Sunday Feinting the Line picks: Cagliari vs Sassuolo, Cologne vs Bielefeld, Granada vs Celta, Nantes vs Monaco
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Cagliari vs. Sassuolo | Serie A
THE PLAY: Sassuolo PK @ -135 | .5u
THE PLAY: Sassuolo ML @ +133 | .35u
Visiting Sassuolo enters the contest at 9th in the table on 30 points while Cagliari mires in the relegation-zone at 18th in the table. Cagliari has collected just under half Sassuolo’s total points tally in Serie A (Cagliari on 14).
Prices are still available for these plays at MarathonBet. Sassuolo should win a game of this stature at just under a coin-flip rate. Feel free to play the PK if you fancy a safer bet as not much, if any, value is gained or lost there compared to playing the ML. The ML price of +133 provides plenty of value considering an implied probability of 42.9%.
FC Cologne vs. Arminia Bielefeld | Bundesliga
THE PLAY: Arminia Bielefeld Double Chance @ -124 | .3u
THE PLAY: Arminia Bielefeld PK @ +161 | .3u
THE PLAY: Arminia Bielefeld ML @ +258 | .3u
Prices are a bit cheaper for these plays now. Despite line movement against our cause, we back the play because we estimate Arminia Bielefeld wins matches under similar parameters 32% - 37% of the time. The actual probability of the pick provides value considering an implied probability of 27.9% at a ML price of +258. Congrats if you held off early and can get a higher price now. Koln has not won a game at home in the Bundesliga this season; however, Arminia Bielefeld’s scoring numbers on the road are not encouraging either. The contest is likely to be a low-scoring, scrappy affair as two sides fight to avoid relegation.
Granada vs. Celta Vigo | La Liga
THE PLAY: Granada PK @ -115 | .325u
THE PLAY: Granada ML @ +156 | .6u
THE PLAY: Granada -1 @ +341 | .375u
We took this play very early and the risk has bit us a bit here. The line has jumped against us, so these plays are much cheaper now. Celta Vigo has not won in five matches in all competitions; however, Eduardo Coudet also could not call on the services of talisman Iago Aspas to lead the line in four of those contests. Celta Vigo is a different side with Aspas in the XI and his inclusion is a tough blow to our cause. These plays have dwindled in value. We show you the good so we will also show you the bad. Unfortunate here considering we valued the plays so much that they added up to 1.3u.
Nantes vs. AS Monaco | Ligue One
THE PLAY: AS Monaco ML @ -105 | .1u
THE PLAY: AS Monaco ML @ -112 | .35u
THE PLAY: AS Monaco -1 @ +173 | .4u
We have marginal positive closing line movement with this play. AS Monaco -1 alternate line is available at a best price of +160 at 888sport currently. The ML at 888sport is now -112 and we will also sprinkle a little at the price right now. $.13 (or .13u) of closing line value is marginal on the alternate line, but we expect the ML and alternate line prices to become more expensive as game time approaches.
Regardless of the line movement, we estimate this 4th place Monaco side wins matches under similar parameters against a 17th place Nantes side at a 2% - 4% higher clip than the ML price of -112 implies.
THE PLAYS
Sassuolo PK @ -135 | .5u
Sassuolo ML @ +133 | .35u
Arminia Bielefeld Double Chance @ -124 | .3u
Arminia Bielefeld PK @ +161 | .3u
Arminia Bielefeld ML @ +258 | .3u
Granada PK @ -115 | .325u
Granada ML @ +156 | .6u
Granada -1 @ +341 | .375u
AS Monaco ML @ -105 | .1u
AS Monaco ML @ -112 | .35u
AS Monaco -1 @ +173 | .4u
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