Feinting the Line will be producing preliminary picks on Bettors Insider all week. If you plan on tailing, please do so with responsibility and caution. Before you tail, please read our introduction post on Bettors Insider describing who we are, our history, and our betting style. Additionally, check out @FeintingtheLine on Twitter. Best of luck with all your footy plays.
Schalke v. SC Freiburg | Bundesliga
THE PLAY: Schalke/SC Freiburg o2.5 @ +-120 | .3u
Laying a tiny bit of juice here in a low-risk spot because these teams have produced goals since November.
Schalke v. SC Freiburg | Bundesliga
THE PLAY: Schalke -1 @ +420 | .25u
We can hear the arm-chair hecklers now, “But Schalke hasn’t won a game all year!” Well, Freiburg is only seven points ahead and two league spots off relegation. We back Schalke to avenge last league game’s late let-up against Augsburg which deprived Schalke of three Bundesliga points which are crucial to lift the bottom side’s spirits. Freiburg tied a wavering Gladbach side before beating Arminia in its last two appearances. We are fading Freiburg’s ability to garner points from four straight Bundesliga games.
Arsenal v. Southampton | Premier League
THE PLAY: Southampton -1 @ +470 | .8u
Tape of these two teams over their past two Premier League games is overwhelming evidence in favor of this play. There is value here.
Bayern Munich v. VfL Wolfsburg | Bundesliga
THE PLAY: Bayern Munich -2 @ +150 | .25u
We are playing Bayern Munich in a small unit, plus money fashion. The general theory behind this bet is that Hansi Flick will probably pull out all the stops to reignite the Bayern winning fire after drawing two Bundesliga appearances in a row. Flick’s reigning European Champion Bayern Munich has won just three of its past seven games in all competitions. Additionally, Corentin Tolisso has recovered from injury fully; he is likely to return to the starting lineup. His presence brings a midfield technical quality and direct-passing ability that should open more spaces for Bayern’s attacking players. A primary reason for Bayern’s slip in form this season after a flawless German Treble run last season is the difference in depth and quality in the midfield between last year’s team and this year’s team. Tolisso’s injury coupled with the void produced by the departure of a top five midfielder in the world, Thiago, to Premier League Champions Liverpool left Munich short on experience and creativity in the middle of the park. Tolisso’s full recovery helps to quell that concern. Accordingly, we expect the German Treble holder to produce a high-flying comeback performance in a bid to regain its usual positioning at the peak of Bundesliga.
Inter Milan v. Napoli | Serie A
THE PLAY: Napoli -1 @ +495 | .45u
Napoli is on great form. We play early and hope the usually reliable Gattuso picks a preferred XI. Napoli go up against an out-of-form Internazionale side who recently suffered the morale blow of crashing out of the Champions League. Winner guarantees a second-place spot in Serie A table; therefore, we expect a no tricks left in the sleeve, enthralling battle. We value the Napoli ML at a coin flip, so the -1 @ +495 certainly provides some value.
Dijon FCO v. Lille | Ligue 1
THE PLAY: Lille -1 @ Even | .4u
No Renato Sanches still, but one must assume value at this even money price for a game that pits the peak of the Ligue 1 table against the very bottom of the table.
Fulham v. Brighton Hove & Albion | Premier League
THE PLAY: Fulham -1 @ +400 | .35u
Feinting the Line sees value in Scott Parker’s squad who impressed at the weekend against defending Premier League holder Liverpool in a draw where the Mitrovic-less Fulham led for a majority of the ninety minutes. We generally believe the markets have undervalued Fulham’s ability to put the ball in the back of the net this year. The side is aesthetically pleasing going forward despite Jurgen Klopp’s somewhat undermining long ball comment following Fulham’s draw to Liverpool. Andre-Frank Anguissa is a real engine to link play in the middle of the park. The danger in this play is the reason Fulham have lacked results in the Premier League leaving them in the relegation zone a quarter of the way through the season: naivety. Fulham is often naïve in playing too open or too elaborate once they score which has placed the squad amid a relegation war. Regardless, we believe they can compete against a shriveling Brighton side who have won just one game in its past eleven attempts in all competitions. The absence of Adam Lallana and likely absence or limited usage of burgeoning young star Tariq Lamptey enhance the value of the play as well.
