The Minnesota Wild and Seattle Kraken face off tonight in a matchup at Xcel Energy Center. Minnesota, currently sitting at 38-25-5, is the home favorite with a -180 moneyline, while the Kraken, struggling to get some traction is sitting at 30-34-5, are listed as +150 underdogs. The total for this game is set at 5.5 goals, with the over slightly favored by the bookmakers at -120.
Minnesota is coming off an absolutely solid 3-1 win over the Los Angeles Kings, one of the best teams in the NHL, picking up their 3rd win in the last 5 games. They have been fairly reliable at home this season and continue to push for a stronger position in the Central Division playoff race.
Seattle, on the other hand, has been dismal on the road with a 14-19-0 record but exploded offensively in their last outing as they crushed the Chicago Blackhawks 8-2. The Blackhawks, however, are one of the worst teams in the NHL, so let’s not get ahead of ourselves. While the Kraken have shown a few flashes of dominance, their defensive issues remain a concern and that just might be their undoing against a solid Wild.
This will be the 3rd meeting between these teams this season, with the series tied a game a piece.
Seattle won the first game in a 5-4 shootout thriller back in October, while Minnesota responded with a 4-3 victory earlier this month. Sure, both games were close, but the Wild have been the more consistent team as of late.
Minnesota has been great at home, using their solid defense and goaltending to control games. The Wild have allowed only 2.84 goals per game this season, which puts them in the top 10 of the NHL, compared to Seattle’s 3.01, which puts them in the bottom 10. That defensive edge could be the difference tonight, especially with the Kraken struggling to find consistency on the road.
The Wild are currently in a battle for playoff positioning in the Central Division and cannot afford to drop games against teams outside the postseason picture. Every point counts as they wrap up the final dozen games.
Seattle, meanwhile, is running out of time to make a playoff push in the Pacific Division, sitting well behind the top teams. As of now, they’re 10 points out of a wild card spot and sportsbooks have them at +2200 odds to even make the playoffs. At this point, we can effectively count them out of the race.
Seattle’s offense is led by Chandler Stephenson, who has 48 points this season which includes 37 assists. Eeli Tolvanen has been their top goal scorer with just 21 goals, but the Kraken’s offensive production has been inconsistent beyond their top 6 and even those aren’t very good. They average 3.01 GF/G, but their defensive lapses have hurt them the most, especially on the road.
Minnesota counters with Matt Boldy and Kirill Kaprizov, their top 2 offensive threats. Boldy has 56 points on the season which includes 21 goals, while Kaprizov has matched him with his own 21 goals as well.
It just goes to show that neither of these teams is loaded with offensive firepower, which tells us we should expect a lower-scoring game.
The Wild have a slightly lower scoring average than Seattle at just 2.71 goals per game, but their more structured defensive play and netminders have kept them competitive against some of the tougher opponents.
We think goaltending will be a major factor in this game. Of course, Minnesota has the advantage in net and it’s not even close.
Filip Gustavsson has been steady with a decent .915 SV% and a 2.57 GAA, while Marc-André Fleury has also provided reliable starts when needed.
Seattle’s situation in goal has been much more inconsistent. Joey Daccord has been respectable at times with a .909 SV%, but Philipp Grubauer has struggled with a .872 SV% and a dismal 3.61 GAA. If Grubauer gets the start, Minnesota could have an even bigger edge than expected. If Seattle were contending for a playoff slot, we would probably see Daccord tonight, but that’s not a guarantee at this point.
Minnesota’s ability to play structured hockey at home has been one of their biggest strengths this season.
While they have had some inconsistent stretches, how they’ve been playing over the last 10 games tells us they should have the upper hand in this game and we’re not expecting a close one.
Seattle’s road struggles and defensive inconsistency make it difficult to trust them against a more balanced Wild team.
BettorsInsider’s Prediction: Minnesota Wild 4, Seattle Kraken 2
Best Bet: Wild -1.5 (+150)
The best bet for this matchup is Minnesota to win by 2+. Taking the Wild -1.5 on the puck line at plus money offers some decent value, given their ability to close out games at home. The Kraken’s offensive explosion against Chicago is unlikely to repeat against a much stronger defensive squad in Minnesota.
We expect the Wild to control the pace of play and take advantage of Seattle’s weaker defensive structure. This is a great spot for Minnesota to continue building momentum as they push for the playoffs.