Feinting the line picks Burnley v Man City, Fulham v Leicester City, Bordeaux v Lille & Aston Villa v West Ham
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Burnley vs. Manchester City | Premier League | 1 pm ET
THE PLAY: Manchester City win to nil @ +110 | .8u
We have garnered $.28 (or .28u) closing line value on this play since we posted it to our Twitter page six days ago. Best price available is now a juicy -118 at Pinnacle. Manchester City has won its past five matches in the Premier League via shutout. We bet on the streak to continue against a Burnley side who average .65 goals in Premier League competition this season. Congrats if you played early. The plays should only get more expensive as game time approaches.
Fulham vs. Leicester City | Premier League | 1 pm ET
THE PLAY: Leicester City ML @ -121 | .45u
THE PLAY: Leicester City -1 @ +160 | .55u
Unfortunately, prices have plummeted against our cause on these plays by about $.30 cents because we posted minutes before Wilfred Ndidi went down with a hamstring injury against Everton on 42’ five days ago. We also told followers to get out of the plays, if they could, in the immediate aftermath of Ndidi’s injury.
Leicester City suffered a disappointing defeat to Leeds United at the weekend while Fulham drew to West Bromwich. The plays have some hope considering Fulham’s more conservative play style (than Leeds United) will give Leicester City a higher chance to play its brand of football. However, the Ndidi absence’s negative effect on Leicester’s chances in this contest cannot be understated.
Bordeaux vs. LOSC Lille | Ligue One | 1 pm ET
THE PLAY: LOSC Lille ML @ +116 | .5u
THE PLAY: LOSC Lille -1 @ +235 | .5u
THE PLAY: LOSC Lille ML @ +120 | .2u
THE PLAY: LOSC Lille -1 @ +240 | .3u
With Lille at the head of Ligue One on 48 points and +22 goal difference, Bordeaux settles mid-table with a starkly contrasted goal difference of +2.
Renato Sanches should get the nod from Cristophe Galtier for his long-awaited return to the starting XI. Although Lille has managed to stay atop the table in his absence, the team has a different ceiling and quality when Sanches graces the pitch. We would take this play in Sanches’ absence at the prices offered because we estimate Lille win a match of similar stature at about a coin-flip rate. Considering an implied probability of 46.3%, the plus money plays provide solid value.
Even so, Sanches is rumored to be in the XI causing our desired outcome probability to be even higher. The alternate line specifically has increased viability with Sanches’ inclusion. Accordingly, we are adding to our original plays at current prices which are slightly more favorable than when we originally took.
Aston Villa vs. West Ham | Premier League | 3:15 pm ET
THE PLAY: West Ham PK @ +151 | .425u
THE PLAY: West Ham ML @ +236 | .4u
THE PLAY: West Ham -1 @ +540 | .35u
Prices for these plays are still available. West Ham is on good form, having won three of its previous five Premier League matches with the only loss coming to Liverpool who - despite the Twitter pundits - we still rate.
We believe this matchup will be very close-cut. We estimate West Ham wins similarly situated matches at a 2.25% - 4.75% higher clip than the ML price of +236 suggests at an implied probability of 29.8%
Manchester City win to nil @ +110 | .8u
Leicester City ML @ -121 | .45u
Leicester City -1 @ +160 | .55u
LOSC Lille ML @ +116 | .5u
LOSC Lille -1 @ +235 | .5u
LOSC Lille ML @ +120 | .2u
LOSC Lille -1 @ +240 | .3u
West Ham PK @ +151 | .425u
West Ham ML @ +236 | .4u
West Ham -1 @ +540 | .35u
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