The Colorado Avalanche and Dallas Stars are locked in a super tight battle in the first round of the NHL playoffs, with the series tied 2-2 heading into a massive Game 5 showdown.
This series has had a bit of everything — blowouts, tight grinders, and even some overtime drama — and now the pressure is at an all-time high with the winner of Game 5 often taking control of a series.
Who’s going to win tonight’s game and who’s going to be in a must-win situation for Game 6? We’ve got a good idea of how tonight’s matchup will unfold with the best Avalanche vs Stars prediction and best bet.
Spread/Total: Avalanche -1.5 (+180), Stars +1.5 (-218), Over 6.5 (+114), Under 6.5 (-135)
Moneyline: Avalanche (-142), Stars (+120)
The Avalanche made a big statement in Game 4, blanking the Stars 4-0 with a gem of a shutout to even the series. Colorado came out flying and never let Dallas breathe. They absolutely dominated puck possession and created high-danger chances at will. It was a bounce-back performance after a frustrating Game 3 where the Avs went neck and neck the entire game but still lost 2-1.
On the other side of the ice, Dallas knows they missed a big opportunity and have to clean up some things. After stealing Game 3 behind solid defense and opportunistic scoring, they had a chance to take a 3-1 series stranglehold but simply couldn't keep up with Colorado’s speed and aggression from the first puck drop.
Sure, home ice gives Dallas some comfort, but momentum is swinging in Colorado's favor.
The Avalanche finished the regular season 49-29-4, while Dallas put together a slightly stronger record at 50-26-6. But regular season records don’t mean much when two heavyweights start trading blows like this in the midst of the NHL playoffs. Right now, it's about who's peaking at the right time and it seems both teams are taking turns in that slot.
Offensively, Nathan MacKinnon is simply a force that Dallas has struggled to contain. MacKinnon racked up 116 points during the season with 32 goals and 84 assists and he hasn’t slowed down for the playoffs, either as he’s put up 5 points in 4 games. His ability to drive play and create offense out of nothing makes him the most dangerous player on the ice every time he hops over the boards.
Dallas leans heavily on Matt Duchene and Jason Robertson. Duchene leads the Stars with 82 points on the season but hasn’t put up a single point in the postseason. Robertson has found the back of the net 35 times this season but hasn’t touched the ice yet in the postseason. He should be laced up and ready to go any day now. The big problem with this is Dallas hasn’t gotten much consistent secondary scoring. That’s a problem when trying to match Colorado's depth.
The team stats paint a clear picture — Colorado averages 3.33 goals per game, almost identical to Dallas’ 3.35, but the Avs generate slightly more shots on goal. On the blue line, Dallas has a slight edge, allowing 2.71 goals against compared to Colorado's 2.82. Special teams are close as well, with Colorado converting on the power play at a 24.8% clip compared to Dallas' 22%. Dallas holds a slight PK advantage, operating at 82%, while Colorado sits at 79.8%.
Looking at the postseason numbers, though, the gap widens. Colorado has averaged 3.25 goals per game during the playoffs, while Dallas is struggling with just 1.75 goals per game. That’s a massive difference and that needs to change if they plan on going any deeper into the playoffs. This is especially true considering playoff hockey is tighter and goals are harder to come by. The Stars' offensive issues are real, and if they can't find more ways to beat Colorado’s defense, they’re in trouble.
Game 3 showed Dallas's blueprint — clog up the slot, block shots, and capitalize on rare chances. They blocked 22 shots that game and played a grinding, low-event style. But when Colorado plays their fast, attacking game like they did in Games 1 and 4, Dallas hasn't had much of an answer.
Another factor we love heading into Game 5 is Colorado's bounce-back ability. They have responded well after each loss this series, and now after a dominant Game 4, they come into Game 5 with a full head of steam. We haven’t seen this ability from Dallas, and as always, confidence matters, especially when you're chasing a championship.
The Stars' goaltending led by Jake Oettinger and defense have kept them alive, but eventually, you need goals to win playoff games. If Tyler Seguin and Duchene don’t get more help from the rest of the lineup, the Avalanche are going to continue to control the pace and strut their way to round 2 of the NHL playoffs.
This series has been intense and easily one of the best ones of the playoffs. However, Colorado has shown a higher ceiling. When they dictate play, as they usually do, Dallas can’t keep up. With MacKinnon playing like a true MVP candidate and the team generating chances at will, the Avalanche looks like the better bet going into Game 5.
Dallas will undoubtedly be desperate and will have the crowd behind them, but desperation only goes so far when your offense is sputtering. We have no doubt Oettinger will do his part, but it’s the top 6 we’re worried about. The Avalanche’s depth, special teams, and top-end talent give them the edge in what should be another physical, and emotional battle.
The pick for tonight’s game is Colorado to take Game 5 and put themselves one win away from moving on. We expect MacKinnon to lead the charge again with another monster game, perhaps another goal ontop of his 4 already, and for Colorado's aggressive style to eventually break through Dallas’ defensive shell.
BettorsInsider’s Prediction: Avalanche 4, Stars 2
Best Bet: Colorado Avalanche moneyline to win Game 5 at -142
Want a bit more value for your bet tonight? You’ll want to jump on a prop bet to get a little more bang for your buck. The best bet for a prop tonight is for Nathan MacKinnon to get an anytime goal. He’s had at least one goal in each of his last 4 road games and already has 4 goals in 4 games during this series. He’s locked in and not slowing down. When he’s matched up with Cale Makar, who himself has at least one assist in each of the Avs's last 6 playoff games as road favorites, his chances simply skyrocket.
At +125 to get a goal against the struggling Stars, this is a bet you can take to the bank.