The Carolina Hurricanes and Washington Capitals meet for what we think will be a gritty, tactical Game 1 in the 2nd round of the NHL playoffs tonight in D.C. This is a matchup of 2 teams that know each other inside out, making it a battle more about execution than surprises.
Both teams took care of business in the 1st round in 5 games, so they both have plenty of rest. Carolina knocked off New Jersey, and Washington eliminated Montreal. Now, after nearly a week of rest, these rivals square off with a trip to the Eastern Conference Final on the line. It’s going to be a tight game, but only one team can come out with the win.
Hurricanes are -125 favorites on the moneyline and +205 to cover the -1.5 puck line; total over 5.5 is also -125.
Capitals are +105 underdogs on the moneyline and -250 to cover the +1.5 puck line; total under 5.5 is +105.
This is not your average playoff opener.
These clubs last met in the playoffs in 2019, when Carolina won in 7 games. Now, they come into Game 1 with different strengths but very similar grit. Both rely heavily on structure and have goalies capable of stealing games, but their paths to finding the back of the net couldn't be more different.
The Hurricanes attack the net in waves. They average 3.8 goals per game this postseason and lead all playoff teams in total shots with 183 through 5 games. Their power play unit has finally come to life, scoring at a dominant 31.6%. But the real difference-maker? Their PK unit, which was a perfect 15-for-15 in the 1st round. Not a single power play goal allowed and that’s absolutely insane. Though, the Capitals are a much different team than the Devils.
Sebastian Aho who racked up 8 points vs. New Jersey and Seth Jarvis who had 2 power play goals continue to lead the charge offensively, but the Hurricanes have also been boosted by a rested defense and a strong goaltending rotation. Pyotr Kochetkov and Frederik Andersen have shared the load and combined for a .898 SV%, which isn’t superb, but Carolina’s defensive system covers a lot of ground with hits and blocks.
Washington, on the other hand, is led by Dylan Strome who had 9 points in the 1st round, and Alex Ovechkin, who netted 44 goals during the regular season. The Capitals are a bit more selective with their shots, preferring to score off the rush or capitalize on their opponent’s mistakes. Their power play was average in the 1st round, but their penalty kill was shaky. They allowed 5 goals on 15 chances, ranking near the bottom among playoff teams at 66.7%. That’s an area they’ll have to work on if they’re going to go deeper into the playoffs.
Goaltending may be the X-factor not just for this game, but the entire series. Logan Thompson has been nothing less than excellent as he’s posting a .910 SV% and a 2.49 GAA through 6 starts. If he stays sharp, and we don’t see why he wouldn’t, Washington can hang with Carolina's offensive pressure. But if the Caps get stuck chasing the puck, things can unravel quickly.
Both coaches have said it — there are no secrets coming into tonight’s game.
Carolina’s Rod Brind'Amour and Washington’s Spencer Carbery agree these teams know each other’s systems inside and out. After all, they played each other 4 times during the regular season and each team took 2 games. It’ll come down to which side sticks to their structure better and avoids mistakes in the neutral zone.
Carolina’s real edge lies in their special teams. They not only killed every penalty in the 1st round, which is incredible by itself but also scored a shorthanded goal and looked dangerous while doing it. On the other end of the ice, Washington’s penalty kill looked fairly vulnerable against a much less threatening Montreal power play unit. If they give Carolina too many chances with the man advantage, it could spiral quickly. They’re going to have to maintain discipline and keep the PIM at a minimum.
Even 5-on-5, Carolina holds a bit of an edge. Their shot volume forces netminders to stay locked in for 60 minutes, and with their blue line activating regularly — led by Brent Burns and Jaccob Slavin — they can wear down teams physically and mentally.
Washington of course does have star power, and Ovechkin can still tilt the ice, especially on the power play. But they’ll need a near-perfect game from Thompson in between the pipes and some big contributions from their 2nd and 3rd lines to take Game 1. The Caps might not have the best depth, but they’ve shown they can get the job done from time to time.
The prop to add to your bet slip for Game 1 is Sebastian Aho to record over 0.5 assists at +120.
Aho leads Carolina with 45 assists during the regular season and had 5 helpers in 5 games against New Jersey. In fact, he’s had an assist in the last 4 games alone. He plays on both the 1st line and the top power play unit, giving him plenty of TOI and opportunities to set up scorers like Jarvis and Teuvo Teravainen.
What’s even more important is that he thrives in structured games like this. Washington’s tendency to collapse in the low slot creates room on the outside for playmakers, and Aho is one of the best at finding soft spots in coverage. If Carolina’s power play continues to click, which we think they will, he’s got a high chance of picking up at least one assist in tonight’s showdown.
His consistency as a distributor and the way this game shapes up make this a sharp play for value.
This one looks like it will be tight early, but Carolina's depth and special teams should take over and get the job done. Washington undoubtedly has the talent, but their PK issues and the Hurricanes’ pace may be too much to overcome in the opener.
BettorsInsider’s Prediction: Hurricanes 4, Capitals 2
Best Bet: Carolina Hurricanes moneyline at -125
Carolina has just been better at controlling games and making teams play their style and we expect they’ll continue that trend into tonight. The odds could be better, but at -125, you’re still getting a decent play.
No matter how this game unfolds, there's still plenty of NHL action to follow for the rest of this series. Here's the full breakdown of the Hurricanes vs Capitals playoff series.
Game 1 (5/6) – Hurricanes vs Capitals – ESPN
Game 2 (5/8) – Hurricanes vs Capitals – ESPN
Game 3 (5/10) – Capitals vs Hurricanes – TNT/truTV/Max
Game 4 (5/12) – Capitals vs Hurricanes – TNT/truTV/Max
Game 5 (5/14) – Hurricanes vs Capitals – TNT/truTV/Max
Game 6 (5/16) – Capitals vs Hurricanes – TBD
Game 7 (5/18) – Hurricanes vs Capitals – ESPN