Liverpool v. Tottenham Hotspur | Premier League
THE PLAY: Tottenham -1 @ +470 | .25u
Liverpool may very well win this game, but we think this alternate line provides value. Liverpool fades have profited Feinting the Line plus money twice this year already as we look for lucky number three. Liverpool is one of the best teams in the world, but amidst multiple injuries at the back, on-form firing man Diogo Jota has also now taken to the injury list for the Premier League Champion. Tottenham’s Tanguy Ndombele, Harry Kane, and Son Hueng-min have been firing on all cylinders for Jose Mourinho. We back Tottenham to find something special.
West Ham United v. Crystal Palace | Premier League
THE PLAY: Crystal Palace -1 @ +615 | 1u
West Ham has been on sensational form in the Premier League this year. To the surprise of many, the Hammers sit just three points behind fourth-spot Champions League qualifying at sixth position in the table. Despite the fact David Moyes’ well-drilled, tactically-sound side has won four of its past five, none of those wins came against an on-form opponent or an opponent higher than eighth in the table currently. Additionally, our eye-test and chance-creation analytics paint a picture that West Ham has slipped in production since the injury of do-it-all talisman number nine Michail Antonio whose goal-scoring record since the return of footy post-lockdown has been nothing short of unthinkable. On the other hand, Crystal Palace has won only two of its last five; however, Hodgson’s side have looked impressive going forward at various points in the season with creativity flowing through the wide areas with Eze and Zaha, both on sharp form. We rely on one of them to produce the goal that cashes our value for Feinting the Line’s largest unit play on our preliminary card.
Barcelona v. Real Sociedad | La Liga
THE PLAY: Real Sociedad -1 @ +410 | .5u
Although Mikel Oyarzabal will likely not take part, David Silva recently returned to the team atop the La Liga Santander table. He looks to wreak havoc between the lines at the Camp Nou on Wednesday against Koeman’s bi-polar Barca.
Paris Saint-Germain v. Lorient | Ligue 1
THE PLAY: Lorient ML @ +1990 | .1u
We ride relegation-battling Lorient against the perennial Ligue 1 title holder.
Stade Rennais v. Marseille | Ligue 1
THE PLAY: Marseille -1 @ +435 | .7u
Decent unit size on a big plus money play here considering Marseille has taken four victories in its prior five attempts with the sole loss at the hands of Manchester City in a Champions League Group Match. The result of which match was meaningless to the French. The fourth top Ligue 1 side impressed in a victory against an on-form Monaco last time out. Rennes possess a stellar young talent in Eduardo Camavinga, but it has won only two of its last fourteen in all competitions.
FC Cologne v. Bayer Leverkusen | Bundesliga
Hoffenheim v. Red Bull Leipzig | Bundesliga
THE PLAY: Parlay Bayer Leverkusen -1 & RB Leipzig -1 @ +335 | .25u
Feel free to play these separate. We are riding them together for juice purposes.
ALL THE PLAYS
Schalke/SC Freiburg o2.5 @ +-120 | .3u
Schalke -1 @ +420 | .25u
Southampton -1 @ +470 | .8u
Bayern Munich -2 @ +150 | .25u
Napoli -1 @ +495 | .45u
Lille -1 @ Even | .4u
Fulham -1 @ +400 | .35u
Tottenham -1 @ +470 | .25u
Crystal Palace -1 @ +615 | 1u
Real Sociedad -1 @ +410 | .5u
Lorient ML @ +1990 | .1u
Marseille -1 @ +435 | .7u
Parlay Bayer Leverkusen -1 & RB Leipzig -1 @ +335 | .25u
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