The Washington Capitals are welcoming the Philadelphia Flyers to Capital One Arena tonight and with Washington already owning a 3-0 season series lead, the Flyers are looking to avoid a sweep.
Unfortunately for the Flyers, the odds — and recent performances — tell us that another Capitals win is likely and they’ll take the series 4-0.
Can the Flyers pull off an upset, or will Washington continue to dominate? While this game is a battle between the 1st place team in the Metropolitan Division vs the last-place team, it doesn’t mean there isn’t money to be made on this game. So we’re breaking it all down, from betting odds to team trends and our best bet for tonight’s Metropolitan Division battle.
Washington comes into this game as the heavy favorite at -240 on the moneyline, while the Flyers are listed at +200 to win outright. Nothing about that surprises us, however, the game total is set at 5.5 goals, with the over priced at -120 and the under at EVEN odds which does surprise us a bit.
The Capitals have been on fire against divisional opponents as they’ve won 9 straight games within the Metropolitan Division. They’ve also been dominant at home, posting a 22-7-6 record at Capital One Arena which is one of the best home records in the NHL.
On the other hand, the Flyers are trending in the exact opposite direction.
They have lost 7 of their last 10 games and are struggling to generate any amount of offense. Their 1-4 record in their last 5 games and the last 2 being shut out doesn’t inspire much confidence heading into a tough road matchup against the best team in the NHL.
The Caps have been one of the most complete teams in the league this season and it’s easy to see why.
Their offense is clicking, their defense is undoubtedly solid, and they have one of the best goalies in the NHL, Logan Thompson.
Washington’s dominant attack is led by Dylan Strome with his 67 points spanning 22 goals and 45 assists, who has emerged as a key playmaker. Of course, Alex Ovechkin with his 34 goals remains a constant threat, especially on the power play. He’s still in the chase for Wayne Gretzky's all-time goal record.
Aliaksei Protas has been a huge contributor as well. He leads the team and the league in plus-minus at +42, showing his ability to control play at both ends of the ice.
Washington’s ability to create offense early in games has been one of the biggest keys to their success. They’ve consistently gotten off to quick starts, which has allowed them to dictate play and force opponents to chase the game.
Defensively, the Capitals have been rock-solid as well. They’ve allowed just 2.5 goals per game over their last 10 games. They’ve also been especially stingy at home, limiting teams to an average of just 2.3 goals per game at Capital One Arena — another NHL best.
A big reason for their success is goaltender Logan Thompson. He has a 30-4-5 record and a .917 SV% which places him among the league’s best netminders this season. He’s been dominant at home, giving the Caps a major advantage in this matchup. Backup Charlie Lindgren and his 15-11-3 record and .899 SV% have also provided solid support when needed. Given the lopsidedness of this matchup, we might see Lindgren get the start tonight.
With a strong defensive core and elite goaltending, Washington has been shutting down opposing teams and making life difficult for offenses. They’re the best team in the league and it’s not even close. The odds of the Caps winning the Metropolitan Division are currently at -4000 which is the best among any division.
The Flyers have had a tough stretch recently, losing 7 of their last 10 games.
Their offense has been inconsistent, and their defense has been nothing short of unreliable, putting them in a difficult position against a dominant team like Washington.
While Travis Konecny and his 65 points have been a standout, the Flyers don’t have enough depth to keep up with high-powered teams. Outside of Konecny, they’ve struggled to find any amount of reliable offensive production.
Philadelphia is averaging just 2.7 GF/G over their last 10 games, and they’ve been shut out or held to one goal 4 times in that span. They haven’t scored a regulation goal in 7 straight periods. Against a disciplined Capitals defense, those apparent struggles will most likely continue.
Goaltending has been another problem for Philly.
Samuel Ersson who has a .886 SV% has been inconsistent, while Ivan Fedotov and his .887 SV% haven’t provided much of an upgrade. The Flyers rank among the bottom teams in save percentage and goals allowed per game, making it difficult for them to win tight matchups.
Ersson will need to have a career game to give Philadelphia a chance, but based on his recent form, we just don’t see that happening.
The Flyers have also had issues playing on the road where they’re posting a 12-14-7 record. Playing in Washington, against one of the NHL’s best home teams, doesn’t look great for their chances.
Everything simply points to another Washington win in this one and they’ll add yet another 2 points to their already solid record.
The Capitals have been nothing shy of dominant at home, they’re on a roll against division opponents, and they’ve already beaten the Flyers 3 times this season. They’re dialed in and know how to beat this team.
Philadelphia’s struggles in between the pipes and their lack of offensive firepower make it hard to see them keeping up in this game. The Flyers have also been one of the worst teams ATS in their last 10 games, while Washington has covered more often than not.
BettorsInsider Prediction: Capitals 4, Flyers 1
Best Bet: Capitals -1.5 (+105)
Washington has won each of the last 3 matchups by 2+ goals, and given the way both teams are trending, that’s the best value play for the odds. The over 5.5 at -120 is also worth a look, as the Capitals have hit that mark in 6 of their last 10 games.
We expect another convincing win for the Capitals, who should have no problem taking care of business on home ice.