Feinting the Line preliminary picks for Tuesday Gameday include 2 Premier League and 2 Bundesliga matches
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Eintracht Frankfurt v. Borussia Monchengladbach | Bundesliga
THE PLAY: Borussia Monchengladbach -1 @ +275 | .25u
Borussia Monchengladbach travels to an Eintracht Frankfurt team that has a pension for draws in 2020. These two Bundesliga middleweights will value a result in this contest highly considering they are similarly situated in the table. Monchengladbach’s form has slipped drastically following an impressive start to its Bundesliga and Champions League campaigns. Marco Rose’s side squeezed into the final 16 participant pool in the UEFA Champions League recently following an uninspiring 2-0 thrashing from Real Madrid at the Santiago Bernabeu Stadium thanks to a goalless Inter Milan draw with Shakhtar Donetsk. The two dropped points crashed Conte’s Nerazzurri out of the competition. Borussia Monchengladbach has not won in four outings, so we are playing a small get-back spot here against a Frankfurt team who has failed to gain three points for nine appearances running. Of the last ten Monchengladbach wins, eight have seen winning margins of more than one goal. Additionally, the -1 line still gives us the possibility of pushing. Hence, we believe the alternate line provides more value than the moneyline.
Wolverhampton Wanderers v. Chelsea | Premier League
THE PLAY: Wolverhampton Wanderers PK @ +270 | .15u
Do not look now, but Frank Lampard’s high-flying Premier League squad finally looks to slightly be getting away from its winning-every-game form which has predominated its league and European conquests this season. Chelsea has only won two of its previous five, although we would be remiss not to accompany this stat with the fact that Premier League top spot challengers Tottenham as well as several other very trying opponents dotted Chelsea’s recent schedule. A tactical reason for the slip in Chelsea’s form is the injuries to first choice wingers Hakim Ziyech and Christian Pulisic who will be unavailable against Wolves on Tuesday. Additionally, winger Callum Hudson-Odoi misses out due to injury leaving the outright wing options slim for the Blues. Chelsea has world-class talent, so it is possible it outclasses Wolves in this matchup; however, we see some value on a Wolves draw no bet considering the lack of wide chance creation and crossing invention that we have recently seen from the Blues’ third-choice wingers. Delivery and service can especially affect an aerial and hold-up threat such as Olivier Giroud who has suddenly found himself first-choice striker on Lampard’s past few team-sheets. Nuno Espirito Santo has been acclaimed by many for his job at Wolves during the past few seasons, but currently, Wolves are desperate for a win as they sit thirteenth in the table, nine points above relegation.
VfB Stuttgart v. FC Union Berlin | Bundesliga
THE PLAY: VfB Stuttgart/FC Union Berlin o4 @ +305 | .15u
Sometimes these teams score goals. The prior five games played by both teams combined (ten games total) saw seven of those games score at least four goals.
VfB Stuttgart v. FC Union Berlin | Bundesliga
THE PLAY: FC Union Berlin -1 @ +505 | .2u
Two Bundesliga middleweights - vying for a spot in Bundesliga’s top-flight amid Borussia Dortmund unrest - fight for the opportunity to push closer to the coveted Champions League-securing fourth-place on Tuesday. Both teams are on solid form and present legitimate threats in front of goal. The tactical battle could easily go either way considering the contrasting formation styles these two teams employ. We believe Stuttgart is somewhat overvalued on the markets for this game because of its recent 5-1 thrashing of a Dortmund side that was struggling from Lucien Favre’s head-scratching formation and XI selections long before he was sacked. Union Berlin’s winning margin in its past five triumphs was greater than one on four occasions. While it is possible this line climbs above +505, we are confident enough in the value at +505 to play now.
Manchester City v. West Bromwich Albion | Premier League
THE PLAY: West Bromwich ML @ +3000 | .1u
Do we believe West Brom will win? No, but we can hope. It is conceivable this line rises above +3000 in the future, but there is value on this play at +3000 for us because we rate West Brom’s actual probability to win the game above its implied probability of .03% at this price. Somewhat shaky form seems the usual for Manchester City nowadays in the Premier League. While West Brom are in the relegation zone with only one league win this season, they are not the worst squad to grace the Premier League.
Borussia Monchengladbach -1 @ +275 | .25u
Wolverhampton Wanderers PK @ +270 | .15u
VfB Stuttgart/FC Union Berlin o4 @ +305 | .15u
FC Union Berlin -1 @ +505 | .2u
West Bromwich ML @ +3000 | .1u
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