The Montreal Canadiens are clinging to the #2 wild card seed in the East as they get set to host the lowly Chicago Blackhawks tonight at the Bell Centre.
While this might not be a massive matchup between 2 powerhouse teams, this one has meaning for only one team in the standings, but Chicago already showed it can ruin Montreal’s plans by taking the 1st meeting between the 2 earlier this season.
The real question now is whether the Canadiens can return the favor on home ice, where they’ve been finding their groove and doing everything they can to squeak into the playoff picture. There are 2 games left, this is one of the biggest of the season for the Habs.
Montreal enters the matchup on an undoubtedly strong late-season push. They’ve won 3 of their last 5 games with their only stumbles being a 1-0 OT loss to Toronto, where they still managed to snag a point, and a 5-2 loss to Ottawa.
Chicago, meanwhile, continues to struggle near the basement of the NHL standings. In fact, the only team with a worse record is the San Jose Sharks. The Blackhawks have dropped 3 of their last 5 and sit at the bottom of the Central Division with only 57 points.
Oddsmakers have the Canadiens listed as clear favorites at -290 on the moneyline, and that makes sense given how the teams are trending. The Blackhawks are out of the playoff picture and playing out the string. Montreal, on the other hand, is fighting for every point with the postseason on the line. They have both momentum and grit on their side for tonight’s game.
The Canadiens are finally stringing wins together, and it’s not just coming from their stars like Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield. Sure, they continue to lead the way — Suzuki with 87 points, Caufield with 30 goals — but the defense and goaltending have been the real stories lately.
In their last 4 wins, Montreal has allowed just 7 goals total. That’s a big shift from earlier in the year when goaltending and defensive lapses regularly cost them games that unquestionably put them in this spot struggling for a playoff seed.
Samuel Montembeault has taken control of the crease, now with 30 wins in the season. His numbers — a 2.83 GAA and .901 SV% — don’t jump off the page, but they’ve been good enough to get the job done. This is especially true with the improved team play in front of him.
Montreal’s power play has been middle of the pack, converting at 20.3%, but they’ve been drawing more PIM as of late, which could be key against a Blackhawks team that struggles to kill them off. On the other end, Montreal’s PK unit has been fairly solid at 81.4%, and that's important in tight, low-scoring games which we think tonight’s will be.
The Canadiens also seem to be learning how to close games by keeping the pressure up. They’ve won back-to-back one-goal games over Nashville and Philly — both of which needed disciplined, late-game execution.
Give Chicago credit — they’re not mailing it in.
Despite being buried in the standings, they’ve played some tough games lately. A shootout loss to the dominant Jets and a narrow loss to the surging Capitals show they’re still fighting. But this is still a team with some serious flaws, particularly on the defensive end.
The Blackhawks allow a staggering 3.58 goals per game, the 2nd-worst mark in the NHL. Their PK is well below average, and their goaltending tandem of Spencer Knight and Arvid Söderblom hasn’t been enough to bail them out. Knight owns a .901 SV%, which matches Montembeault, but behind a far worse defense. Söderblom has a 3.19 GAA and sub-.900 SV%. These are far from the league's best.
As for the offense, it’s been Connor Bedard and not much else. The rookie has been electric with 63 points spanning 21 goals and 42 assists and often makes something out of nothing. Ryan Donato has chipped in a bit with 31 goals, but after that, the drop-off is steep. Chicago is averaging just 2.71 GF/G, and with how well Montreal is defending lately, it’s hard to see that improving for tonight’s game.
Probably the biggest issue for Chicago has been special teams. Their PP is near the bottom of the league, and they’ve allowed 6 short-handed goals — not something a rebuilding team can afford. Of course, this is welcomed news for the Canadiens.
Montreal let one slip in the first meeting of the season. However, that game was back in January when they were struggling and they’re already looking like a playoff team now.
The Canadiens are playing with urgency and structure. Plus, they’re getting timely saves and contributions from their top-6. More importantly, they’ve been excellent at home during this stretch.
Chicago, on the other hand, is simply outmatched. They’ve lost 46 games and simply don’t have the defensive depth to hold off a motivated Montreal group looking to wrap up their season on a good note. Even if Bedard creates a moment or two, it likely won’t be enough to keep the Canadiens from grabbing 2 crucial points.
Final Score Prediction: Canadiens 4, Blackhawks 2
Best Bet: Montreal on the puck line at -110
With Montreal’s recent form and Chicago’s inability to defend consistently, we just cannot justify taking the Habs at -190; however, that -1.5 puck line looks much better at -110. And for props, watch Cole Caufield’s goal total — he’s heating up at just the right time and could easily light the lamp again in this one. With 3 goals in his last 6 games, it wouldn’t surprise us if he gets another at +155.