The Edmonton Oilers have a chance to punch their ticket to the Western Conference Final tonight as they’re holding a dominating 3-1 series lead over the Vegas Golden Knights heading into Game 5. But with the action shifting back to Vegas, the Golden Knights will be in full desperation mode trying to keep their Stanley Cup hopes alive.
If we’ve learned anything in this series, it’s that momentum shifts fast and we’re confident that the Golden Knights aren’t going to go down without a fight.
Game 5 will be played at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas tonight. The Oilers grabbed a commanding series lead thanks to a complete performance in Game 4 by absolutely blanking the Golden Knights 3-0 on home ice.
Vegas now faces elimination on their own turf, where they’ve typically been strong in postseason play despite losing the first 2 games of the series at home.
Apparently, the bookmakers are seeing this as well as the Golden Knights are slight favorites at -130 due to their home-ice advantage, but Edmonton's offensive firepower and recent form make this a toss-up on the moneyline as they’re slated at +110.
The puck line at 6.5 goals with the over favored at -125 tells us that this might be a big offensive performance by both teams. So far, 2 of the games have gone over this but now more is on the line for both.
The Oilers have put together their best stretch of hockey at the right time.
After taking Games 1 and 2 — one of them in OT — they stumbled in Game 3 before roaring back with a statement win in Game 4. That shutout wasn’t just about the 3 goals they scored, it was about Stuart Skinner turning in his best game of the playoffs. He stopped all 23 shots and controlled rebounds with confidence. But that shot number stands out as well because it shows that even the blue line was doing a big part in keeping points off of the board.
While Skinner’s overall numbers this postseason don’t jump off the page with his 2.81 GAA and .896 SV%, he was sharp when it mattered most. His Game 4 bounce-back could be a turning point for the Oilers in the series. A statement like that goes a long way in the confidence of a netminder. Compare that to Adin Hill, whose 2.47 GAA and .906 SV% have kept Vegas close, but the defensive structure in front of him has been somewhat flat under Edmonton’s relentless attack.
Leon Draisaitl continues to be a playoff machine, as expected. He leads all scorers with 106 points and 52 goals this season and already has 15 points with 5 goals in the postseason. Not one to slow down, he’s been lethal on the power play and at even strength. Connor McDavid isn’t far behind him in the regular season, racking up 74 assists while doing everything from zone entries to playmaking on the rush. So far in the playoffs, he has 17 points which is 2nd best in the postseason just behind Mikko Rantanen. Then you take those 2 stars and it’s easy to see why the Oilers’ power play, running at 27.3%, has been their lifeline all year.
Vegas is struggling to find consistent offense. Jack Eichel has been solid with 10 points in the playoffs, of course, but the supporting cast has faded a bit. Pavel Dorofeyev, while productive, hasn’t received enough help from the bottom 6. The Golden Knights are averaging 2.80 goals per game in the playoffs, well behind Edmonton’s 4.20 — a number that leads the league.
Game 4’s stat line was telling. Vegas got just 23 shots on the net and looked flat despite being in a must-win situation. They’ll need to find ways to control the puck and develop high-danger shots on the goal if they want to push this series to Game 6. Edmonton, meanwhile, controlled faceoffs at a 59.3% win rate and capitalized on mistakes. The Oilers are getting scoring from all lines and timely goals from guys like Evander Kane and Adam Henrique, who combined for 3 points last game.
The Oilers, despite having 2 of the best NHL players on the ice, are somehow getting the job done with their depth as well.
If you're looking for a strong player prop to back, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Over 0.5 Points should be at the top of your list and when you see what he’s been doing, it’s easy to see why.
He’s recorded at least one point in 7 of the last 8 games. Basically, he’s proving he’s more than just a secondary option. With McDavid and Draisaitl commanding so much attention, Nugent-Hopkins is thriving in quieter matchups and should have no problem getting at least one point tonight.
He’s posted 8 points in his last 8 playoff games, including a 2-assist night in the OT win in Game 2. Even when he doesn't light up the scoreboard, he logs some serious ice time on the power play and is heavily involved in the transition game.
Given his role and current streak, this prop offers strong value even if it’s sitting at -130.
The Oilers are riding high after a big shutout win, but Vegas isn’t going down quietly.
Backed by their home crowd and playoff experience, we expect a gritty, high-intensity effort from the Golden Knights. This is the kind of spot where they’ve thrived in the past and we don’t think tonight will be the end of this series. Their physical edge, coupled with a better performance from the blue line and Adin Hill, gives them a legitimate shot to extend the series to Game 6 and possibly a Game 7.
Since we only play one game at a time, we’re backing the Golden Knights to pull out the win and force a Game 6. They’ve got too much pride, experience, and talent to fold on home ice.
BettorsInsider's Prediction: Golden Knights 4, Oilers 2
Best Bet: Golden Knights moneyline at -130
The moneyline is the best bet here, but if you’re feeling frisky and think the Knights can get an empty netter or more, then the -1.5 puck line at +185 might be a good choice. Nonetheless, the Oilers are still a solid team so we’re going to stick with the moneyline as a safer bet.