Wednesday Premier League plays of the day from Feinting the Line: Brighton & Hove Albion vs Fulham
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Brighton & Hove Albion vs. Fulham | Premier League
THE PLAY: Fulham PK @ +186 | .35u
THE PLAY: Fulham ML @ +298 | .2u
THE PLAY: Fulham -1 @ +800 | .2u
The bookmakers have not admitted as much value as we thought they would at this point. Best prices available for these plays have risen marginally to +174 (Pinnacle), +283 (Pinnacle), and +750 (888sport), respectively, since we posted the plays to our Twitter a day ago. Prices are expected to rise further – as the recent line movement trend suggests – but even if we fail to garner additional closing line value, we like this spot.
Our analysis suggests Fulham wins similarly situated fixtures at a 2% - 4% higher rate than the bookmakers are suggesting at this implied probability (implied probability = 25.1% based on a ML price of +298). This analysis incorporates expected lineups. Spark-plug Tariq Lamptey is a hefty blow to the attacking prospects of the Brighton XI. The dynamic right back creates a high percentage of the Seagulls forward output down the right flank. The bookmakers could be underestimating his absence in the price for this play (though all can be rest assured they are aware of the absence; we believe the plays provide value, but this is simply a conjecture as to a possible contributing factor of that value).
Brighton conquered Blackpool at the weekend to advance to the Fifth Round of the English FA Cup. Yves Bissouma marked his re-introduction into the Brighton starting lineup with a cracking goal on 27’ to open the scoring with true class. His presence and effectiveness as a dynamic midfield pivot in this Brighton side cannot be understated. Meanwhile, Fulham disappointedly crashed out through a three to nil defeat against Burnley on Sunday. Fulham’s last three results in all competitions are losses while Brighton has won two on the hop. Scott Parker will be desperate for his men to find three points somewhere. We hope it is Fulham leapfrogging Brighton (with a game in hand) on the 20th round of Premier League action.
THE PLAYS
Fulham PK @ +186 | .35u
Fulham ML @ +298 | .2u
Fulham -1 @ +800 | .2u
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