The Dallas Stars and Winnipeg Jets square off tonight in a late-season matchup that could have some serious playoff-seeding implications as we’re down to the final 4 games of the season. The puck drops at 8 p.m. ET from American Airlines Center, with the game streaming on ESPN+, so there’s no reason for you to miss out on this bet, to help you out, we’ve got the best prediction and bet for tonight’s game.
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The Stars are sitting at -130 favorites, while the Jets are the +110 underdogs in what we think will be a high-tempo, closely contested game for the 2 points.
Both teams are some of the best in the Western Conference and come in with 50+ wins on the year, but they’ve taken different paths to get there.
The Stars have looked sharp recently. In their last 10, they’re 7-1-2 overall and 5-5 ATS. They’re playing with more offensive punch as well and they’re scoring 1.1 more goals per game than their season average over that 10-game stretch. That's a big deal when you’re playing the Jets and it’s this late in the season. This means the team is peaking at the right time.
4 of those 10 games went over the total and combined, their matchups have averaged a solid 5.9 goals, just slightly above the set total of 5.5 for tonight’s game. So this number is right on the edge, but there’s a bit of lean toward the over, and when you look at both of their offenses, it’s easy to see why.
The Jets are in a decent spot as well. They’ve gone 6-4-0 straight up over their last 10 games. But against the puck line, they’ve been a little shaky, covering just 4 of their last 10. Total-wise, their games have hit the over just 3 times, with a sharp decline in overall scoring. They’ve averaged just 5.5 goals per game over the last 10, compared to their season average of over 7.
That dip shows this team is playing tighter games, which we don’t think is necessarily bad — but it does mean they might not be firing on all cylinders offensively right now and they’ll need it against the surging Stars.
Of course, we have to acknowledge the fact that the Jets have won 2 of the 3 games between these teams already, but their last game was nearly a month ago. These are 2 different teams this time around so we're not going to consider those previous wins too much.
Dallas gets a ton of value out of Mikko Rantanen, who leads the team with 85 points and 53 assists. Though not all of those points were with the Stars this season, he’s unquestionably their go-to guy now that he’s settled in. He’s also supported by Matt Duchene and Jason Robertson in the top 6, so there’s quite a bit of depth in the zone. Defensively, Esa Lindell carries a team-best +36 rating, which is one of the top ratings in the entire NHL, helping anchor a blue line that’s solid in transition and physical in front of the net.
In the net, Jake Oettinger has been quite a stabilizing force. He’s 36-15-4 this year with a 2.4 GAA and a .912 SV%, ranking him in the league’s top 10 as well. That’s big in a game like this, especially with playoff pressure starting to build. We’re pretty sure he’ll get the start tonight with playoff seeding on the line.
Winnipeg’s not short on stars either. Kyle Connor is their main man with 92 points and 54 assists, doing it all for their top line. Of course, the Jets don’t have the depth the Stars do, but Connor gets plenty of ice time to make up for it. And then there’s Connor Hellebuyck, who’s having an elite season in net and is easily the top contender for the Vicenza Trophy. He’s rocking a 2.0 GAA and a dominant .924 SV%, which leads the entire NHL. At the rate he’s going, he’s one of the best netminders to play the game.
If there’s one guy on the ice who can completely flip a game, it’s Hellebuyck. But the question is — can the Jets score enough to back him up? Oettinger is no pushover, either.
This is a tight matchup with legitimate playoff intensity. But when you stack up form, scoring trends, and even home-ice advantage, the Stars look like the right side of this game. It’ll be tight, but they should pull it off.
They’re playing some of their best hockey at the right time. The offense is clicking, the blue line is getting the job done, and Oettinger gives them a strong enough goaltending base to handle a Jets team that hasn’t been as explosive as they can be lately.
Yes, Hellebuyck can steal a game — and he just might — but Dallas has more momentum right now and a more balanced attack that’s simply too hard to ignore. They’ve scored more, defended better lately, and are simply tougher to beat at home.
BettorsInsiders Prediction: Stars 4, Jets 3
Best Bet: Dallas Stars on the ML at -130
It’ll be a close game and we think the odds should be better than -130, but we’re taking the Dallas Stars moneyline (-130) as the best bet and we’re confident with this one.
We expect a fast-paced game with enough goals to hit the over bet and this game could possibly need some overtime to get it done, but Dallas finds a way.
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