With the 2025-26 NHL season in full swing, it's becoming clearer by the day who the real contenders are for the Stanley Cup. Bookmakers have started to shape the narrative a bit and shift around based on who has the potential and who is the fraud. However, we all know that the numbers don’t lie, and a quick glance at both the odds and on-ice performance gives us a really good idea of where teams stand in mid-December. Some of these teams might be a surprise, while others are to be expected at the top of the list.
The Avalanche are the clear front-runner for the cup at this point, and it’s not hard to see why. They lead the NHL in just about every stat that actually matters, and considering they’re sitting at just 21-2-7, they’re by far the toughest team to beat.
Colorado is scoring a league-best 3.93 GPG while also allowing the fewest at just 2.20 GAA. That’s a dangerous combination for any team, and then add in the fact that they rank 1st in total goals and assists, and 3rd on the PK with a dominant 86.0%, and you’ve got an NHL team that looks built for a long playoff run — and the odds show that. There are very few cracks in the armor of this team.
Nathan MacKinnon is smoking hot with 51 points, leading the team in both goals with 24 and assists with 27. Cale Makar and Martin Necas are also producing at a high level, as expected, keeping the offense rolling. In the crease, MacKenzie Blackwood and Scott Wedgewood are getting it done as both netminders have save percentages around .920 and solid goals-against averages with 2.21 and 2.11, respectively. The only weak spot we see is a mediocre power play, ranked 24th at 16.3%. But when you're scoring that much at even strength, it’s not a fatal flaw that’s going to bring them down.
Carolina’s numbers are a little strange, but the bookmakers still love them. They rank 5th in goals against at 2.82 GAA, which looks solid on paper, but goalie Brandon Bussi is doing a lot of the heavy lifting. His 2.09 GAA and .909 SV% are keeping the team afloat. Frederik Andersen has struggled, with a 3.15 GAA and .875 SV%, which is a bit of a concern come playoff time, where they’ll need everyone to pull their weight, and Bussi might need some rest.
Offensively, they sit 8th in total goals and are middle-of-the-pack in most other categories. Sebastian Aho leads the team in points with 26, followed closely by Seth Jarvis and Shayne Gostisbehere. No one is lighting it up offensively by themselves, though.
Their special teams are somewhat underwhelming as they rank 27th on the power play at 15.7% and 23rd on the penalty kill at 78.6%. They’ll definitely lose some games with those numbers, but they won’t be enough to derail their playoff hopes, however, in a tight playoff series, that could bite them. Still, they play a strong possession game, and when they’re on, they’re tough to beat. But at +800, they feel a little overpriced compared to how they’re actually playing.
To nobody’s surprise, Florida is getting respect in the betting market, but they haven’t earned it with their stats.
They rank 20th in goals and sit outside the top 15 in assists, shooting percentage, and penalty kill. Their power play is slightly better at 19.0% where they’re ranked 15th, but not enough to carry the load throughout the playoffs. Their GAA is 3.18 — tied for worst among these 7 contenders on our list.
Daniil Tarasov has been solid in net with a .911 SV% and 2.47 GAA, and Sergei Bobrovsky has chipped in with 2 shutouts of his own. But the offense just hasn’t been there. Sure, Brad Marchand leads the team with just 31 points, followed by Sam Reinhart with 27, but that’s way off the pace of teams like Colorado or Dallas.
This team has talent, no doubt, but they’re not playing like a top-tier contender. At +1000, this feels more like a bet on name value than performance. We just don’t think they look like they’re going for a 3rd Stanley Cup at this rate.
Tampa Bay is hanging around the top 10 in most key categories, and they’ve got one of the best goaltenders in the game in Andrei Vasilevskiy.
Vasilevskiy boasts a 2.31 GAA and .916 SV%, good for the 5th-best goals against in the league. His presence alone keeps Tampa relevant in every game because the man is a brick wall. Offensively, they sit 9th in goals and 10th in assists. Not elite, but consistent to say the least.
