Let's get to cranking on some Anytime TD props for the AFC and NFL Title Games of the NFL Playoffs. It's been a nice season so far. Our staff is sitting at 41-63 for a profit of 8.49 units, so we're looking to add to the ledger. That just goes to show you the power of plus money plays!
Let's keep the good times rolling. Enjoy the action and best of luck with your bets, folks! Here's what's on tap for this weekend.
(AZ/CO/IL/IN/KY/LA/NC/NJ/OH/PA/TN/VA) or 1-800-BETS OFF (IA). 21+ only (18+ in KY). Must be present in AZ/CO/IA/IL/IN/KY/LA (select parishes)/NC/NJ/OH/PA/TN/VA. New customers only. T&Cs, time limits, and exclusions apply. Referral Code is used for marketing/tracking purposes only. Minimum $10 deposit required. Minimum odds -500 of greater. Bonus Bets wager excluded from returns. T&CS, time limits and exclusions apply.
LAR at SEA - 6:30 PM EST
Let's be real, there aren’t too many options on the board now that we’re in the Conference Championships, but this week I’m taking Puka Nacua at +115 because this is exactly the kind of spot where his high usage turns into points. Even in a grindy playoff game last week against the Bears, he still saw 10 targets, and when you're talking TDs, that matters more than raw yardage. That’s without a doubt WR1 trust in a tight, high-leverage environment.
Over the entire season, he put up 129 catches, 1,700+ yards, and 10 TDs, and more importantly, he was one of Stafford’s top red-zone options. That puts him as one of the best, if not the best receivers in the NFL. He's a big reason the Rams made it this far.
On top of all of that, Seattle hasn’t shut him down either — they let him go for 7 catches and 75 yards earlier this year, and that was really just them surviving, not exactly solving him. Their run defense is elite at 3.7 yards per carry allowed, which usually forces the Rams to throw when they get close, and that’s where Puka becomes Stafford’s first read.
In a close game where McVay loves to lean on his most reliable guy near the goal line, Puka’s volume, red-zone role, and Stafford’s trust make him one of the cleanest anytime TD picks on the board. At plus money, this one is a steal.
NE at DEN - 3 PM EST
This is way too good a price on Mr. Stevenson, as most of the big boy books have this in the +110 to +115 range. We're often told that parents shouldn't play favorites. They should love each child equally.
Unfortunately, we're human, and we don't always live up to that expectation. Along those lines, Mike Vrabel doesn't love his running backs equally. He prefers Stevenson over hotshot rookie Treveyon Henderson.
Stevenson is in great current form. He has scored 6 touchdowns over his last 5 games, and he's a threat to score either as a rusher or a receiver. Denver does a great job of defending the run, so the matchup isn't ideal for Rhamondre. Nevertheless, I think he has around a 50/50 chance of finding the end zone, so we'll put a unit on his Anytime TD. Enjoy Championship Weekend, and best of luck!
LAR at SEA - 6:30 PM EST
As you'd expect this time of the year, there is little to no value in the Anytime TD market this week. I considered playing Kenneth Walker's first TD at +450 but decided to stay conservative with Davante Adams.
Adams had 14 touchdowns in 14 regular-season games but has failed to score in either of the Rams' postseason games, setting him up to be a decent value pick this week at +130.
The Seahawks' defense has been unbelievable over the last 3 weeks, but the Rams were able to score 37 points in Seattle just one month ago. Adams was inactive for that matchup, but Stafford put up 457 yards and 3 touchdowns, indicating the Rams could find some success in the air this weekend.
NE at DEN - 3 PM EST
The meatball Bears' picks have come to an end. What a run. So, we're back to using our brains instead of our hearts. Or...maybe we just take an ex-bear. When New England gets into the red zone, they tend to simplify things, which usually means leaning on their tight end.
Henry has become a solid target near the goal line for Drake Maye, and against a Broncos defense that’s been vulnerable to tight ends in scoring situations, this sets up nicely for a decent plus-money anytime TD play.
By now, I'm sure the whole country knows that Denver will be without Bo Nix this week and beyond if they get there. If Denver's offense can't keep up with New England, this thing could get out of hand quickly.
The main reason I went with Henry instead of Diggs is his ability in both short and deep situations. I think the "big play" will be limited with the weather likely to be Arctic-like. I'm expecting New England to keep the passes short and run a lot. Run the old "Tom Brady Special" of the 6–9-yard slant routes to keep Maye in a rhythm.
Denver's run defense is solid, and its pass defense is coming off a monster day against Josh Allen and Buffalo, but that was at home. When New England inevitably gets to the red zone, Henry's the de facto safety valve option.