The Edmonton Oilers are back on home ice tonight as they’re hosting a red-hot St. Louis Blues team at Rogers Place. This Western Conference showdown comes with some big-time playoff implications, and oddsmakers have the Oilers as slight favorites with a -145 moneyline, while the Blues come in as a slight +120 underdog. With the Puck drop set for 10 p.m. ET on TNT, there’s plenty of time to get your bets in on this matchup.
Looking at the numbers alone, oddsmakers are giving the Oilers some home-ice respect here and we get that; however, we think that the recent form tilts the momentum toward St. Louis.
The Blues are 9-1 in their last 10 and just coming off of a 12-game win streak. They’re catching fire at exactly the right time. Edmonton has been a little shakier, going 5-4-1 in that same stretch, and just 4-6 against the spread. Not terrible, but they’ve had better stretches this season.
The over/under is set at a lowly 5.5 goals, a number that both teams have flirted with recently. Edmonton’s last 10 games have averaged around 6.1 total goals, while the Blues are exactly at 5.5 per game. That tells us the line is very sharp, but the game script could lean toward a bit more offense.
The puckline leans slightly toward St. Louis at +1.5, which goes hand in hand with how competitive this one is expected to be. But the real story is in the margins and that’s where the money is to be made. While the Blues have thrived lately, much of their surge has come with some unsustainable scoring bursts — something to keep in mind when betting on this game.
Leon Draisaitl continues to carry the offensive load for Edmonton and he’s looking like a shoo-in for the Richard Rocket Award. He’s now up to 106 points in 71 games, including 54 goals, and he's been the most consistent threat in Edmonton's top-6.
On the other side of the ice, Robert Thomas has quietly put together a strong year for the Blues with 76 points. That might not seem like much compared to Draisaitl, but he’s the creative hub of their offense and the Blues have some depth.
In the crease, Stuart Skinner has been somewhat serviceable for Edmonton. His 2.9 GAA and .893 SV% don’t look that great compared to some others, but he's holding down the fort. Meanwhile, Jordan Binnington has been slightly better for the Blues and currently rocks a 2.7 GAA and .901 SV%, which ranks middle of the pack but has looked more consistent lately.
What we think is also worth watching is special teams. Edmonton’s power play remains one of the league’s deadliest and they’ve been in the top 10 for most of the season. To pile on top of that, the Blues have one of the worst PK units in the NHL with 73.8%. If this game gets whistle-happy, that’s a massive advantage for the Oilers.
But here’s the caveat — the Oilers have been scoring less than usual lately, averaging 0.8 fewer goals per game than their season average over their last 10. If the Blues can slow down Edmonton's big guns early, this one could tilt their way, but that’s still a tall order for St. Louis.
The Blues are playing with some serious confidence and winning games, but they’ve also benefited from some fortunate bounces and timely scoring. That’s just an immeasurable fact, but that’s also not something you can rely on every night, especially against a team like Edmonton that still packs a punch offensively — even in a mini-slump at the end of the season when they’re getting rest where they can.
This feels like a get-right spot for Edmonton, especially at home where they’ve been undoubtedly more aggressive and tighter defensively. They know they can’t afford to let points slip with the standings tightening up. They’re fighting for playoff positioning at this point.
BettorsInsider Prediction: Oilers 4, Blues 3
Best Bet: Oilers -145 moneyline
They’ve had a tougher schedule lately, but this is where they should regain momentum. The top line led by the dominant Draisaitl can exploit the Blues' below-average penalty kill, and if Skinner gives them even an average performance, that should be enough to edge out a high-scoring, one-goal win.
We think this game has overtime potential, so we’re sticking with the Oilers to handle business in regulation or beyond. We’re skipping on the 60-minute bets. St. Louis is due for a step back, and this feels like the spot where it happens.