The Florida Panthers are just a single win away from heading back to the Stanley Cup Final as they’re holding a 3-1 series lead over the Carolina Hurricanes heading into Game 5 tonight in Raleigh.
Can the Hurricanes claw their way back into this fight? It’s a tall order, but the team is legit.
This Eastern Conference Finals matchup has been all about Florida’s dominance — at least until Game 4.
The Panthers outscored Carolina 16-4 through the first 3 games of the series, winning 5-2, 5-0, and 6-2. Sam Reinhart, Aleksander Barkov, and Matthew Tkachuk have led the charge, to nobody’s surprise, helping the Panthers look nearly unstoppable through most of the postseason.
But just when it looked like a sweep was on the way, Carolina responded in a big way. With their season on the line, the Hurricanes blanked Florida 3-0 in Game 4. It was a total team effort and they needed to get that out there. Logan Stankoven scored the game-winner, while Sebastian Aho and Jordan Staal added empty-netters in the final minutes to seal the deal. Carolina controlled the tempo, outshooting the Panthers, winning 57% of faceoffs, and killing off all 4 Florida power plays. It makes you wonder, where were these Canes in the first 3 games?
Still, despite the blowout, the overall numbers favor the Panthers in this series. Florida is 7-3 in their last 10, averaging 3.8 GF/G and allowing just 1.7 per game. They’ve also posted the 4th-highest goal-per-game mark in the postseason at 3.81. A good reason for this is that their physical style has been hard to handle — just ask the Hurricanes, who’ve been on the wrong end of some lopsided scorelines.
Carolina is now 6-4 in their last 10 and averaging just 2.7 GF/G. We didn’t see that coming from this team. Their strength at home, where they had a 36-11-1 regular season record, gives them hope for tonight, but the climb back into this series remains steep. They’ve already lost 2 on their home ice, so we don’t see it being too much of an advantage.
Florida enters as a slight favorite for Game 5, listed at -125 on the moneyline. Carolina is priced at +105 as the underdog even though they’re at home. With how this series is going so far, we’re not surprised. The over/under for total goals is set at 5.5. On the puck line, the Panthers -1.5 is getting +200 odds, while the Hurricanes +1.5 is at -245.
Those numbers mean that the bookmakers still respect Carolina’s home ice and desperation, but Florida’s consistent offensive production and deeper playoff experience are tipping the odds in their favor. Apparently, the oddsmakers think the ECF ends tonight.
Let’s start with what makes Florida so dangerous because, well, they are.
Reinhart leads all scorers in the series with 81 total points this season, including 39 goals. Barkov has chipped in as well with his 51 assists and continues to be one of the smartest two-way centers in the game. In this series, they’ve been magnets for the puck in the offensive zone and it’s easy to see why.
On the other end of the ice, Carolina’s scoring hasn’t kept pace and they’re not looking like their normal selves. Aho leads their team with 74 points on the season, but their power play unit has struggled with just 3 goals on 26 chances this postseason. Their shooting percentage this postseason sits at 9.4%, while Florida’s is a respectable 14% — a massive difference in a series where every scoring chance matters.
Defensively, Florida has been solid. They’ve held opponents to 2 or less goals in 7 of their last 10 games. And though Carolina won Game 4, it’s worth noting that 2 of their 3 goals came on empty nets which doesn’t help the Cane’s storyline. Florida’s goaltending and shot suppression remain among the league’s best, and they lead the playoffs in PIM for a reason — they’re aggressive and physical, though slightly undisciplined, but it’s paying off.
Carolina does have the tools to extend the series again. They were better in Game 4 in nearly every metric — hits, blocked shots, faceoffs, you name it. But they also gave the puck away 17 times. Against a team like Florida, that can’t continue. And despite their strong effort, they still only managed one goal at even strength. They’ll need to be even better than that if they want to keep their head above water in this series.
The Panthers have shown they can win ugly or light up the scoreboard. Unless Carolina finds another level of offense beyond just the empty-net insurance, it’s tough to see them flipping this series around and we don’t think it happens tonight.
BettorsInsider's Prediction: Panthers 4, Hurricanes 3
Best Bet: Florida Panthers moneyline at -125
This one should be tighter than the earlier blowouts given the non-tangibles, but Florida’s offensive depth and finishing advantage are too much to ignore. We love the +200 on the puck line, but given how close this game will be, we're going to take the easier money.
Barring another shutdown performance from Carolina, we expect the Panthers to wrap this series up and solidify their spot (again) in the NHL Stanley Cup Finals.