The Calgary Flames are headed to the iconic Madison Square Garden for a big non-conference matchup against the New York Rangers, and while the odds favor the home team by a bit, Calgary has plenty of reasons to believe they can steal this one and that’s who we’re going with.
The Rangers sit at -225 on the moneyline, making them the favorites by the bookmakers, while the Flames, listed at +210, will need to defy many expectations to grab 2 critical points in the playoff race.
Both teams are fighting for their postseason lives with about 15 games remaining in the season. The Rangers are barely holding onto a wild-card spot in the Eastern Conference, while the Flames are in a similar position out West, but sitting just on the outside looking in.
Every game from here on out has some seriously massive implications, and that desperation could work in Calgary’s favor.
The Flames come into tonight’s game looking to snap a dismal 3-game losing streak, but their recent performances haven’t been as bad as they seem.
They pushed the Dallas Stars, one of the best teams in the NHL, to OT in their most recent loss and were right there with Vancouver before falling in a shootout. Those are some tough teams to beat. They also have some confidence from their last meeting with the Rangers, which ended with a 3-2 win for Calgary. Of course, that was back in November, but it’s just a reminder that this matchup is far from as one-sided as the odds make it out to be.
New York has been the better team over the course of the season, but they have not been dominant at home. On top of that, their goaltending has been shaky at times.
Igor Shesterkin is widely regarded as one of the league’s best goalies, but his play this year has been relatively inconsistent throughout most of the season. He has a .907 save percentage and a 2.80 goals-against average, which are good but far from what we’d consider elite numbers. He has also given up 3+ goals in 4 of his last 5 starts.
All of this means that if Shesterkin isn’t as sharp, Calgary has a real chance to capitalize and get the 2 points from this game.
While the Rangers have a bigger name in goal, Dustin Wolf has done his job in the net for the Flames.
The rookie goaltender owns a .912 SV% and a 2.62 GAA, making him one of the more reliable options Calgary has looked to this season. He may not have Shesterkin’s career-long resume, but his play this year suggests he can hold his own in this matchup.
If he can make a few key stops early and keep the Rangers to less than 3 goals, Calgary’s offense will have an opportunity to do enough to win.
Shesterkin, meanwhile, hasn’t really been his usual dominant self. His numbers are pedestrian for a goalie of his caliber, and he’s allowed way too many soft goals from the slot at times this season.
If the Flames can put some early pressure on him and get traffic in front, they might be able to take advantage of some of his recent struggles.
Jonathan Huberdeau will need to be the difference-maker offensively for the Flames.
He leads the Flames in points with 50 on the season so far, and he’s proven he can step up in big games like the one he’ll have tonight. He’ll go up against a Rangers team that relies heavily on Artemi Panarin, who has his own 72 points and 29 goals on the year.
Of course, slowing down Panarin won’t be easy, but Calgary has fairly played well defensively against elite scorers in their past few games. If they can keep Panarin and Adam Fox in check, they’ll force the Rangers to find offense from their secondary scorers — and depth hasn’t been a strength this year.
Calgary’s offensive depth will also be key if they want to get the win. They can’t afford to rely solely on Huberdeau. Players like MacKenzie Weegar, who happens to lead the team in helpers, need to step up and create high-danger chances.
The Flames don’t have the same offensive firepower as New York, but they can get creative and find ways to grind out goals against a Rangers defense that has been far from airtight.
The Flames can also take some confidence from how New York has performed in this exact situation.
The Rangers have been home favorites multiple times against teams on losing streaks this year, and they’ve lost all 4 of those matchups. So, it goes to show that MSG is the home of redemptions for those on a bad streak. That’s an alarming trend for New York backers, and it tells us that Calgary is alive for the upset.
The Rangers have also struggled in low-scoring games, and with their offense failing to explode on a consistent basis, this could be a grind-it-out type of contest that plays well for the Flames.
Another trend that works in Calgary’s favor is how the Rangers perform at home following a loss.
In their last 10 games after a home defeat, every single one has gone under the total goals line. That means a lower-scoring, defensive battle — exactly the kind of game the Flames can win. If Calgary’s defense holds firm as we expect them to and Wolf makes the necessary saves, they don’t need to score much to leave MSG with 2 points and tied for the 2nd Western Conference wild card slot.
With everything on the line, this is a spot where Calgary can undoubtedly rise to the occasion.
They’ve been competitive even in losses, their goaltending is strong enough to keep them in the game even against some stars like Panarin and Fox. On top of that, New York hasn’t been reliable in this exact scenario.
The Flames are desperate, and desperation can fuel a team to a big win which they need. The odds may not be in their favor, but the situation is.
BettorsInsider Prediction: Calgary Flames 3, New York Rangers 1
Best Bet: Flames on the ML (+210)
This is a must-win game for the Flames, and they have the right pieces in place to get the job done.
With Dustin Wolf holding steady in between the pipes and Jonathan Huberdeau leading the way offensively, Calgary without a doubt has what it takes to pull off the upset. It won’t be an easy game, and it might not be pretty, but at +210, the value is too good for us to pass up.
The Flames take this one in a tight battle, earning a massive 2 points in the playoff chase.