurs’ goal. We play a longshot here. The overall parlay price was computed using prices of +290 and +775 (available at time of posting) for each leg of the parlay, respectively. An industry-weighted average standard price mitigation multiplier was used to compute parlay price due to mitigating same-game and contributing-play factors. Please avoid this play if you are on a book, such as Bovada -- which we are not knocking as they have better prices comparatively on other types of plays -- that overprices same-game and contributing-play price mitigation factors.
The Hotspurs comes into the match level with its opponent on 33 points. Tottenham, however, enters the contest with a +1 higher goal difference than Chelsea, a higher position in the table, and a game in hand.
THE PLAYS
Tottenham Double Chance @ -119 | .1725u
Tottenham PK @ +180 | .1725u
Parlay - Tottenham ML & Tanguy Ndombele > .5 assists +2654 | .15u
Goals Don’t Move Podcast (Instagram: goalsdontmove)
We were lucky enough to be invited on the Goals Don’t Move podcast on February 2. Show hosts, Philip Addison and James Lamb, speak on a bevy of Premier League topics weekly on Tuesdays. Go check out Feinting the Line’s first feature on the Goals Don’t Move podcast in the last fifteen minutes of Episode 27: available now on Buzzsprout, Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen. Big thanks to Philip and James for having us on and go check them out for fun Premier League content. We may be in further collaboration going forward.
*To stay abreast on updates to plays, closing line value updates, results spreadsheets, and all Feinting the Line content, check out @FeintingtheLine on Twitter.