The Vancouver Canucks head to UBS Arena tonight to take on the New York Islanders in what we are expecting to be a tight battle on the ice. Both teams are sitting on the edge of the playoff bubble, and this game could have serious implications for seeding down the final stretch of 10 games or so.
The Canucks bring a slightly better overall record, but the Islanders have been stronger lately and already own a win in the season series back in November.
Of course, on a Wednesday night, there’s not too much hockey as it’s only a 4 game slate, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t bets for you to make.
The Islanders are -125 on the moneyline, while the Canucks come in at nearly even odds at +105. That’s everything you need to know about how tight this game could be.
The over/under is set at 5.5, with juice slightly slightly favoring the under. On the puck line, New York is -1.5 at a solid +225, and Vancouver is +1.5 juiced to -275.
Goaltending is undoubtedly going to be a big piece of this matchup. Ilya Sorokin is expected to start for New York, and while his overall numbers aren’t that great with a 2.72 GAA and .907 SV%, they’re a bit better than what Vancouver is rolling with.
The Canucks have leaned on Kevin Lankinen down the stretch, and he’s been solid with a 2.59 GAA and .901 SV%, but the big thing here is that he’s not the difference-maker Sorokin can be when he’s locked in.
From a team standpoint, Vancouver actually scores slightly more with 2.79 GF/G vs. 2.73 GF/G for the Islanders, but New York has a small edge defensively when looking at their 2.96 GAA vs. 3.04 GAA.
Both teams are middle of the pack in special teams and discipline, though the Canucks give up fewer power-play goals overall. We don’t see the power play units winning this game as much as the 5-on-5 action.
The Islanders have the edge in recent head-to-head play as well. They took the first meeting of the season 5-2 back in November and have been the more consistent team at home. That’s not to say that the Canucks haven’t cleaned up what they needed to, but then again they’re not a drastically different team from that time, either.
Vancouver is coming off a shootout win over New Jersey and has won 3 of its last 5. They’ve also scored 3+ goals in 4 straight games to get those wins. The top line has definitely been producing, especially Quinn Hughes, who leads the team with 68 points. Brock Boeser continues to be quite a finisher, with 23 goals, and the Canucks are getting contributions from their depth as of late.
But this isn’t just about Vancouver’s recent scoring. They’ve demonstrated they can do that effectively. It’s also about their blue line, which continues to struggle against aggressive forechecking teams. And that’s exactly what the Islanders do well — especially at home.
New York is 5-2-3 over its last 10 and just pushed Columbus to a shootout loss, which could happen to any team. They’ve found ways to stay in tight games, and their +16 rating for Anders Lee — who also leads them with a decent 27 goals — shows just how steady their top-6 have been. Noah Dobson has been quietly excellent, too, with 26 assists on the season. So, they too have the offensive tools to get the job done.
If this comes down to execution and staying out of the box. Neither team is really equipped for special teams as the Islanders have the worst power play unit we’ve ever seen with 12.1% and the Canucks are in the middle of the pack with 22.1%. However, the Islanders allow fewer high-danger chances and that could be pivotal.
Both teams are playing close games lately, but New York has been slightly more reliable in one-goal matchups, and Sorokin gives them a better ceiling in between the pipes. No matter how you cut it, this is going to be a grueling game that stays close for all 60 minutes.
This game feels like it’ll come down to goaltending and possibly late-game execution. That leads us heavily toward the Islanders on the moneyline at -125. We’d much rather take them on the puck line at +225, but we don’t see it happening unless there’s a last-minute shot on an empty net. -125 is too easy of money to be let down like that.
They’ve already beaten Vancouver this season, they’re better at home, and Sorokin should give them the edge in any low-scoring scenario. Sure, Vancouver can score, but they’ve been leaky on their own end, and that’s a recipe for late-game trouble on the road.
Score Prediction: Islanders 3, Canucks 2
Best Bet: Islanders on the ML (-125)
The Canucks are playing well, but not well enough to trust against a team that's trending up in front of their home fans.