The Vegas Golden Knights are one win away from moving on to the 2nd round of the NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs, but standing in their path is a desperate Minnesota Wild team returning to a place they’ve consistently thrived — Xcel Energy Center.
With the puck dropping tonight in St. Paul there’s plenty of time to lock in your bets and if recent history at home means anything, this series is far from over.
Game 6 shifts back to Minnesota, where the Wild have covered the puck line in 7 straight home games. This includes matchups against other playoff teams that are in better form than Vegas. The Knights may have the edge in the series as it’s 3-2, but they’re far from comfortable. They’ve struggled as a road favorite, losing 7 of their last 8 in that spot against teams on a losing streak. Simply put, the Wild thrive in situations like this and the Golden Knights aren’t in a position to stop them.
Bookmakers favor Vegas on the moneyline at -166, but there’s some seriously strong betting support behind Minnesota as a live underdog. The puck line leans Wild +1.5 at -185, and the total is set at 5.5 goals — which is low, but fitting for a series that’s tightened up since Game 2. We think the bookmakers are missing the mark on this one.
This first-round series has been an absolute slugfest.
Vegas took Game 1, then dropped back-to-back contests before evening the series in Game 4 with a narrow 4-3 win in overtime. Game 5 was a thriller when Vegas outshot Minnesota 32-22, dominated the faceoff circle, and escaped in overtime yet again thanks to a clutch goal from Brett Howden. Jack Eichel who had 2 assists and Mark Stone who had 1 goal were critical down the stretch, but the game could’ve gone either way.
Sure, they’re down in the series but to be honest, the Wild held their own. Despite fewer chances, they blocked 25 shots and played physically, landing more hits than Vegas. Their special teams also came through with a power play goal, while Vegas went 0-for-3 with the man advantage. That’s now 3 straight games without a power play point for the Knights, a glaring weakness that could hurt them in a tight game which this game is shaping up to be.
Offensively, Matt Boldy remains the go-to for Minnesota. He leads the team with 73 points and 27 goals on the season, and his 271 shots on goal showed he's not afraid to let it rip from the slot. Pavel Dorofeyev leads Vegas in goals with 35, but the engine still runs through Eichel, who has an impressive 66 assists on the year.
The Wild are actually outscoring Vegas this postseason. They’re averaging 3.4 goals per game compared to Vegas’ 3.0. That’s surprising, especially considering Vegas has taken more shots overall. But Minnesota’s finishing has simply been better, with a postseason shooting percentage of 13.9% to Vegas’ 8.9%.
In the crease, it’s been a mixed bag for both sides. Filip Gustavsson has held his own in net for Minnesota with a .914 SV%. Compare that to Vegas’ goalie rotation — Adin Hill with a .906 SV% and Ilya Samsonov at .891. Of course, Hill remains their go-to, but he’s been average in high-pressure moments. With Minnesota generating better shot quality, Gustavsson may be the better bet in net but we won’t know until later today who will be between the pipes.
And let’s not ignore the trends. The under has hit in each of Vegas’ last 6 games following an overtime matchup. Both teams looked exhausted by the 3rd period in Game 5, and this feels like another game where a single mistake could decide the outcome of this heavy Western matchup.
This one has a Game 7 matchup written all over it.
The Wild are back on their home ice, where they’ve been rock-solid against the puck line and emotionally fueled by the crowd. Vegas has been inconsistent as a road favorite and hasn’t shown enough on their special team units to feel confident backing them in this spot.
We Expect Minnesota to keep it tight, lean on Boldy, and make just enough plays to force a deciding Game 7. The home-ice trend is real, and the Wild should ride it one more time.
BettorsInsider’s Prediction: Wild 3, Golden Knights 2
Best Bet: Minnesota Wild moneyline at +140
The Knights are good, but the Wild’s energy at home and ability to capitalize on Vegas' road struggles give them the edge in a must-win spot. On top of that, we love the fact that you can get this bet at +140. We’re sure that the Knights want to close out this series, but tonight’s not the night that it’ll happen. Make a bet on the Wild for the moneyline and get ready for a Game 7.