Nikita Kucherov leads the charge with 36 points, and Brandon Hagel adds 17 goals of his own. Jake Guentzel and Darren Raddysh are also producing, which gives this team a little bit of depth.
Their special teams are a mixed bag. Tampa has the best PK unit in the NHL at 86.5%, but its power play is 25th at just 16.3%. That’s surprisingly low for a team with this much firepower.
They’re not dominating as they have over the last few seasons, but they’re dangerous nonetheless. If you believe in goaltending come playoff time, Tampa is worth keeping an eye on, and at +1000, that’s not a bad buy.
Edmonton is a weird team right now. They score a lot — they’re 6th in total goals, and their power play is lethal, ranking 3rd at 31.6%. But defensively, they’re a total mess.
The Oilers rank 29th in GAA and 21st in PK%. Stuart Skinner has a brutal .887 SV% and a 2.91 GAA. Backup Calvin Pickard is even worse, and that’s not going to cut it in the postseason, but they know that.
Connor McDavid is doing Connor McDavid things with 44 points, including 28 assists, Leon Draisaitl has chipped in 17 goals, and Evan Bouchard is playing some of his best hockey. Offensively, they can hang with anyone, but we all know that’s just half of the equation in hockey.
But the defense is holding them back. At +1100, you’re betting on their offense catching fire and outscoring their defensive problems. That’s possible, but not a high-percentage strategy we’d take to the bank.
Vegas is sitting in the middle of the pack, almost across the board, but they’re keeping pace in the Pacific, which is probably why the bookmakers are liking them. They're 15th in goals, 12th in goals against, 12th in assists, and 21st in shooting percentage. That’s a lot of average for a team that is 6th in odds.
Goaltending is stable with Akira Schmid carrying the load as he has a 2.35 GAA and .903 SV%, plus 2 shutouts. The defense in front of him is helping, but not exactly dominating.
Jack Eichel is the engine on offense with 38 points and 26 assists, and Tomas Hertl leads in goals with 13, but no one else is really pulling away.
Their special teams are slightly above average. Vegas ranks 8th in power play at 23.9% and 14th in penalty kill at 80.8%, which is nothing flashy, just efficient.
At +1100, Vegas looks like a playoff team — but they don’t have the elite stats or dominant star power to tell us that they’re ready to win it all this year.
Now here’s the sleeper to keep your eye on.
Dallas has been quietly excellent. They rank 3rd in goals with a 3.42 GPG, 2nd in assists, 1st in shooting percentage at 13.3%, and 6th in goals against. That’s an elite balance for any team looking to make a run for the Stanley Cup.
Casey DeSmith has stepped up big time in net with a 2.23 GAA and .920 SV%. Jake Oettinger is a decent backup with a 2.49 GAA and .909 SV%. Having two goalies you can trust is a rare luxury in this league, just ask the Oilers.
Offensively, Dallas is deep. Mikko Rantanen leads with 42 points, followed by Jason Robertson and Wyatt Johnston. They’re getting production up and down the lineup.
Their special teams are top-notch as well. They have the 2nd-best power play at 32.3% and 7th on the penalty kill. This team checks all the boxes, and they’re doing it without leading the headlines like the Avs.
At +1400, they offer some serious value. Don’t be surprised if they’re still playing in June.
If you’re going off numbers, Colorado is the obvious choice, and it’s not even close. They have the best offense and defense and have a deep lineup. Goaltending is holding up as well. At +400, it’s the shortest price for a reason.
But if you’re looking for value, Dallas stands out from the rest of the crowd. Their stats are on par with Colorado, and in some areas even better. Their goaltending is playoff-ready, and they have the scoring depth to win low-scoring or high-scoring games. At +1400, that’s the strongest value on the board.
Tampa Bay and Edmonton offer upside if you trust their stars, but they come with some real flaws that just cannot be overlooked. Florida and Carolina are overrated based on how they’re actually playing, and Vegas is simply too average.
And with half the season left, we’ll see if the numbers hold or if someone catches fire late. But right now, the Stanley Cup looks like it’s going through the Central Division.