The Tampa Bay Lightning are rolling into tonight’s matchup with the Pittsburgh Penguins looking for a season sweep. Fortunately for them, they’re set up perfectly to get it done.
The 2 teams are undoubtedly heading in different directions — Tampa is gearing up for a playoff push as they sit comfortably at 3rd in the Atlantic Division while Pittsburgh is trying to stay afloat, though their hopes may all be for not.
The Lightning have already taken the first 2 games of the season series and are big favorites once again as they host this one at Amalie Arena, where they’ve been close to unbeatable in night games.
There’s plenty of time to get your bets in on this one, so we’re breaking down the odds, trends, and why the puck line is the right play for tonight’s matchup.
This game isn’t even close on paper, and the odds back that up.
The Lightning are -270 on the moneyline, while the Penguins sit at +220. The puckline is set at -1.5 in favor of Tampa Bay at near even odds at -105, and the total is 6.5, with the under juiced at -130.
Tampa Bay is 40-25-5 overall and an incredible 24-8-2 at home. On top of that, they’ve won 8 straight night games at Amalie Arena.
It’s not just home-ice comfort, either. Their offense is firing on all cylinders. The Lightning average 3.47 goals per game, which puts them well ahead of Pittsburgh’s dismal 2.94, and they’ve got some of the best finishers in the NHL like Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point to thank for it.
Kucherov is having a monster year, leading the team with 98 points which puts him 3rd in the NHL only behind MacKinnon and Draisaitl, while Point leads them in goals with 34.
To make things worse for the Pens, the Lightning have been lights out on the power play, converting at a 25.2% clip, and Pittsburgh’s penalty kill at 77.2% isn’t exactly built to stop them.
When these two teams met earlier this season, the results were clearly one-sided. Tampa took Game 1 in overtime 3-2, then dominated Game 2 5-2. In both games, the Lightning outplayed Pittsburgh in several key moments — and we don’t see why that trend shouldn’t hold.
Sidney Crosby continues to carry the Penguins with 78 points spanning 25 goals and 53 assists, but outside of him and Rickard Rakell — who leads the team with 32 goals — there’s not enough consistent production to take on heavyweight teams like Tampa Bay. Sure, Rakell has been solid lately, recording points in 6 of his last 7 games, but Pittsburgh simply doesn’t have the kind of offensive depth Tampa Bay does. That’s probably going to come back and bite them.
The Penguins are 29-32-11 and trending downward. This is especially true on the road where they’re just 11-18-6. They’ve lost 4 of their last 5, including a shootout loss to Florida and regulation defeats to Columbus, New Jersey, and the Islanders.
Their defense hasn’t been able to stop much of anything, either. Pittsburgh is giving up a whopping 3.54 goals per game, and their goaltending has been far less than reliable. Alex Nedeljkovic and Tristan Jarry both own save percentages under .900 (.893 SV% and .895 SV%, respectively), and their combined GAA is above 3.1.
It’s not just about poor defense — the Penguins' PK unit has struggled on the road, and with Tampa’s power play rolling, that’s a bad combination.
As we mentioned, Tampa Bay has won 8 straight night games at Amalie Arena. They’re coming off a dominant 6-2 win over Boston and are 5-4-1 in their last 10 overall. While it seems like they’re slumping right now, keep in mind that 3 of those losses came against playoff teams.
They’ve covered the -1.5 puckline in their last game vs. Pittsburgh this year and will be looking to repeat that tonight to seal the deal.
While Pittsburgh is 7-3 against the puck line in its last 10, that stat doesn’t tell the full story. They’ve had some close wins over some of the weaker teams in the NHL, but against playoff-caliber competition like Tampa Bay — especially on the road — they fell flat. They gave up 4+ goals in 4 of their last 5 games, and the Lightning are more than capable of doing that again.
Add in the goalie edge. Andrei Vasilevskiy is one of the best netminders in the NHL with a 33-19-3 record a 2.25 GAA and a .920 SV%. He’s been sharp at home and remains one of the most trusted goalies in high-leverage games. The Penguins simply don’t have that in the net. Nedeljkovic, who will most likely be between the pipes for tonight’s game is a lowly 13-14-5 on the season.
The moneyline isn’t worth playing at -270 unless you’re tossing it into a parlay, which we never recommend. However, the puck line at -1.5 at -105 odds has some decent value, especially considering Tampa Bay’s ability to pull away late in games.
The Lightning's average winning margin is 2.8 goals, and Pittsburgh's average losing margin is 2.6. The numbers line up almost exactly with a 2-goal Lightning win. So, not only do the numbers make sense, but the Lightning is a top-tier playoff-caliber team that can light the lamp more often than not.
The scoring leaders for both teams give another clue. Tampa’s top guns — Kucherov and Point — are getting far more help than Crosby is in Pittsburgh. And let’s not ignore the fact that Sidney Crosby has scored in 10 straight games vs. the Lightning. Sure, that might help the overall total, but it won’t be enough to flip the game’s outcome.
BettorsInsider Prediction: Lightning 5, Penguins 2
Best Bet: Lightning -1.5 at -105
This game sets up exactly how the last one did. A high-powered home team, an ice-cold opponent, and an undeniable goaltending mismatch. Tampa Bay checks every box here and they’ll easily get the win with some insurance to boot.
If you’re backing anyone tonight, ride the team that’s dominant at home, scoring in droves, and already handled this matchup twice. Tampa Bay on the puck line is the best play if you want to pad that bankroll.