Breaking Down the Odds for the 2025 4 Nations Face-Off

Canada and the U.S. are co-favorites, but can Sweden or Finland pull off an upset? Here's a look at the odds, key players, and what to expect in this high-stakes tournament.
4 Nations Face Off odds and analysis
We've got the best odds and analysis for the 4 Nations Face Off NHL tournament
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The 2025 4 Nations Face-Off, which is replacing the NHL All-Star Game, is set to be one of the biggest international hockey events of the year and once you see who’s playing, it’s easy to see why.

With NHL superstars representing Canada, the United States, Sweden, and Finland, the tournament will showcase the best hockey talent in the world as they battle for supremacy.

The 4-team tournament will run from February 12 to 20, with games hosted at Montreal’s Bell Centre and Boston’s TD Garden.

Oddsmakers have already got their hands dirty as they have pegged Canada and the United States as co-favorites sitting at +160, followed by Sweden at +400 and Finland at +900.

Canada: A Star-Studded Powerhouse

  • Odds to Win: +160

It’s no surprise that Canada enters this tournament as one of the favorites. With a roster stacked with some of the best players in the world, it’s full of future Hall of Famers and elite NHL talent. This team has everything needed to dominate.

Jon Cooper, a two-time Stanley Cup champion, will be behind the bench. He’s bringing his decades of experience and ability to manage superstars.

Sidney Crosby will wear the ‘C’ for this team. Even in the later stages of his career, he remains one of the most complete players in the 4 Nations Face Off.

Alongside him, Connor McDavid and Cale Makar serve as the alternate captains. This makes this one of the most talented leadership groups in international hockey history.

McDavid, a three-time Hart Trophy winner, is the fastest and most dynamic player in the game — some even call him the best player in the world. His ability to take over shifts will be a major factor, especially in high-stakes moments. Makar, a Norris Trophy-winning defenseman, brings his elite puck-moving skills and offensive firepower from the blue line.

Canada’s biggest strength really lies in its depth.

With multiple forwards capable of scoring 40+ goals in the NHL and defensemen who can control play at both ends of the ice, they’ll undoubtedly be the team to beat.

The main question is goaltending. While Canada does have some solid options, it lacks a true elite netminder like in past international tournaments.

If an opposing goalie gets hot, and there’s a good chance once you see some of these names, Canada could face a tougher road than expected.

United States: A New Generation of American Talent

  • Odds to Win: +160

The United States enters the 4 Nations Face-Off with arguably the best roster they’ve ever assembled for an international tournament. Like Canada, they sit at a solid +160 odds, and it’s easy to see why.

Mike Sullivan, a two-time Stanley Cup champion with the Penguins, will coach a group filled with undeniable superstar talent.

Auston Matthews wears the captain’s ‘C.’ As a 3-time Rocket Richard Trophy winner, he will undoubtedly be the team’s top-scoring threat. His ability to score in clutch moments makes him one of the most dangerous players in the tournament.

Joining Matthews is Matthew Tkachuk, a gritty forward that always steps up when the stakes are high. Tkachuk brings a physical edge that will be one of the biggest factors in a short tournament format — if the teams are playing 100%. Jack Hughes, one of the NHL’s most exciting young stars, will deliver some creative spark and elite playmaking.

Defensively, Charlie McAvoy anchors the blue line. He provides strong two-way play and can read the opposing offense with the best of them.

The U.S. has solid goaltending options, which could be an advantage if Canada struggles in that department. With Connor Hellebuyck in the crease for the big games, this could be the deciding factor that tips the scales in favor of the US.

We think that the biggest challenge for the Americans will be handling the pressure. This team has all the tools to win, but they’ll need to prove they can step up against Canada. They’re a team that has historically dominated international play.

The February 15 showdown between these two teams will likely determine seeding for the final.

Sweden: A Well-Balanced Threat

  • Odds to Win: +400

Sweden comes in with +400 odds. It’s not the best, but it makes them an underdog compared to North America’s powerhouses. However, we don’t think this team should be overlooked.

Victor Hedman captains the Swedish squad with a strong mix of veteran leadership and young talent. As a former Norris and Conn Smythe Trophy winner, Hedman is one of the best defensemen in the world. He’s already notched 44 points in 53 games for the Lightning this year. Alongside him, Erik Karlsson brings an offensive element from the blue line, and Mattias Ekholm provides defensive stability. It’s the defense that might take Sweden further into this tournament than you’d expect.

Offensively, the Maple Leafs right wing, William Nylander, will be a key playmaker. He’s capable of taking over games with his skill and vision.

Sweden doesn’t have the same star power as Canada or the U.S., but they thrive in structured, disciplined hockey.

Goaltending could be a big factor in Sweden’s success. If they get some elite performances in the net, they have the defensive structure to grind out wins.

While Nylander and Lucas Raymond could deliver some spark, the challenge will be keeping up with the offensive firepower of Canada and the United States.

Finland: A Dangerous Underdog

  • Odds to Win: +900

Finland enters with the longest odds at +900, but this team has made a habit of proving doubters wrong in international games.

Aleksander Barkov, a two-time Selke Trophy winner, will be the captain of the team. His elite 2-way game makes him one of the best centers in hockey. Next to him, Mikko Rantanen provides a big scoring punch, and Sebastian Aho brings even more dynamic offensive ability.

Finland’s strength is their ability to play a structured, disciplined style. While they have some stars, they do not have the same depth as the other teams. However, their commitment to defense and strong goaltending could allow them to pull off upsets.

The biggest challenge for Finland will be scoring enough to keep up with teams like Canada and the U.S. If they can slow the game down just a bit and capitalize on counterattacks, they have a shot at some upsets and making the final.

Who Has the Edge?

Canada and the U.S. are rightly co-favorites. Both teams have the most elite scoring, strong defensive cores, and deep rosters that can outmatch most opponents. Their February 15 later this week matchup will be must-watch hockey. If both teams take care of business in the round-robin, we think they could meet again in the final.

Sweden has the structure and goaltending to make a deep run. The biggest issue is that they’ll need to find ways to score against elite teams to remain competitive. Finland, while the biggest underdog on paper, has some serious upset potential. This is especially true if their defensive game frustrates opponents which it undoubtedly could.

This tournament is shaping up to be a showcase of not just the best players in the NHL, but the world. With national pride on the line, every game will be high-stakes.

Whether Canada or the U.S. claims the title, or if Sweden or Finland pulls off an upset, fans are in for a thrilling week of hockey with tons of bets to be made.

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