The Winnipeg Jets welcome the Dallas Stars to Canada Life Centre tonight for a huge Central Division matchup. Of the 6 games on the slate tonight, this is easily the best game of the bunch.
Winnipeg, sitting at a comfortable 45-17-4, holds the division’s top spot, while Dallas, with a 42-20-2 record, is pushing to close the gap. Both of these teams will undoubtedly make the playoffs, but now they’re fighting for positioning. Not only does that make for some good hockey with the Jets looking to maintain their dominance at home and the Stars aiming to extend their recent hot streak, but it also means there are plenty of bets to be made.
The sportsbooks have Winnipeg as the favorite at -130 on the moneyline, while Dallas isn’t too far back sitting at +115. The total is set at 5.5 goals which only highlights both teams’ strong goaltending and defensive play.
Given the stakes, this one is shaping up to be a high-intensity battle.
The Jets have been outstanding at home this season, winning 10 of their last 11 home games against Central Division opponents. Their defensive structure has been one of the biggest reasons for that success.
Winnipeg allows just 2.30 goals per game, the best in the NHL. A huge part of that defensive dominance comes from Connor Hellebuyck, who is most likely the best netminder in the game. He has been nothing short of elite this season. He boasts a 38-9-3 record, an insane .927 SV%, and a 1.99 GAA. If he plays at his usual level, Dallas will have a tough time cracking Winnipeg’s defense.
Winnipeg’s offense is led by Kyle Connor, who has racked up 81 points spanning 33 goals and 48 assists. He’s been a force on both ends of the ice, creating high-danger chances and finishing at an elite level. Mark Scheifele has also been a key piece of the top 6, leading the team with 35 goals, and his ability to generate offense in tight games could be the difference in a game between 2 powerhouses like these.
Winnipeg’s power play is also the best in the NHL at 31.5%, however, with Dallas boasting the best penalty kill in the NHL at 84.5%, the Jets could struggle to take advantage.
The Stars come into this game playing some of their best hockey of the season and we think they’re only going to get better in the final stretch.
They’ve won 8 of their last 10 games and have been scoring at a high rate on top of that.
Dallas averages 3.42 goals per game, slightly less than Winnipeg, and has a deep offensive group that can score at any moment. Jason Robertson leads the way with 66 points, while Matt Duchene has been a key playmaker with 41 assists on the year. On top of those 2 stars, they also acquired Mikko Rantanen at the trade deadline to make one of the most lethal top 6 units in the league.
Dallas will need all 3 players to be at their best against a stingy Winnipeg defense.
While the Stars’ offense has been rolling, goaltending has been a bit of a mixed bag.
Jake Oettinger, their #1 netminder, has a 30-14-2 record with a .909 SV% and a 2.48 GAA. He’s been fairly solid, but not at the elite level that Hellebuyck has played at. Dallas will need him to step up in a game where defensive discipline will be crucial.
These teams have split their regular-season series so far, with Winnipeg winning the first matchup 4-1 and Dallas responding with a 3-1 victory. Both games stayed under the total of 5.5 goals, which is what happens when you bring 2 of the best teams together.
Each of the last 6 meetings between the Jets and Stars has gone under the total goals line. Both teams rely heavily on strong blue lines and elite goaltending, which makes it difficult for high-scoring games to develop.
Winnipeg has been the best home team in the Central Division. They’ve consistently taken care of business in their own building. Dallas, however, has been one of the strongest road teams in the NHL, making this a matchup between 2 teams that thrive in these situations. Either way, it makes for a close matchup.
One interesting betting trend is that underdogs have covered the puck line in each of the last 5 games played in Winnipeg. That means that even if Winnipeg wins, this could be another close, low-scoring game that comes down to the final minutes of the 3rd period or even OT.
This is a true heavyweight battle between 2 teams that just might meet again in the playoffs.
Winnipeg’s defense and goaltending give them the edge in tonight’s game, especially with Hellebuyck playing at such a high level. The Jets have been nothing less than dominant at home, and their ability to slow down high-powered offenses like the Stars has been a major strength all season.
Dallas has the firepower to keep this game close, and with the addition of Rantanen, it could make things more interesting. However, Winnipeg’s defense should control the pace of play.
With the Stars also playing strong defensively, it’s hard to see this turning into a high-scoring game despite the big names on both lineups. Given the trends, this feels like another game where the under is the best play.
BettorsInsider Prediction: Winnipeg 3, Dallas 1
Best Bet: Under 5.5 goals (-102)
We think Winnipeg should get the win in a tight contest. The Jets’ defensive edge and home-ice advantage make them the stronger pick, but Dallas will likely keep it close.