The Winnipeg Jets are back home and showing as solid favorites as they get set to host the absolutely smoking hot St. Louis Blues tonight.
The Jets are sitting at -165 on the moneyline, while the Blues come in at +135 as the clear underdogs. With the puck drop set for 7:30 p.m. ET at Canada Life Centre, there’s no shortage of storylines heading into this one.
Oddsmakers are leaning Winnipeg’s way, and at a glance, we don’t think it’s that hard to see why. So far in the season, these 2 teams have faced each other 3 times and the Jets own the series 2-1.
The Jets own a strong 52-21-4 record, the best in the NHL, and Connor Hellebuyck is undoubtedly putting together a Vezina-caliber season. Their 43 wins with him in the net speaks volumes for his dominance. On the other side of the ice, the Blues are 43-28-7 and riding a 12-game heater. Yeah, they’re on fire.
But some deeper trends tell a more layered story.
Winnipeg has gone 6-4 in their last 10 games, which looks decent until you see the 3-7 mark ATS. That’s not the kind of cover rate that inspires confidence if you’re laying the puck line. They’re barely squeezing out these wins, but nonetheless, getting the 2 points. Also, the Jets are scoring 1.4 fewer goals per game than their season average lately.
Meanwhile, St. Louis hasn’t just been winning by the margins. They’ve been putting up some serious numbers. Their games are averaging 10.7 total goals during that streak, nearly 2.5 goals above their season average. That’s not just momentum — it’s fireworks. You don’t get onto a 12-game winning streak by accident.
Still, the total for this game is set pretty low at just 5.5, and both teams have hovered right around that line in recent outings. Winnipeg’s games have averaged 5.6 total goals, while the Blues sit at exactly 5.5. That doesn’t inspire much confidence for a shootout.
This game is going to come down to execution in the defensive zone and who can stay disciplined for a full 60 minutes of hockey. Winnipeg may be the better team on paper, but their defense hasn’t been quite as sharp lately. They rely pretty heavily on Hellebuyck between the pipes. Fortunately, he’s that good.
The Jets' top line still features Kyle Connor, who’s racked up 91 points on the season and continues to be one of the most consistent offensive forces in the NHL. While we can’t deny that he’s been excellent, this isn’t just his show — Winnipeg’s depth scoring will need to show up if they want to control the pace and they often do.
Connor Hellebuyck is arguably the best goalie in the NHL, and his .924 SV% backs it up. He’s going to need to be sharp though, because the Blues have been attacking early and often and finding ways to get to the back of the net.
Robert Thomas has led the charge for St. Louis with 75 points and a team-best 54 helpers. He’s the type of player who can tilt the ice when he’s on, and with Jordan Kyrou having a +23 rating and contributing at both ends, the Blues have multiple ways to pressure defenses. Players like Thomas and Kyrou won’t let the Jets off easy.
Jordan Binnington has been the X-factor, however.
He’s been fine this year — nothing more, nothing less. A 2.7 GAA and .901 SV% isn’t blowing anyone away, but he’s getting the job done. He’s found ways to win lately, and that counts. Still, if there’s one area that could tilt this matchup Winnipeg’s way, it’s goaltending. If Binnington falters, this one could turn quickly. You can bet he’ll come out with his A-game in tonight’s matchup.
Winnipeg is undoubtedly the better team overall despite the Blue's 12-game win streak. They’ve been more consistent over the full season, and with Hellebuyck between the pipes at home, the floor is high. But the Blues are rolling, and they’ve shown they can hang with just about anyone when they get going — and they’re going.
That said, win streaks end, and this feels like the spot where St. Louis cools off. They’re looking comfortable for a wild card spot, so this game isn’t an all-or-nothing type of game for them, either.
The Jets — without a question — have the edge in net, they’ve got home ice, and they’ve been one of the stingiest teams at limiting high-danger chances over the past month — even if the puck hasn’t always bounced their way recently.
BettorsInsider’s Prediction: Jets 4, Blues 2
Best Bet: Jets -165 on the moneyline
We’re not touching the puck line here because Winnipeg has had trouble covering, and St. Louis is too hot to assume a blowout. But a straight-up win for the Jets feels right, especially with Hellebuyck likely starting.
We definitely expect a tight game through 2 periods, but Winnipeg pulls away late to get the 2 points and end St. Louis’ streak.