The Florida Panthers are heading into Game 5 with a commanding 3-1 series lead over the Tampa Bay Lightning, and they’ve got a serious shot to close it out on the road at Amalie Arena, but they have had a little setback. After a physical and emotional win in Game 4, the Panthers will be without a key defenseman, yet they still hold the upper hand as they look to eliminate their in-state rival in the Battle of Florida.
Wednesday night in Tampa could mark the end of this hard-fought first-round series of the NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs.
Florida has outplayed Tampa in most phases, winning Games 1, 2, and 4 with a balanced mix of disciplined defense, strong goaltending, and timely scoring. Game 3 was the only blemish on their post-season record, where Tampa came alive in front of their home crowd. Tonight they’re the slight underdogs at -108 compared to the Lightning at -112. That’s as close as you can get when it comes to NHL odds.
But the biggest storyline going into tonight’s game is the suspension of Aaron Ekblad. The Panthers defenseman was handed a 2-game ban for an elbow to Brandon Hagel in Game 4 — a hit that left Hagel injured and sparked debate across social media. That’s because Ekblad not only escaped penalty in the moment but scored a game-tying goal in the 3rd.
Now, his absence on the ice creates a big gap in Florida’s top defensive pairing at a critical time of the series. He might not have received the 2 minute penalty, but the entire team will feel the 2 game suspension.
Still, the Panthers have been the more complete team aside from Ekblad. They’ve held Tampa to just 5 goals combined in their 3 wins. They’ve gotten contributions up and down the lineup, and goalie Sergei Bobrovsky has been absolutely locked in. He’s posting a .902 SV% and making key stops under pressure.
Looking at the regular season, Tampa Bay came in with some slightly better offensive numbers, but we all know that playoffs are a different type of hockey.
They averaged 3.56 goals per game which was good for 4th in the league, compared to Florida’s 3.00. Nikita Kucherov led the charge with a stellar 121 points, and Brayden Point added 42 goals. On paper, this offense should be lighting it up — but that hasn’t happened yet in the playoffs.
In the postseason, Tampa Bay has dropped to just 2.2 goals per game — dead last among the remaining playoff teams. Florida, meanwhile, is averaging 3.3 and ranks among the top half of the running.
Sam Reinhart continues to lead the way with 39 goals this season and has looked dangerous in this series. Barkov has chipped in with playmaking and defensive coverage, giving Florida a strong two-way presence down the middle and the upper slot.
Defensively, the Panthers have clamped down hard. They’re giving up just 2.25 goals per game in the playoffs good for 2nd-best among playoff teams — and Bobrovsky’s .902 SV% and 2.01 GAA shows he’s been steady, if not spectacular. Sure, Ekblad’s suspension hurts, but Florida has the depth to weather it, especially with Gustav Forsling and Brandon Montour capable of logging more TOI.
Tampa’s defense has been fairly shaky by comparison. They’ve allowed 2.75 GA/A and their PK unit has been struggling in the postseason, sitting at a dismal 76.9%. That’s a bad matchup against Florida’s power play, which, while it’s definitely not elite, has found enough success to be dangerous.
There’s a lot working in Florida’s favor, even without Ekblad on the blue line. They’ve found the right formula to contain Tampa’s stars — especially at even strength. They’ve outscored the Lightning 12-5 in their 3 wins and have shown they can play with a lead or come from behind. They have everything they need to get it done and move on.
On top of that, the pressure is all on Tampa Bay now. They’re back at home, facing elimination, and need a big response. But even their Game 3 win came with some unsustainable metrics. They converted on nearly every high-danger chance and got strong goaltending, something that hasn’t been consistent for them this season. Can they get that same type of game from Andrei Vasilevskiy? There’s a chance, but we wouldn’t count on it. He was much better during the regular season.
Florida doesn’t need to change much despite the change in their lineup. They’ve frustrated Kucherov and Point, won the physical battles, and their top players have come through when it matters. The momentum is to their back. They’ve also kept their cool better than Tampa — staying out of the penalty box and making smart plays in high-leverage moments. These are all critical areas when it comes to winning a playoff series.
The Panthers are simply the better team in this series and that’s undeniable. And unless Andrei Vasilevskiy turns in a lights-out performance, it’s hard to see the Lightning forcing a Game 6.
BettorsInsider’s Prediction: Panthers 3, Lightning 2
Best Bet: Florida Panthers moneyline at -108
The Panthers have proven they can win on the road and play through adversity. Will it hurt without a key defenseman? Sure, but with the series momentum on their side and better goaltending, backing Florida to finish things off is the strongest play.
If you’re looking for a little bit of plus-money action on this Panthers vs Lightning game, then you might want to check out a prop bet. One of the best ones we’ve seen is Aleksander Barkov to get at least 1 assist. He’s notched at least 1 helper in 4 of his last 5 games and tonight he’ll have to step up even more. At +105, this Tampa Bay Lightning prop is a no-brainer.